MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazil chooses between Lula and Bolsonaro in its tightest runoff in recent history

Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of the vote against Lula’s 45.16%, a result that confounded the polls

Nearly 160 million Brazilians are called to vote on Sunday in the presidential runoff, in which President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, seeks a fourth term against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The two arrive level: the latest Datafolha poll gives each 50% of valid votes.

Polling stations open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasília time across the country, and the electronic voting system allows results to be known the same night. Voting is compulsory for those aged 18 to 70 and optional for older voters and for 16- and 17-year-olds. Runoffs for governor are also being held in six states.

Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.03% of the vote against Lula’s 45.16%, a result that confounded the polls. Since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections in 1989, no candidate who came second in the first round has gone on to win. Both campaigns have concentrated on mobilising the roughly 33 million voters who stayed away then.

Lula, of the Workers’ Party, has defended the continuity of his government and stepped up announcements in the final stretch, including the 15% increase in the Bolsa Família social programme and the approval of the 40-hour working week. Bolsonaro, of the Liberal Party, backed by almost all of the right, has focused on security and the cost of living, and promises to cut public spending while maintaining social programmes. He has also pledged to pardon his father, sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election, and has announced a constitutional reform to “re-democratise Brazil”, according to the newspaper El País.

Whoever wins will govern with a Congress in which the Liberal Party won its largest-ever bloc in the Chamber of Deputies in October. The campaign has also been marked by the legal dispute with Meta, which both candidates accuse of unequal treatment on its platforms.

The election is being closely watched in the region. Argentine President Javier Milei has backed Bolsonaro and accused Lula of seeking to “steal” the election, while the Brazilian president used Milei as an argument against his rival in both campaign debates. Lula turns 81 on Tuesday.