MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

“I won't let you down”

After a full day of hectic activity and insistent rumors about former Argentine president Carlos Menem abandoning this next Sunday's (May 18) presidential run off against favorite Nestor Kirchner, Mr. Menem appeared on Tuesday midnight and promised supporters “I won't let you down; go and rest, tomorrow is a new day”.

Mr. Menem's two brief appearances and promise from a window in his hotel headquarters in downtown Buenos Aires ended speculation about his alleged resignation and brought some relief to the current Argentine government shocked by the suggestion, apparently strongly supported by many of the former president's allies.

Previously an anonymous letter attributed to Mr. Menem and explaining why he was stepping down from the dispute was made public, but later was denied as authentic.

Apparently the overwhelming anti-Menem tendency among the Argentine electorate synthesized in the public opinion polls indicating Mr. Kirchner as the next president by a 70 to 30 margin, plus growing unrest in Mr. Menem's coalition of governors and congressmen who face a mid term election next October, forced a reconsideration of the situation.

In the "floated" letter Mr. Menem says he would not be a participant of the current antinomy between Peronists, (a recurrent historical event among Peron's followers), and charged against the vile campaign of lies that questioned him and condemned his administrations. "I don't want to expose Argentina to a hatred fracture".

A spokesman for the Kirchner presidential team said the abandonment of Mr. Menem "was a humiliating day" for the Argentine electorate and the Santa Cruz governor added that "you can expect anything from Menem".

However the Argentine government was more cautious, and remarked that such an attitude was an "institutional attack", and local analysts emphasized that the "legitimacy" of a future Kirchner administration would be at stake since the governor of Santa Cruz only managed 22% of the vote (two points behind Mr. Menem) in the April 27 first round.

"What we're seeing is not a landslide for Mr. Kirchner but rather a massive rejection vote of Mr. Menem, which is not at all positive for democracy or any future stable government, when so many reforms are pending", said analyst Raoul Bachman.

Several times during the week caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde and a declared political enemy, taunted Mr. Menem saying he should give up since he was going to suffer a humiliating defeat.

"Like in box, his options are KO or stepping down", insisted a provocative president Duhalde, the strongman of the crucial province of Buenos Aires that concentrates 37% of the Argentine electorate and is sponsoring Mr. Kirchner.

Actually Mr. Menem likes to recall that the big difference with Mr. Kirchner is power, the governor of Santa Cruz's strength has been "loaned" by Mr. Duhalde and could be conditioned or forcibly returned at any moment, while the former president has ten years of undisputed command to show as evidence. Mr. Kirchner has confessed he never actually expected to have any chance until the 2007 presidential race.

The latest news early Wednesday was that Mr. Menem and his aides were considering the next steps: a news conference could be convened on Wednesday in his home province of La Rioja; a television spot explaining the reasons for or against such a drastic decision, but "above all we're concerned with national unity and Peronist cohesion, we will not be tempted into the false antinomy, "for or against Menem".

Actually the May 18 run off is an internal primary between the two most influential leaders, -Mr. Menem and Mr. Duhalde--, in the Peronist party, the party that has actively dominated Argentine politics since 1940.

Mr. Menem's team apparently is divided among the "historical" leaders who want him to continue honoring his career and reputation, and those who have mid term electorate interests and are very concerned with their political future in an overwhelming anti-Menem vote and defeat scenario, particularly having to face the victorious Duhalde electoral machine.

To confirm that no final decision has been taken, the pro-Menem television and radio spots that had been cancelled at mid day Tuesday, late in the evening were back in the air.

According to Argentine electoral legislation if one of the two running tickets for the run off decides to step down, the other is automatically proclaimed president and vice-president. This means that if Mr. Menem and Mr. Romero finally step down, Santa Cruz governor Nestor Kirchner and Daniel Scioli, next May 25 will be taking office.