MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Ten Latinamerican countries in “failed states” list

Ten Latinamerican countries out of a list of sixty ran the risk of becoming what is described as “failed states” according to a paper from the United States publication Foreign Policy and the US NGO “Fund for Peace”.

The "failed states" ranking is based in twelve economic, social, political and military performance indicators among which outstand demographic pressures, uneven economic development, criminalization of de-legitimization of a state, economic failure and violation of human rights.

In the first twenty places of the ranking, mostly African and Asian countries such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen, figure Haiti, Colombia and Dominican Republic, where alleges the report local governments have lost control of their territory and of the legitimate of the legitimate use of force.

"This is clearly the case of Colombia, where besides the country has the narcotics industry problem, income inequality and an armed rebellion which does not accept changes", said Pauline H. Baker, president for Fund for Peace.

Ms. Baker recognized that several Latinamerican countries are candidates to climb the list given the growing instability in the region.

"In the short term I don't see much progress and several countries face serious challenges. In Bolivia the gap between the rich and poor is so large that there won't be stability until something is done about it".

What are the clearest early warning signs of a failing state? Among the 12 indicators two consistently rank near the top, according to Ms. Baker.

Uneven development is high in almost all the states in the index, suggesting that inequality within states?and not merely poverty?increases instability. Criminalization or de-legitimization of the state, which occurs when state institutions are regarded as corrupt, illegal, or ineffective, also figured prominently. Facing this condition, people often shift their allegiances to other leaders?opposition parties, warlords, ethnic nationalists, clergy, or rebel forces.

Demographic factors, especially population pressures stemming from refugees, internally displaced populations, and environmental degradation, are also found in most at-risk countries, as are consistent human rights violations.

However identifying the signs of state failure is easier than crafting solutions, but pinpointing where state collapse is likely is a necessary first step, argues Ms. Baker.

But these "vulnerable" states have mover from the periphery to the centre of global attention since they represent the greatest threat to world security, contrary to what happened during the first half of the XX century or the Cold War.

State failure in the Cold War was seen through the prism of superpower conflict and was rarely addressed as a danger in its own right. In the 1990s, "failed states" fell largely into the province of humanitarians and human rights activists, although they did begin to consume the attention of the world's sole superpower, which led interventions in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo.

For so-called foreign-policy realists, however, these states and the problems they posed were a distraction from weightier issues of geopolitics.

But now the dangerous exports of failed states?whether international terrorists, drug barons, or weapons arsenals?are the subject of endless discussion and concern.

They could be a government that has lost control of its territory or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of force. Some regimes lack the authority to make collective decisions or the capacity to deliver public services. In other countries, the populace may rely entirely on the black market, fail to pay taxes, or engage in large-scale civil disobedience.

Ms. Baker also pointed out that five of the ten countries in the world which invest a higher percentage of GDP in arms include "failed states", Eritrea, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Bahrain.

"And a failed state with nuclear weapons becomes a nightmare for the whole world which is North Korea that figures 13 in the list".

Another disturbing factor is that about 2 billion people live in insecure states, with varying degrees of vulnerability to widespread civil conflict.

The Latinamerican countries in the 60 countries list are, Haiti, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Guatemala, Paraguay, Peru and Honduras.

The twenty most vulnerable according to the Foreign Policy and Fund for Peace are: Ivory Coast, Congo, Sudan, Iraq, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Chad, Yemen, Liberia, Haiti, Afghanistan, Rwanda, North Korea, Colombia, Zimbabwe, Guinea, Bangladesh, Burundi, Dominican Republic and Central African Republic.

Nevertheless it should be mentioned that other organizations don't necessarily share the extension of the sixty countries list: the World Bank has identified about 30 "low-income countries under stress"; whereas Britain's Department for International Development has named 46 "fragile" states of concern. A report commissioned by the CIA has put the number of failing states at about 20.