MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Forecasting the “perfect storm” in an unruly Argentina

Under the title of “The perfect storm”, Argentina's most recognized political analyst Joaquin Morales Solá describes the country's current political and social situation as dramatic, following a weekend when the government/farmers conflict escalated to new irreconcilable levels.

While the issue that originally triggered the conflict, the sliding export levies on grains and oilseeds remains unaddressed, irritation is mounting on all sides involved while public opinion is becoming increasingly angry. Over the weekend a quiet lull was shattered when police forcibly arrested (using batons and uncommon repression methods) several farmers protesting at a road block, among which the most charismatic leader the conflict has generated, Alfredo de Angelis. Several hours later on his release a spontaneous political rally erupted next to the road side, almost 20.000 people to hear Mr. De Angelis confirm the protest will continue, but at the same time pleading for common sense and no violence. His arrest had caused mini scuffles in many of the 200 to 300 roadblocks in Argentina which is facing an increasing shortage of fuel and food. Farmers' pickets are supported by a second ring of grain truckers that have been out of work since the conflict begun and have stationed their trucks in the roads. Meanwhile in Buenos Aires following a full day's meeting with President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner the Cabinet chief Alberto Fernandez and Justice minister Anibal Fernandez gave a press conference blaming all problems and shortages on the obstinacy and disrespect of farm leaders towards the rest of the population, and which Mr. Nestor Kirchner officially now refers as the "coup monger leaders". This was later was crowned by an organized political rally of brown shirts, loyal and financed by the government who took over Plaza de Mayo, Buenos Aires central square, in support of Mrs. Kirchner government and decisions. Later her husband former president Nestor Kirchner and members of the cabinet joined the rally. But all these actions shattered an incipient solution to the dispute. Apparently non official efforts to establish dialogue between farmers and the government was being brokered by the powerful leader of Argentina's trade unions Hugo Moyano. After long hours on Thursday/Friday he managed a working agenda: farmers would lift all road blocks and end the ban on grain and oil seed trading; the government four hours later would convene a meeting to seriously discuss camp affairs and nobody would mention the controversial export levies until seated at the table. However all indicates the efforts were torpedoed by Mr. Kirchner who has an only objective: the "unconditional surrender" of the camp and strikers. Mr. Moyano stepped aside and the order was given to forcibly remove pickets. The whole approach collapsed. Mr. Morales Sola says the conflict is beginning to take its heavy toll. Mrs. Kirchner public opinion standing continues to fall and is now below 20% and so has plummeted that of her husband and former president: in a month his support dropped from 49 to 33% in one month. On the financial side it is estimated that restless Argentines and with fresh memories of 2001/02, since March have purchased 8 billion US dollars, which together with the subsidies system for public utilities, fuel and transport is costing another 25 billion. Although Argentina's Central bank remains healthy with over 47 billion US dollars in international reserves, proven reserves of gas and oil in Argentina because of lack of investments have evaporated at the fastest rate on record worldwide. Added to this is the fact that in the large cities, mainly Buenos Aires shortages are beginning to be felt. But in those provinces closely linked to farming the 95 days conflict has left towns and villages virtually paralyzed, people out of work and business dying out. The dramatic situation, according to Morales Sola words, is also having an impact on both sides: farmers are willing to resist but unity is imperiled and they have lost control of pickets that consider they are autonomous and don't necessarily respect instructions and could be prone to violent reactions. On the other hand the overwhelming political control of the Kirchner couple is beginning to show cracks. Some of the traditional leaders of the ruling party that had been shadowed are resurfacing and a growing number of governors are grumbling about the consequences of such obstinacy. All is ready for the perfect storm.