MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Kirchners Senate block show cracks ahead of crucial vote

With less than two days for the crucial Congressional vote on the sliding tax regime on grain and oil seed exports which is at the heart of a dispute between the Argentine administration of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and the farmers, the final tally remains uncertain.

On Sunday following last week's discussions in the Budget and Agriculture committees the Kirchner administration was certain it had the necessary 35 votes to ensure the bill, which was approved in the Lower House, would be passed "without changing an iota" in the Wednesday Senate full house vote. The Argentine Senate numbers 72. However on Monday according to the Buenos Aires press the balance had changed and the Kirchner supporters were down to 33, the opposition had grown to 34 and five remained undecided or would not make their vote intention known. To make things even more complicated Argentina's vice president Julio Cobos who presides over the Senate and can only cast a vote on a Senate draw has anticipated he is against the bill as was drafted and sent to the upper house. However the non Kirchner side is not homogeneous: they have drafted at least four different grain and oil seed export bills, so it's an open race. But whatever the results, particularly if the bill is redrafted back to March 11, which was when the new system was announced triggering the four months long conflict with protesting farmers, the Kirchners hegemony would have been definitively eroded and a new option inside the ruling coalition will emerge. And even if the Kirchners bill is approved with minor amendments, it will become a Pyrrhic victory, and farmers have anticipated they would continue with protests and take their case to the Supreme Court. Not to mention the consequences for the Argentine economy of such a collection of uncertainties on top of a four months conflict. But before the vote on Wednesday, on Tuesday the Kirchner and farmers sides will be measuring their capacity to convene and gather support. They both will be holding their own rallies in Buenos Aires in a display of force. Former president Nestor Kirchner is scheduled to be the only speaker in the rally next to Congress with a forty meters stage with all the cabinet members present plus faithful governors and mayors and the official trade union movement. Three miles away the camp will be meeting hoping to attract 80/100.000 people, with the support of Buenos Aires residents, a majority of which do not approve of the Kirchners. Two days full of surprises and Argentina in another display of self inflicted attrition.