MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil: Lula leads first-round scenarios but faces tighter runoffs, poll suggests

The poll also captures a polarized electorate with meaningful fluidity. While 62% said their vote is already decided, 38% said they could still change their mind

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva remains the front-runner across all first-round matchups for Brazil’s 4 October presidential election, according to a new survey by Instituto Ideia published by digital outlet Canal Meio.

The poll also indicates Lula would still edge potential opponents in a second round on 25 October, but by margins that sit within the survey’s error band.

In the first-round simulations highlighted by Meio, Lula polls around 39%–40%, followed by names linked to Jair Bolsonaro’s political field: Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, and São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, generally ranging between 32% and 35% depending on the lineup tested. Other center-right figures — including PSD governors Ratinho Júnior and Eduardo Leite and Goiás Governor Ronaldo Caiado — trail well behind in the single digits in the scenarios published.

The more consequential finding for investors and party strategists is the runoff picture. The survey shows Lula at 45.8% vs 41.1% against Flávio Bolsonaro; 44.7% vs 42.2% against Tarcísio; and 45.0% vs 40.7% against Michelle Bolsonaro. With a ±2.5 percentage-point margin of error, all three are described in Brazilian coverage as statistical ties.

Methodologically, CNN Brasil reported that the Meio/Ideia study interviewed 1,500 voters by telephone between 30 January and 2 February, with a 95% confidence level, and that it was registered with Brazil’s electoral court.

The poll also captures a polarized electorate with meaningful fluidity. While 62% said their vote is already decided, 38% said they could still change their mind. Both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro lead in rejection: 44% said they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, compared with 34% who said the same about Flávio.

On government approval, the survey points to a challenging environment for the incumbent: Lula’s administration is shown with higher disapproval than approval (around 51.4% disapprove versus 46.6% approve), and 44.7% rate the government as “bad or very bad,” according to the published tables.

Veja emphasised that the findings sharpen the debate over a right-wing succession plan without Jair Bolsonaro on the ballot, while business circles in São Paulo continue to float Tarcísio despite his public reluctance to run. Meio, meanwhile, underscored Flávio Bolsonaro’s gains in spontaneous responses and the persistence of a hard, two-pole political landscape.