MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentine electorate keeps everybody guessing

With less than two weeks for the crucial presidential election of April 27, the Argentine electorate has turned the dispute into one of the tightest and possibly most complicated election in recent history because of the dispersion of votes.

The seven major public opinion pollsters of Buenos Aires, interviewed in the Sunday editions of La Nación and Página 12, agreed that the difference between the main five presidential candidates is so minimal, (in some cases less than the polls margin of error), that there will be a run off, and most probably between two of the three ruling Peronist party candidates.

Opinion polls so far indicate that vote intention for Santa Cruz governor Nestor Kirchner and former president Carlos Menem vary between 20,5% and 18%, followed closely by former interim president Adolfo Rodríguez Sáa with 17%. In this scenario Mr. Kirchner and Mr. Menem would be disputing the run off. However the difference between the three Peronist candidates is below the margin of error so pollsters are not discarding any option, besides the fact that one of the non Peronist candidates, liberal Mr. Ricardo López Murphy, has been the only hopeful consistently growing week after week. The other non Peronist candidate, left wing populist Ms. Elisa Carrió seems to have stagnated in 12,5 to 13,4%.

Therefore even a run off scenario between a Peronist candidate and Mr. López Murphy is also possible. Pollsters point out that another indication or the electorate's intention could be the degree of rejection for each candidate, and here apparently Mr. Menem is the big looser with over 50% of those interviewed saying that under no circumstances would they vote for the man who ruled Argentina for ten years.

However there's also another factor to take into account. Polls reveal that even those who reject Mr. Menem see him as a "powerful" man and this leads to the belief of almost half the electorate that he will effectively become the next Argentine president. In this scenario in a run off the most rejected candidate should loose, but?the electorate might have double thoughts.

According to pollsters Mr. Menem has a very strong backing in the low income brackets, in rural areas and among those who have no doubts about their vote. But among those undecided or "volatile", Mr. Kirchner clearly has the lead.

The Electoral Roll for next April 27 totals 25,5 million voters with 67,000 voting stations all over the country. Buenos Aires province has 9,48 million voters, followed by Buenos Aires city with 2,59 million; Santa Fé 2,23 million and Cordoba 2,23 million. Tierra del Fuego has the least number of voters, 69,919.

The province of La Rioja, Mr. Menem's power base has 191,105 voters; Santa Cruz, where Mr. Kirchner is governor, 128,595 and San Luis province the stronghold of Mr. Rodríguez Sáa, 260,318 voters. Voting is compulsory in Argentina for all citizens between 18 and 70 years.

If no presidential candidate manages 45% of the vote or 40% plus a ten point difference over his runner up, a run off takes place three weeks later, that is May 18. Peronist caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde, who openly supports Mr. Kirchner's candidacy, is scheduled to hand the presidential sash to his successor on May 25. One of this Sunday's published poll indicates that Mr. Kirchner leads with a 20,6% vote intention followed by Mr. Menem with 17,9% and Mr. Rodríguez Sáa with 16,5%. Another shows Mr. Menem with 20%, followed by Mr. Kirchner 18% and Mr. Rodríguez Sáa 16,5%.