MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina's economy minister dismisses opposition's 2027 chances, touts dollar inflows

“There can be an external shock, oil can go to 400 dollars, there can be a world war or an alien invasion, but Kicillof will never be president in his life in Argentina,” Caputo told an audience

Argentina's economy minister, Luis Caputo, ruled out on Tuesday that Kirchnerism could win the 2027 presidential election and, in particular, that the governor of Buenos Aires province, Axel Kicillof, could reach the presidency. Speaking before the Argentine-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce (CAMBRAS), the minister also projected that the Central Bank (BCRA) would overshoot the reserve-buying target agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“There can be an external shock, oil can go to 400 dollars, there can be a world war or an alien invasion, but Kicillof will never be president in his life in Argentina,” Caputo told an audience of Argentine and Brazilian businesspeople. Alluding to the series El Eternauta, he said “the old does not work,” and added that while another opposition alternative could “eventually” emerge, “it is certainly not Kirchnerism.”

On the economy, the minister called the external constraint a “myth” and said there were enough dollars for importers, for companies seeking to repatriate dividends and for Argentines wishing to save in dollars. He said the BCRA had been buying at a rate of 100 million dollars a day since the start of the year and that the 10-billion-dollar target agreed with the IMF was “already met.”

Caputo estimated that, if the current pace held, the Central Bank could acquire up to 24 billion dollars in 2026, against an official projection of 17 billion. That overshoot, however, comes after the IMF eased the program's targets in its second review: the body cut the net-reserve accumulation requirement for June by about 11.8 billion dollars, shifting it from a positive goal to a negative one.

The minister also highlighted the export potential of hydrocarbons and mining, projecting that by 2031 the trade balance of both sectors would reach 60 billion dollars, some 40 billion more than today.

Caputo repeated his forecast that “the best 18 months” in decades lie ahead and listed five indicators to support it: recovering tax revenue, slowing inflation —he anticipated May would be lower than April—, a recovery in wages, the regulation of the Labor Modernization Law, and economic activity at record levels, with 24 consecutive months of growth for the first time in 15 years. He said the economy was growing at around 3.5% to 4%. “Does this mean everything is fine? No, obviously, but it means we are doing well,” he concluded, predicting that President Javier Milei would win “comfortably” in 2027.