MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Lack of rains forecasts energy rationing in Chile

Chile seems to be inevitably heading for a serious energy shortage in the coming months with electricity rationing almost a certain possibility because of the hydrological conditions suffered by the country under the full impact of the Pacific Ocean La Niña current.

Myrna Araneda, head of Chile's Meteorological Office said that although "the mature phase" of La Niña was in January and February, only towards mid year "the phenomenon could be considered over". Results from the different current prediction models for sea surface temperature, both statistically and dynamically, "coincide in showing a continuous declination of La Niña with a tendency to enter the neutral phase (end of the phenomenon) following on the first quarter, June, July and August 2008". Based on this technical forecast it can be said that "there's a greater chance for a continuation of the precipitations deficit during the first half of 2008", added Araneda. But the retraction of La Niña from the Chilean coastline does not ensure that the current hydrologic deficits could be recovered as from next August. "A neutral phase from the point of view of sea surface temperature anomalies, beginning July 2008, represents a greater uncertainty in precipitation weather forecasting, given the fact chances of having a dry, normal or rainy period are in the range of 33%", added Araneda. Currently Chile's hydrological deficit (April 22) is above 54% compared to a normal average year in some areas of the country. Electricity industry consultant Raul Barahona said that the current forecasts are "most complicated" and some estimates regarding the possibility of describing 2008 as "a very dry year" are close to 60%. "With current consumption and thermal capacity production, in the range of 70%, I think we could just scrape by if 2008 proves a not too dry normal year. Obviously we must persist in the current percentages of voluntary saving and an efficient use of energy", underlined Barahona. La Niña weather phenomenon, which is known since the time of the South American aborigines, occurs on certain years in equatorial Pacific and is characterized for water temperatures colder than normal. This condition impedes weather fronts and clouds associated with rainfall to advance.