MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Ecuadorian president set to win Sunday's charter referendum

Pte. Rafael Correa

Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa is expected to win a constitutional referendum vote next Sunday to accelerate sweeping economic reforms to limit the private sector and expand the Executive control of the oil-exporting country's economy

If approved, as public opinion polls indicate the new constitution will tighten Correa's grip over Congress and top courts. US trained economist Correa belongs to a new generation of South American leaders determined to wrest power from old political elites and increase spending on the poor and Indigenous population (65%). Under the new constitution foreign companies will face more state scrutiny and harsher terms to extract natural resources from the hydrocarbons rich South American country with a population of 13 million, mostly Indians. A reliable survey released by the Quito press this week showed support for the new constitution at 57%; other polls show 60% support above the simple 50% majority needed to pass the 444-article document. The new charter gives President Correa greater control over monetary policy and allows him to run for re-election next year and again in 2013. He would also give him more legal backing to carry through on threats to stop paying debt the state considers "illegitimate," and to overhaul oil and mining deals. The small country on the Pacific between Peru and Colombia has a long history of political and financial instability which has forced millions to Ecuadorians to look for work in United States and Europe. The opposition has been weakened by atomization and squabbling among political groupings while Correa's popularity has prospered on promises to lift millions from poverty investing millions of oil windfall earnings in social programs, schools, health clinics and cheap loans to individuals. So far slow economic growth and high inflation have not dented Correa's standing although some political analysts caution that too many expectations could backfire in a country known for toppling presidents. Furthermore a weak showing on Sunday could cause problems for the young president who has a strong grass root missionary Catholic formation, forcing him to negotiate with the opposition, an option which seems absent from his commitment to lift millions of Ecuadorians from poverty and misery. Some of the outstanding points of the new charter: Increased control and regulation of strategic sectors such as oil, mining and telecommunications, and powers to clamp down on monopolies; the president will manage monetary policy instead of the central bank. Ecuador adopted the US dollar as its official currency in 2000, but Correa has been a critic of the move. It creates the concept of "illegitimacy" for some foreign loans that could give the government legal backing to stop some debt payments. Introduces the right to expropriate idle farming land to redistribute and bans large land-holdings. Allows immediate presidential re-election for a second four-year term opening the way for Correa, if he wins the referendum, to call new elections for early next year and in theory would be able to serve two terms, taking him through to 2017.