MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Nationalist candidate leads comfortably Peruvian election

With a few hours before Peru's Sunday's crucial presidential election two last minute public opinion polls have further complicated an already confusing political scenario.

One of the polls anticipates a virtual technical tie between the three main presidential candidates, Conservative Lourdes Flores figures with 27.6% of vote intention, followed by ultranationalist anti globalization Ollanta Humala, 25.9% and finally Social-democrat former president Alan Garcia, 24.9%.

The poll was done by the Peruvian Market Research company, CPI, April 4/5 interviewing 2.500 people covering the whole country with a 2.5 plus/minus error margin.

However a second survey from pollster Apoyo, that has been regularly following the election has Mr. Humala leading with 33%, followed by an ascending Mr. Garcia with 23% and a descending Ms Flores with 22.8%.

The Apoyo poll was published in the Mexican daily El Universal.

Until mid February Ms Flores was the front-runner in all opinion polls when the other candidates begun surging, particularly the former Army officer Humala.

If the CPI survey is correct, Mr. Humala in a week lost almost six points (from 31.5% to 25.9%), and Ms Flores climbed one point from 26.8 to 27.6%.

Mr. Garcia on the other hand has increased slightly from 23.1 to 24.9% and closing in on Conservative Flores.

The former president (1985/1990) strategy in the last fortnight has been to overtake Ms Flores, as he did in the previous election of 2000, and dispute the runoff with Mr. Humala since all opinion polls coincide that no candidate will garner 50% plus one vote next Sunday April 9.

Manuel Saavedra, CPI, CEO attributed Mr. Humala's "dramatic plunge" to the "radical change" in strategy by Flores and Garcia who have concentrated all their firepower on ultranationalist Humala

"Voters have begun to realize, to be more cautious and become somewhat fearful of the unknown which Mr. Humala represents", argues Saavedra.

But the Apoyo poll shows Mr. Humala keeping astride with previous weeks' tendency and climbing an extra two points in a week, from 31 to 33%.

Flores support keeps eroding and now stands at 22.8%, when a week ago she had 26%, dropping to third place behind Garcia who has climbed to 23%.

According to Apoyo, Mr. Humala is ten points ahead of Garcia and eleven of Flores.

In his closing rally before the beginning of the 48 hours campaign ban, Humala appealed to the still undecided (25%) voters promising a full transformation of Peru. Humala said he needed the support of undecided voters not just for his candidacy but for the "entire nationalist family," referring to the congressional candidates of his Peruvian Nationalist Party, UPP, with which he hopes to implement "the transformation of a nationalist Peru".

One of Mr. Humala's priority projects is convening a constitutional assembly to draft a new charter replacing the Peruvian Constitution of 1993 which was approved under former populist President Alberto Fujimori.

"I need the votes of the people for Congress because we have to launch the task of transformation and change the history of Peru beginning July 28", when the next elected president takes office.

Earlier in the week in interviews published in Buenos Aires, Mr. Humala said he would propose the formation of "a great family" of left wing governments which would include Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil and Bolivia.

"I would like to see an alliance with Evo Morales in Bolivia, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil and Nestor Kirchner in Argentina", he highlighted.