MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Flávio Bolsonaro edges Lula in the first round; both head to an October 25 runoff

“Brazil wants change,” Bolsonaro said in Brasília, thanking some 56 million voters, more than his father won in the first round in 2022

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro won around 47% of valid votes in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who took about 45%, according to the Superior Electoral Court's count. As neither passed half of the valid votes, the two will face each other in a runoff on October 25.

The result runs counter to the final polls. Datafolha's survey published on Saturday, based on 4,006 interviews, gave Lula 45% of valid votes and Bolsonaro 42%; Quaest had put the president five points ahead in the first round. The Liberal Party candidate led the count from start to finish.

“Brazil wants change,” Bolsonaro said in Brasília, thanking some 56 million voters, more than his father won in the first round in 2022. “The end of the PT era is hereby decreed,” he added. He did not mention former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence under house arrest for attempting a coup and whom his son has promised to grant an amnesty if he wins.

Lula spoke shortly afterwards in São Paulo. “The result is often unexpected. I confess I was convinced I was going to win the election in the first round,” he said. “But we have the second round, and the second round is the real test. Tomorrow we start a new campaign.” The 80-year-old president criticised the Bolsonaro family's “truculent biographies” and referred to links with militias and to the Banco Master case, in which Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation without formal charges.

The other candidates — Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema — won around 8% of valid votes between them. Their largely centre-right and right-wing electorate will be decisive in the runoff, along with abstention, which reached about 21% in 2022 and traditionally affects lower-income groups, Lula's electoral base, the most.

Brazilians also elected governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies, two thirds of the Senate and the state assemblies. Voting passed without major incidents, aside from power cuts at some polling stations caused by storms, which did not affect the electronic voting machines.

If he wins on October 25, Bolsonaro would add Brazil to a series of right-wing victories in the region, including those of José Antonio Kast in Chile, Abelardo de la Espriella in Colombia and Keiko Fujimori in Peru. The senator has pledged to bring the country into the Americas Shield, the Washington-backed security coalition from which Brazil is absent.