MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentina the day after

With over 82,000 security forces ensuring that today's presidential election in Argentina, the tightest in recent history, will develop normally and peacefully, caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde is preparing for the day after.

Monday an International Monetary Fund, IMF, delegation arrives in Buenos Aires with the double purpose of monitoring the current financial and fiscal agreement with Argentina and opening a permanent office, and hopefully interviewing whoever is elected president this Sunday or the two most voted candidates who will have a run off next May 18.

Mr. Duhalde also anticipated that this very Monday he will sponsor a governance agreement between the winner and Congress to ensure the sustainability of the current political stability and economic recovery for the incoming administration, "no matter who's the winner". After months of haggling the IMF and Argentina reached last December a temporary short term agreement that gives the country breathing space until next August when a definitive long term understanding must be worked out, including negotiations with international creditors caught in the December 2002 default.

Besides, since legislative elections are scheduled for next October, it's expected that the current Congress will soften opposition and facilitate the work of the next administration, particularly since the ruling Justicialista party is divided in at least three main groupings and two presidential hopefuls have virtually no Congressional representation. This Sunday 25,7 million voters will be choosing among nineteen candidates, although actually only five have chances of reaching the Casa Rosada (seat of the Executive), and for the first time in modern times the bipartisan political system in Argentina is divided and has no clear favourites.

The strongest and ruling political party, the Justicialistas have three candidates, former president Carlos Menem; Governor Nestor Kirchner supported by caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde and Governor Adolfo Rodríguez Sáa. The other two hopefuls with chances are Liberal economist Ricardo López Murphy and left leaning populist Elisa Carrió, both running as independents but stemming from the other big party, the discredited Radicales of former president Ricardo Alfonsín and Fernando de la Rúa.

Mr. De la Rúa, former mayor of Buenos Aires was elected in October '99 but his lack of strong leadership ended with a defeat in October 2001 Congressional elections and his resignation in December 2001 following fierce street rioting and repression that left tens of people dead and hundreds wounded. Bank deposits and accounts were frozen; Congress confirmed Argentina's default of 128 billion US dollars in debt and after much political manoeuvring the Legislative Assembly nominated Eduardo Duhalde caretaker president in January 2002.

The powerful political boss of the province of Buenos Aires managed in the following fifteen months to preserve democracy, pacify the country, gradually leave behind the recession and even reach a temporary agreement with the IMF. The political and social chaos scenario plus hyperinflation forecasted by international analysts never materialized. However this did not impede unemployment rocketing to 25%, turning 60% of Argentines into the category of poor, according to international standards, and scrapping a fixed exchange rate program pegged to the US dollar that for a decade stabilized the country's economy to the delight of middle class Argentina. No wonder then the Argentine electorate virulent reaction to its political class, considered the less trusted of the country's institutions.

But in these fifteen months as the country timidly recovers normality the electorate rejection to politics has turned into scepticism or resignation. The latest polls (72 hours before polling day) indicate that 46% of the electorate has chosen a candidate but the other 53% remains undecided. Of that 53%, 25% are still pondering between two names but the final reaction of the other 28% is still unknown, since they are divided among those who will not bother to vote (in spite of the fact it's compulsory) or will vote or spoil their ballot.

This last option has been openly preached by extremist groups and picketers of organized unemployed and homeless. Therefore since all opinion polls indicate that the difference between the leading five candidates is no greater than 5 or 6 points, with a maximum of 22% and 15,5% vote intention, it's still very much an open race. It's hard to see any of the candidates attracting this Sunday, 45% of the vote or 40% and a ten point difference over his runner up, which will force a run off May 18. Vote counting should be over by mid night Sunday when a winner, or the two candidates for the run off, is announced by the Ministry of Interior. However the definitive vote count begins 48 hours later and is responsibility of the Judicial branch. The next President is expected to take office May 25, Argentina's National Day.