MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Populist leader leading in Ecuador's presidential run-off

Nationalist-populist leader Rafael Correa seems to have emerged as the winner in Ecuador's Sunday presidential run-off according to private surveys, in what has been interpreted as a clear signal of electorate disenchantment with traditional politics.

Ballot booths' exit polls show Mr Correra, a former Economy minister and admirer of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez leading over his rival Alvaro Noboa, Ecuador's richest man by 57/58% to 42/43%. Friday's opinion polls showed the run-off relation 54 to 46%, but with over 18% still undecided.

"It's a triumph for Ecuador: there's a clear winning project", Correa told reporters at his headquarters in the country's capital Quito.

If the polls' estimates are confirmed Correa would become Ecuador's eighth elected president in a decade and should be taking office next January 15.

Although rich in resources and particularly oil, one out of three Ecuadorians live in poverty and the country has become highly turbulent in political terms having ousted three presidents in the last ten years and forcing into office four care taker heads of government.

However US educated economist Correa could scare investors who fear his plans to restructure the country's ten billion US dollars sovereign debt, which he has promised will help finance social plan to help millions of poor Ecuadorians.

He could also become a close ally of the region's worst nightmare for Washington, Venezuela's Chavez and could mean the end of a bilateral trade agreement with the US which is pending Congressional approval because of the election and on disputes over oil windfall taxes and on suspension of contract to the country's main foreign investor US Occidental Petroleum.

In such a scenario Mr Correa could turn his back on the other two Andean partners, Colombia and Peru that have close links with Washington.

Tycoon Noboa on his third presidential intent has promised to cut relations with Venezuela and Cuba and warned that Correa would scare foreign investors and lead the county to a massive international default.

However Mr. Correa has also promised a political reform which would severely limit the power of political parties and their vote catching policies that are blamed for the country's endemic instability. But it's not clear whether he has Congressional support to pass such legislation.

Thousands of Ecuadorians over the years have migrated to the US and Europe, and 140.000 were registered to vote overseas.

The Organization of American States has monitored the run off and has called on Ecuadorians to remain home and wait for the official figures before taking to the streets to celebrate.

OAS fears that vote counting could be painfully slow and follows on Correa's insistent claims that a "big fraud" has been plotted.

To help cool the situation, OAS called back to Washington the head of the mission in Ecuador, former Argentine Foreign Affairs minister Rafael Bielsa who had been questioned by Mr. Correa for having dismissed claims of irregularities during the first round of voting last October 15.

Chilean Senator Jose Antonio Viera now heads the OAS delegation in Ecuador.

Nine million Ecuadorians were registered Sunday to vote which is compulsory. In the first round Noboa garnered 28.8% and Correa, four points less.