MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentine October trade surplus healthy but ceases to grow

Argentina's trade surplus was 1.13 billion dollars in October, unchanged from a year earlier, the government announced this week. Earlier in the month the government had anticipated that the trade surplus totalled 11.37 billion US dollars in the January-October period.

The accumulated figure shows a 38% expansion from the first 10 months of 2007, but the downside is that the flat trade surplus in October marks a sharp slowdown from previous months. In September Argentina's trade surplus almost doubled while in August it increased seven-fold when farmers fully resumed exports after four months of protests against a tax hike on soy sales abroad. The value of exports grew 13% in October from a year earlier, while imports expanded 17%. In volume terms, exports fell 7% as imports gained seven percent. Argentina estimated the 2008 full-year trade surplus at 12.23 billion dollars in its 2009 budget. But President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner said in a speech this week that it could come closer to 13 billion dollars, in line with what the Central Bank has predicted. Last year's trade surplus totalled 11.07 billion dollars. However trade surplus will contract to near 7 billion dollars next year, Planning Minister Julio De Vido said on Tuesday, which would be sharply lower than the 12 billion dollars forecast in the government's 2009 budget. De Vido also said exports will fall 16% next year to about 56 billion dollars, "basically due to the impact of a decline in international prices" for Argentine goods. The Argentine government also announced that the primary budget surplus widened 20.3% in October from the same month last year to 772 million dollars. The October 2007 primary surplus totalled 2.17 billion pesos (approx 660 million dollars). Meanwhile, sales in shopping malls dropped 6.9% compared with September, according to Argentina's state-run statistics bureau INDEC. The sales increased 8.5% year-on-year and shopping mall prices increased 1% compared with September, INDEC.