MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina's inflation slows to 1.9% in June, lowest monthly rate in 10 months

The government presents the slowdown as one of the main achievements of the fiscal and monetary adjustment program launched after Javier Milei took office in December 2023

Inflation in Argentina slowed for the third consecutive month in June, coming in at 1.9%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). It was the lowest monthly figure since August 2025 and the first time this year that the index dropped below the 2% threshold. Year-on-year, prices rose 33.5%, while the first-half cumulative figure reached 16.8%.

The figure was in line with private analysts' estimates and below the 2.1% recorded in May. Core inflation, which excludes seasonal and regulated prices and offers a view of the underlying trend, was 1.6%, also below the general average. Economy Minister Luis Caputo highlighted that it was the lowest inflation in ten months.

By category, the largest increases were in recreation and culture (4.2%), driven by higher tourism package prices, and in housing, water, electricity and gas (3.3%), reflecting adjustments in utility rates. At the other end were clothing and footwear (0.4%) and communications (0.9%). Food and beverages, the most sensitive category for lower-income households, rose 1.3%, below the average.

The government presents the slowdown as one of the main achievements of the fiscal and monetary adjustment program launched after Javier Milei took office in December 2023, when annual inflation stood at 211%. The administration, which attributes inflation to money printing, said it would send Congress a bill to bar the Central Bank from financing the Treasury through issuance, with penalties for officials who breach it, a proposal MercoPress reported when it was first outlined. The bill also seeks to amend the bank's charter to set the preservation of the currency's value as its sole objective, reversing a 2012 reform that had broadened its mandate to include employment and development goals.

Despite the improvement in the indicator, the government has already ruled out meeting its target of reaching a monthly inflation rate “starting with a zero” in August, and the 2026 budget's annual projection of 10.1% is unattainable after the first-half cumulative figure. Analysts expect disinflation to continue, though at a slow pace and with persistent pressures in some categories.

The process coexists with signs of strain on household incomes. According to an analysis by the Center for Studies on Labor and Development at the National University of San Martín, based on official data, most of those who found a job over the past year need to work more hours or do so in the informal sector. In June, a typical family needed around 1.53 million pesos to stay above the poverty line, 35.7% more than a year earlier. The government is betting that the economy's performance will be its main asset ahead of the 2027 elections, in which Milei will seek reelection.