MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

President Lula's mounting troubles

“My gentlemen, don't expect more from me more than from a president of the republic; I must honour the Constitution, I don't have God's powers, I'm no miracle maker”, remarked Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva who has seen his personal standing and his administration's tumble in public opinion polls with mounting criticisms from political friends and foes.

Over the past few weeks' president Lula's administration has been attacked even from factions of the ruling Workers Party and grassroots organizations such as the Landless Movement for the orthodox policies of his administration. These, together with corruption claims that did not implicate Mr. Lula but brushed far too close to his most trusted aides have the government on the defensive. However during a speech in a Sao Paulo factory Mr. Lula anticipated he will not yield to pressure or change the economic course.

"I'm not going to fall into the madness trap of inventing an economic plan, a Lula Plan. Brazil suffered the Summer Plan, the Collor Plan, the Bressler Plan and so many other plans that failed. I won't be involved in an adventure of this nature", emphasized Mr. Lula rejecting changes to the current economic line or more flexibility. "The fact we have political differences and divergences does not mean we're facing a crisis", added the Brazilian president.

But the latest public opinion polls indicate that the Lula magic is eroding. His personal standing has dropped from 69,9% last December to 65,3% in February and 59% in March. Disapproval has risen from 21% in December to 30,5% in March.

As to his declining administration, 34,6% consider it positive (41% in December, 39% in February) while the negative opinion has risen from 12,9% to 19,4% in the same period with 44,7% saying it's unconvincing. Besides most Brazilians, 68% believe poverty has worsened in the last six months and 43,9% that the administration is managing the country "inefficiently". Even more worrying, after a year of austerity and 0,2% contraction of the economy, growth prospects for 2004 have began to dwindle and Brazilians overwhelmingly believe expansion will be "very modest" or non existent. Only 13% anticipate strong growth this year.

But for president Lula even when the economy is still "vulnerable", "rarely has there been so much reason for optimism in many years" and mentions record agriculture production, trade surplus, lowest interest rates in ten years, buoyant international credibility and investment banks packed with money. Critics recall Mr. Lula on taking office promise to create 10 million new jobs, but by February unemployment had reached a record 12%.

President Lula's successful coalition is also under strain: small grouping such as the Popular Socialist Party have publicly said "we can't imagine Brazil growing with this economic policy". And the more sober and experienced centre right allies, Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, PMDB, are also increasingly concerned with the stagnant economy given the coming October municipal elections.