MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lula's runoff lead over Flávio Bolsonaro narrows to 8.9 points, CNT/MDA poll finds

In the second-round scenario, Lula takes 48% of voting intentions against 39.1% for the Liberal Party senator

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holds an 8.9-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a potential runoff, according to the CNT/MDA poll released on Tuesday. The gap stood at 12.5 points in the June survey.

In the second-round scenario, Lula takes 48% of voting intentions against 39.1% for the Liberal Party senator. In June the figures were 49.3% and 36.8% respectively. The narrowing reflects both a 1.3-point decline for the president and a 2.3-point rise for the opposition candidate, variations that individually fall within the 2.2-point margin of error. The current gap between the two, by contrast, exceeds it comfortably. Blank and spoiled ballots account for 11% and undecided voters for 2%.

In the first round, Lula leads with 42.4%, virtually unchanged from June, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro on 28.7%, Ronaldo Caiado on 4%, Romeu Zema on 3.3% and Renan Santos on 2.8%. If no candidate exceeds 50% of valid votes, the two leading contenders go to a runoff, an outcome that has occurred in every Brazilian presidential election since 2002.

The poll tested other runoff scenarios, in which the president retains wider margins: 49% against Zema's 35%, 48% against Caiado's 36% and 49% against Renan Santos's 33%. Flávio Bolsonaro is therefore the rival who runs closest.

Measurements differ substantially depending on the polling firm. A Datafolha survey from mid-July put the runoff at 48% against 43%, four points above the figure CNT/MDA now attributes to the senator. In March, an AtlasIntel survey described the two as being in a technical tie.

The poll was commissioned by the National Transport Confederation and carried out by the MDA institute, with 2,002 face-to-face interviews conducted between August 5 and 9 in 140 municipalities across all regions of the country. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points and the survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court.

The figures come four days before the official start of campaigning for October's elections. Flávio Bolsonaro is the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup and endorsed his candidacy in December. Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term.