MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Maduro's fall becomes campaign asset for Flávio Bolsonaro

Brazil's TSE is withholding evidence of Lula's ties with Maduro's regime, which will come out anyway in the US, Eduardo Bolsonaro noted (R)

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's sons Eduardo and Flávio foresee the latter's victory in this year's elections after the ties between deposed Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are exposed in the trial underway in New York.

“When Maduro fell, I texted Flávio Bolsonaro: you are elected president, because we know that a lot of things will come out of Maduro,” Eduardo was quoted as telling his Senator brother and presidential hopeful.

Brazilian political analysts see Lula became quite vulnerable, given his historical support for Maduro and his refusal to label the Venezuelan regime a “dictatorship,” making the Workers' Party (PT) leader an easy target to be deemed an ally of an alleged narco-terrorist.

While Brazil's career diplomats are wary of Maduro's regime, the PT leadership remains ideologically loyal to the “Bolivarian” movement. Additionally, Lula has condemned the US raid as a “dangerous precedent” and a violation of Caracas' sovereignty, a stance difficult to uphold with thousands of Venezuelan refugees celebrating in plain sight. In other words, Maduro's fall has become an immediate “campaign asset” for the Brazilian Right.

Eduardo Bolsonaro predicted that Maduro's trial would uncover damaging evidence of financial and drug-trafficking links between the Maduro regime and leftist movements in Brazil, thus boldening binary “us vs them” approaches. He also noted that Brazil's judiciary has prevented these connections from becoming public knowledge, which will not be the case in New York.

“The TSE [Superior Electoral Court] censures the links between Lula and Maduro in Brazil, but the world will know about the connections between drug trafficking and the Lula regime,” Eduardo insisted.

Maduro pleading not guilty and calling himself a “prisoner of war” plus an “innocent” and “decent” man may not alter the Brazilian voter's perception, the Bolsonaros hoped. Furthermore, Flávio reportedly wants Lula to follow suit on the deposed Bolivarian leader's fate.

The Left focuses on anti-interventionism and international law, while the Right puts anti-communism and the restoration of democracy first.

While Trump has recently removed some tariffs on Brazilian products, the political relationship is strained. Trump’s warning that he will “do something” about countries harboring cartels or drug-producing regimes (like his recent threats toward Colombia and Mexico) is being watched closely in Brasília.

The regional picture has Brazil siding with Mexico, Colombia, Chile, and Uruguay to condemn the Caracas raid. On the other end, Argentina's Javier Milei is leading a rival block that fully supports Trump’s actions.