MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Political turmoil in Brazil

Brazil's ruling coalition seems to be back in rail after a dispute over candidates for the coming October presidential election threatened government unity and had the left wing opposition hopeful comfortably leading the polls.

José Serra former Public Health Minister and a close crony of President Fernando Cardoso now figures as the coalition's leading candidate following a Federal police raid of Congress member Roseana Sarney headquarters in her home state of Maranhao that uncovered stashed currency and possibly incriminating documents.

The publicity of the raid and findings toppled Ms. Roseana Sarney's lead that now figures with 15/17% against Mr. Serra's rising 17/19% lead.

Although Luiz Inácio da Silva, Lula, the undisputed Socialist opposition presidential candidate manages a comfortable 25/27% lead in the polls, now even the non charismatic Mr. José Serra would defeat him in the second round, which comes as a relief for President Cardoso and his legacy of open market policies.

However there might be surprises still ahead. The political Sarney family have been running the impoverished state of Maranaho in northern Brazil as a family feud for the last half century and wield great power taking turns in the governorship and Federal Congress representation.

Roseana's father Jose was president of Brazil, Roseana's brother a member of President Cardoso's cabinet and the family has the support of the very powerful Carlos Antonio Magallaes who runs the decisive northern block in Congress.

The Liberal right wing party Sarney family directly blame President Cardoso and the Federal Police for the raid saying it was geared to boost Social Democrat Mr. Serra, a claim which could very well be true, if the results are an indication of a possible motive.

Besides, corruption being an ingredient of Brazilian politics, to appeal or abuse non orthodox methods to unveil opponents sins --"normal procedures"-- could very well lead to a more risky political turmoil in the coalition. Mr. Da Silva is carefully monitoring.