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Kerry boosted by TV debate.

Saturday, October 2nd 2004 - 21:00 UTC
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Three polls suggested yesterday that US voters who watched the policy-driven confrontation between President George W. Bush and his challenger Sen. John Kerry on Thursday night were impressed by Kerry. Most of those surveyed said he did better than Bush. It was the first of three debates before the Nov. 2 election.

Kerry's running mate, Sen. John Edwards, said yesterday he told Kerry after the debate "I think people saw the next commander in chief," and he criticized Bush for failing to acknowledge problems in Iraq. "You can't fix a problem if you're not willing to admit that mistakes have been made and that you have a problem," he told ABC's Good Morning America.

Bush, however, believed he had effectively spelled out the strategy and shown the resolve with which he is fighting the war on terror, White House communications director Dan Bartlett said. "I think he spoke from the heart, spoke with strength about the necessity for our country to fight the terrorists over there so we don't have to face them here at home," Bartlett told ABC. "He had a good time last night."

Sen. John McCain, a Republican who informally advised Bush on how to debate his friend and Senate colleague, told reporters in Miami yesterday that the debate was probably Kerry's "brightest moment" in the last six weeks. "He presented himself well, John did," McCain said. "Kerry came out slugging."

Kerry's campaign prepared a TV ad that featured newspaper headlines from yesterday praising the Democrat's performance. The Democratic National Committee was rolling out a Web video showing clips of Bush appearing frustrated at the debate.

When Kerry leveled some of his charges, Bush appeared irritated and scowled at times and, at other moments, glanced away in apparent disgust. Kerry often took notes when the president spoke. The television networks offered a split screen to viewers so they could see both men at the same time and watch their reactions.

Bush knew he would be on camera during the entire debate and was aware that the networks had not agreed to show only the candidate who was speaking, Bush campaign spokeswoman Nicolle Devenish said. Regarding Bush's facial reactions, Devenish said: "The president reacted honestly. It showed the president really believes in his convictions."

From the first question, Kerry went on the offensive, accusing Bush of leaving US alliances around the world "in shatters" and later calling Iraq "this incredible mess." Bush said Kerry had voted to authorize the war he now criticizes. "That's not how a commander in chief acts," Bush said.

Less than five weeks before the election, Iraq dominated the debate on a day when a string of bombs killed 35 children and wounded scores of others in western Baghdad. Overall, more than 1,000 US soldiers have died in Iraq.

Kerry summed up Bush's strategy for Iraq as "more of the same" and added: "This president has made, I regret to say, a colossal error of judgment. And judgment is what we look for in the president of the United States of America."

Bush acknowledged that not every US citizen agrees with the decisions he's made. "But people know where I stand," Bush said, suggesting they don't know where Kerry stands. "People out there listening know what I believe."

From Florida, Bush was heading out Friday to rallies in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, two key battleground states. Kerry was spending the day campaigning in Florida, where the presidential race was decided four years ago.

In Thursday night's encounter at the University of Miami, Bush and Kerry drew heavily on oft-repeated lines from their campaign speeches but they faced each other directly across the same stage for the first time.

While Iraq was the dominant issue in the debate, there were notable differences on North Korea and Iran, two nations suspected of pursuing nuclear weapons programmes. Kerry urged that the United States hold direct bilateral talks with North Korea, but Bush called Kerry's proposal "a big mistake" that would crush multinational talks and remove pressure from China on North Korea. Kerry said North Korea has amassed more nuclear weapons during Bush's administration.

On Iran, Kerry said the United States should have worked with allies like France, Germany and Britain to impose sanctions if Tehran refused to give up its nuclear programme.

Kerry gets post-debate bounce in election futures

Online futures traders raised their bets on Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry yesterday after the first debate with US President George W. Bush, although the overall odds still favoured the incumbent.

At the Iowa Electronic Markets, where participants can bet on political events through Wall Street-like futures contracts, the contract for Bush in the Nov. 2 election reflected a 63.9 percent chance of victory yesterday, down from 68.4 percent a day earlier.

The Kerry contract traded at 36 percent, compared with 34.5 percent the day before.

Each contract costs one cent for every tenth of a percentage point, paying $1 if Bush or Kerry wins and nothing in a loss. Because the two contracts are traded separately, their implied chances of winning do not usually add up to 100 percent.

Instant polls of viewers after the debate on security policy gave the Democratic challenger the edge as the election heads into its final four weeks.

The Bush contract peaked at 74.2 percent chance of victory on Monday, but declined steadily this week heading into the debate. It had surged to new highs in a long rally that began before the Republican convention Aug. 30-Sept. 2.

Election futures on the private online exchange Intrade also showed a similar post-debate outcome, with the Bush contract sliding to show a 65.2 percent chance of victory from 68 percent on Thursday, while the Kerry contract climbed to 35.8 percent from 33 percent.

The Iowa market, run by professors at the University of Iowa, has seen trading volumes on its exchange triple in September compared to the 2000 election. Trading surged on the Iowa exchange ahead of the debate, with more than 30,000 Bush and Kerry contracts changing hands on Thursday.

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