MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Peru's next president could be a nationalist populist

Peruvian radical populist presidential candidate Ollanta Humala appears neck to neck with conservative candidate Lourdes Flores in the run up to April 9 presidential election, according to the latest public opinion poll.

The "Apoyo" survey published Sunday in Lima shows Ms Flores from the National Unity party with 31% and former Army officer Humala with 30%. Former President Alan Garcia, the candidate of the American Populist Revolutionary Party, APRA, is third with 22%.

The virtual tie in the opinion polls shows that Ms Flores has been loosing support in the last month, according to political analyst Mirko Lauer.

"Taking it as a static image this is a technical tie: Lourdes Flores has lost six points in six weeks and Humala has recovered four points, even having nearly all the media and a very strong campaign against him", indicated Lauer adding that the "poll also exposed the weakness of one of the candidates".

With less than a month before Sunday April 9, the poll also showed that in a runoff between Flores and Humala, the conservative candidate would win with 54% of the vote against her rival's 46%.

Candidate Humala has been plagued by allegations which are under investigation by Peru's Attorney General's Office, mainly that he committed human rights abuses when he commanded a military base in the jungle region of Madre Mia. He was commander of the Madre Mia military base from 1992 to 1993, when the Maoist Shining Path insurgency had escalated attacks.

The former commander is accused of playing a role in the "disappearance" of several suspected leftists whose relatives reported them abducted by military personnel. Since their bodies were never found, it is presumed they were summarily executed and their corpses disposed of in a way intended to preclude discovery.

Humala argues that the allegations are part of a plot to "destroy the candidacy of someone they call an 'outsider' and 'anti-establishment'" and he accused the government of President Alejandro Toledo and other mainstream parties of being accomplices in the campaign.

The 42-year-old Humala candidate of the Peruvian Nationalist Party, UPP, led a failed coup with his brother on Oct. 29, 2000, against former President Alberto Fujimori.

Humala has recently appeared to be somewhat distancing from the UPP, which in the past has called for setting up a government along the lines of the Inca empire, abolishing all forms of currency, nationalizing foreign companies, legalizing all coca farming and jailing homosexuals, among other policies. Half of Peru's population of 26 million is described as Amerindian.

His rise from nowhere reflects the disillusionment of many Peruvians with the country's traditional political parties. The outgoing President Alejandro Toledo is so unpopular that his party is not even fielding a candidate in the elections; they are only contesting congressional seats and this despite the current administration overseeing one of the fastest growing economies in Latin America.

Humala's brother, Antauro, is currently in jail after leading another unsuccessful coup January first 2005 from the Andean city of Andahuaylas.

Antauro belongs to the Etnocacerista movement founded by his father Isaac, a group that takes its name from field marshal and former President Andres Avelino Caceres, a hero of Peru's in the 1879-1883 Pacific War, when Chile defeated Bolivia and Peru.

The movement promotes xenophobia against Chile, the United States and Israel as part of a platform that also includes indigenous demands and Inca myths.