MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

World trade set to expand 7,5% in 2004.

World trade should expand 7,5% in 2004, as long as there are no setbacks to the world economy reported this Monday in Geneva the World Trade Organization, WTO.

After a soft beginning plagued by several factors such as SARS, world trade expanded 4,5% in 2003, 3 points more than expected. In 2002 trade growth was 2,5%.

"Improved economic situations both in United States and Asia have giving world trade a strong thrust", said WTO Director General Supachai Panitchpakdi.

China economy is particularly robust with a 35% nominal expansion of exports and 40% in imports, becoming in 2003 the world's third main importer behind United States and Germany.

WTO forecasts that the world economy will keep growing at the impulse achieved in the second half of 2003, and estimates that overall growth will reach 3,7% compared to 2,5% last year.

Primary data from WTO indicates that trading of goods and services in the thirty richest countries of the world during the first quarter of 2004 expanded at a 9% rate compared to the second half of 2003, and information seems to confirm that "the trade growth thrust remains strong".

However the WTO points out to three possible storm clouds, the mid term non sustainability of the US trade deficit; a possible weakening of the EU demand and oil prices that may not fall as quickly as anticipated originally by analysts.

But anyhow the performance of world trade expansion in 2003 was below the average annual growth since WTO was created in 1995.

In 2003 Asia, the former Soviet Union transition economies proved the most dynamic trade partners with produce trade expansion reaching between 10 and 12%.

Germany became the world's main exporter pushing aside the United States, with Japan remaining in third place, while China ranked four replacing France that dropped to number five.

Western Europe and Latinamerica had rather relatively weak performances in 2003 with imports increasing 2% in real terms.