MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Poll shows Lula would easily beat Bolsonaro's son in runoff

Lula's opposition would rather pick someone not from the Bolsonaro family, such as Flávio, Datafolha found

A Datafolha poll released this weekend showed that incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva would beat Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, -a son of the incarcerated former President Jair Bolsonaro- by at least 15 percentage points in a potential runoff: 51% to 36%.

The survey was released after the former president designated his son as the family's candidate for the 2026 presidential election. The Datafolha poll indicates that the confirmation of Flávio Bolsonaro was seen as favorable news for President Lula's reelection prospects.

The study also found Lula just five 5 points ahead if his opponent were São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a former Bolsonaro ally favored by some market sectors.

Flávio Bolsonaro's candidacy was met with a sharp reaction in financial markets, with the São Paulo stock exchange closing down 4.31%, its biggest single-day drop since 2021. Analysts suggest the markets and a crucial “center” electorate are eager to support an anti-PT candidate who is not a member of the Bolsonaro family.

Despite his stronger position against Flávio Bolsonaro, the poll shows President Lula faces challenges regarding his current administration's performance, his disapproval rating standing at 37% against a favorable image of 32%.

In a first-round scenario featuring the confirmed candidates, the poll showed Lula getting 41% of the vote, Flávio Bolsonaro 18%, and Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema -running on an independent ticket- 6%, with 13% of respondents casting a blank or invalid vote.

Jair Bolsonaro was recently sentenced to 27 years in prison for attempted coup, with his son now confirming his pre-candidacy with the endorsement of the Liberal Party.

US President Donald Trump's “extraordinary tariff attack” against Brazil, launched in repudiation of the legal proceedings against Bolsonaro, is viewed by analysts as having inadvertently strengthened President Lula, who handled the situation carefully.

Lula's image reportedly suffered a blow following a controversial and bloody security operation in Rio de Janeiro, led by a Bolsonaro-aligned governor, that left over a hundred people dead in two favelas. Security remains a noted weakness for the current government.

Zema has joined de Freitas and Rio de Janeiro Governor Claudio Castro in forming a league of governors, potentially signaling further fragmentation within the right-wing opposition.