MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Bolsonaro and Lula head into the final stretch of Brazil’s campaign in a statistical tie

Both polls were conducted before the Senate approved on Wednesday a cut in the working week from 44 to 40 hours, one of the flagships of Lula’s campaign

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are heading into the final days of the campaign for the October 25 runoff in a statistical tie, according to two new polls. A Datafolha survey released on Thursday night gives Bolsonaro 51% of valid votes and Lula 49%, compared with 52% and 48% a week earlier, with a margin of error of two points.

A Quaest poll published on Wednesday puts Bolsonaro on 46% of voting intentions and Lula on 44%, also within the margin of error. Some 9% will vote blank or spoil their ballot and just 1% are undecided. Rejection rates are similar: 54% say they would never vote for Bolsonaro and 53% would never vote for Lula. Asked which they fear more, Lula’s re-election or the Bolsonaro family’s return to power, respondents split evenly at 43% each. Lula leads in the northeast and among recipients of the Bolsa Família programme; Bolsonaro in the south and among evangelicals.

Both polls were conducted before the Senate approved on Wednesday a cut in the working week from 44 to 40 hours, one of the flagships of Lula’s campaign, which Bolsonaro also voted for.

In an interview with TV Globo, Lula said he supports lowering the age of criminal responsibility for the most serious crimes, a proposal until now championed by his rival, who wants to reduce it from 18 to 16. “My opinion, as a Brazilian citizen, is that for any heinous crime I am in favour of lowering the age of majority,” he said. The president also took responsibility for his high rejection rate: “If I failed to make people understand the government I formed, I cannot blame anyone, the fault is mine.”

Bolsonaro, who won 47.03% of the first-round vote against Lula’s 45.16%, has secured the backing of almost all right-wing and centre-right parties, and has promised to maintain the current government’s social programmes and create a Ministry of Prosperity. The two candidates will face each other on Sunday in their first debate, on the Band network.