MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil’s trade suffering the impacts of lower prices for commodity exports and rise in imports

The February trade deficit was driven by a decline in exports and a sharp rise in imports, mainly due to a US$ 2.7 billion oil platform purchases.

Brazil’s trade balance during February experienced a monthly deficit of US$ 323.7 million, the first since January 2022, (US$ 59,1 million). This compares with a trade surplus of US$ 5.13 billion in the same month a year ago. However despite the negative result, Brazil maintained a trade surplus of US$1.9 billion for the first two months of the year, according to Valor Economico, the leading financial media of South America’s leading economy.

The monthly trade deficit was driven by a decline in exports and a sharp rise in imports, mainly due to a US$ 2.7 billion oil platform purchases. Brazil’s exports in February totaled US$ 22.929 billion, down 1.8% from the same month in 2024, while imports soared 27.6% to US$ 23.253 billion.

On the export side, lower international prices for iron ore, oil, soybeans, and sugar were the primary drivers of the decline. However, higher export volumes of coffee, pulp, and beef partially offset the overall drop.

Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by oil industry acquisitions, which amounted to US$ 2.675 billion in February—compared to just US$16.39 million in the same month last year. Purchases of engines and vehicles also increased. Excluding the oil platform import, total imports for the month would have stood at US$ 20.6 billion, roughly in line with historical trends.

In terms of trade volume, the amount of goods exported rose 1.4%, led by fuel, sugar, and vehicles, but average prices dropped 3.6% compared to February 2024. On the import side, volumes jumped 20.2%, while average prices declined 6.1%, indicating that increased foreign purchases were driven by Brazil’s consumption fostered by generous government handouts and oil platform imports.

As to performances by sectors, agriculture saw a slight recovery, with export volumes down 0.8% in February compared to the same month in 2024, while average prices increased by 2%.

Regarding the extractive industry, (minerals and crude oil), volumes fell 11.7%, and average prices declined 17.8%. ON the bright side the manufacturing industry was the exception, posting a 7% increase in export volume and a 0.8% rise in average prices.

In an overall scenario of 2025 trade balance projection, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services anticipated in January that the government expects a trade surplus between US$ 60 billion and US$ 80 billion, with exports ranging from US$ 320 billion to US$ 360 billion and imports between US$ 260 billion and US$ 280 billion. Traditionally, the ministry releases annual trade forecasts in April, with updates in July and October.

Meanwhile the Focus Bulletin, a weekly survey of market analysts published by the Central Bank, projects a trade surplus of US$ 76.8 billion for 2025. In 2024, Brazil recorded a trade surplus of US$ 74.176 billion, with exports totaling US$ 337.046 billion and imports reaching US$ 262.869 billion.