MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Three years after the fact, the Jan. 8 uprising still has Lula's future in the balance

Whichever course of action Lula chooses, he will have to pay a political price

Brazil is commemorating Thursday the third anniversary of the Jan. 8, 2023, attempted coup d'état, for which most notably former President Jair Bolsonaro and some of his closest aides have been convicted, in addition to some 810 other defendants.

The anniversary comes at a time when President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prepares to hold a ceremony for democracy while facing a potential showdown with Congress over the so-called “Sentence Bill,” a legislative attempt to reduce the penalties for those involved in the coup plot.

Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre De Moraes recently presented a final balance of the legal aftermath following the attacks. The document showed a massive judicial undertaking, resulting in 810 convictions for crimes including attempted coup d'état, armed criminal organization, and attacks on the democratic rule of law.

Additionally, 564 “non-prosecution” agreements were reached for low-level participants, resulting in financial sanctions to restore the damages caused during the riots, plus a mandatory course on democracy. Furthermore, 346 cases are in the final stages of investigation, many targeting those who reportedly funded the movement.

Federal Police inquiries concluded that the riots were not spontaneous but part of a structured “coup plot” led by high-ranking military and political figures, such as Bolsonaro, Gen. Augusto Heleno, former Minister Anderson Torres, and Gen. Walter Braga Netto, among others currently under arrest.

While Lula plans to hold his “Democracy Reaffirmed” ceremony today, the legislative leadership is notably absent. Speakers Hugo Motta of the Lower House and Davi Alcolumbre of the Senate declined their invitations, citing personal and political commitments.

Lula has until January 12 to veto the bill. He has repeatedly stated that “there is no forgiveness for those who attack democracy,” some some sort of partial veto is to be expected, according to local analysts.

Others were speculating that Lula might issue his veto on Thursday to maximize political impact. The Bill provides for the reduction of prison terms for “non-violent” crimes committed on January 8 (such as “incitement” or “criminal association”) by up to 50%.

Additionally, it contemplates a more limited liability for those who funded the buses and logistics, provided they did not physically enter the buildings of all three branches of Government.

The wording would also mean redefining the “Attempted Coup d'État” and making it a “Civil Disorder” for defendants who did not belong to the Armed Forces.

Submitted by the “Centrão” political group of parties and the pro-Bolsonaro opposition, the bill passed both houses with significant majorities. Lawmakers argue that the STF sentences (some exceeding 15 years) were “disproportionate.”

Lula's vetoing the bill would appease his voters at the risk of a “Legislative War” where Congress could override the veto and block the government's economic agenda. On the other hand, enacting the bill would be seen as a sign of weakness.