MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Chile says adios to President Lagos

It's reminiscent of a tale of rags to riches. Ricardo Lagos' presidency started in March 2000 with an aura of foreboding. He had only just beaten Joaquin Lavin in January's electoral run off; the specter of the first ?leftist' President since Allende sent capital flying out of the country; and it was widely believed he wouldn't finish his term.

Six years on, Lagos is the most popular Chilean president ever. The rightwing politicians, who previously demonized him, now queue up to have their photos taken at his side. And he is lauded the world over as a statesman and democratic icon.

So what accounts for the turn-around?

Skeptics will point to the economic cycle. The aftermath of the Asian crisis and low copper prices had the Chilean economy in the doldrums at the start of the decade. As the world copper price went up, the economy grew, Chileans recovered their optimism and the president's popularity ratings rose accordingly.

There is clearly something in this. It is not chance that the record high in the world copper price coincides with a record high in the Chilean president's popularity. Still as Al Gore, John Major and General Pinochet can all testify; there is more to electoral popularity than association with economic growth.

Three events occurred in 2003 which defined the Lagos presidency, and help explain its success: Chile opposed the Iraq war, a free trade deal was signed with the US, and the thirtieth anniversary of the military coup was commemorated.

At the start of the year Chile held one of the pivotal votes in the United Nations Security Council when the Anglo Saxon powers were fighting to secure backing for the invasion of Iraq. Despite enormous pressure from Washington, Lagos wasn't swayed and resolutely refused to support the war.

With 80% of Chileans opposed to the invasion, and cross party support for his position, Lagos won widespread acclaim for his dignified stand. From then on the Chilean media would refer to him as ?the Statesman'.

A few months later Chile signed a free trade treaty with Washington. A combination of good luck and astute diplomacy enabled Lagos to defy the US in the Security Council without jeopardizing Chile's commercial interests.

The fact that a nominal leftist enthusiastically signed a trade deal with the world's foremost capitalist power speaks volumes about Lagos. He understood that his democratic mandate didn't extend to radical changes in Chile's economic model. Chile had long ago gone through the turmoil of structural adjustment and was now reaping the benefits of export led growth. Having accepted the rules, Lagos set about excelling at the game. The raft of free trade deals that followed, and the avalanche of foreign investment, won Lagos the grudging approval of the entire business community.

His keen sense of the limits of presidential power, and his desire to accommodate diverse sectors, is what differentiated Lagos from his socialist predecessor, Salvador Allende.

Whereas Allende addressed "the workers of my motherland", Lagos time and again stressed his vocation as "the President of all Chileans".

Yet Lagos didn't seek to distance himself from Allende's legacy. He silently oversaw the resuscitation of the fallen president's image during the celebrations marking the thirtieth anniversary of the 1973 coup. Under his gaze, Chile's recent past was subtly rewritten and the country's republican, that's to say non-military, tradition sanctified.

Possible against his will, Chilean history will remember Lagos as the last president of the twentieth century, not the first of the new millennium. His job has been to bring to a conclusion the chapter which started with the bombing of the Moneda. His greatest achievement was to do this without leaving anyone outside the Chilean fold. Chile is a less fearful, more tolerant, and far more diverse country than it was six years ago. But few have felt threatened by this transformation.

His presidency will be remembered for the solid reconciliation between the Chilean left and the military. In this Lagos was lucky to find a receptive interlocutor in Gen. Juan Emilio Cheyre. The timing of Pinochet's definitive fall from grace ? following detention in London and the RIGGS bank enquiry ? was also fortuitous. Though the appointment of Michelle Bachelet as defense minister was a stroke of audacious genius, for which Lagos alone takes credit.

So, by the end of 2003 Lagos had revealed his three greatest qualities ? principled and statesmanlike conduct of foreign affairs; pragmatic and skilled economic management; and a sense of history that transcended his partisan affiliation. So what of the downside?

Lagos himself has said his greatest failure is that Chile's scandalous income inequality actually grew during his presidency. Only the first half of his promise of ?growth with equality' has been honored. For any socialist this is a disparaging legacy.

Another black mark has been his environmental policy, or rather the lack of it. The names of Ralco, Carlos Anwandter, and most recently, Pascua Lama are sinister testimony to a government that has prioritized short term gain over long term sustainability. Maybe only in this has Lagos shown his age. An old man accustomed to dealing with the old problems of economic growth and social justice, he has been unable to bring the green ball into his juggling act. To be fair few, if any, world leaders have.

On balance however Lagos has been a particularly good president. Even before Bachelet is sworn in there are voices asking if he will run again in 2010. Hopefully he won't.

Lagos was the right man, in the right place, at the right time. There is little hope that these conditions will be repeated in four years time.

It is invariably an anticlimax when great leaders return to power. Churchill's 1952 comeback was sad. In Argentina, Perón's second term was a poor replica of his 1950s splendor. De Gaulle's successive reappearances were each progressively more disappointing. Lagos will be over 70 by the time of the next election. He would do well to rest on his laurels. Rags to riches is heartening. Rags to riches and back to rags; soul destroying.

Editorial by Justin Vogler, Santiago Times