MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Misleading opinion polls confuse Uruguayan primary election

Two public opinion polls released this week ahead of Uruguay’s June’s primary election when political parties must choose their presidential candidates virtually coincide in the standing of the different hopefuls. However they differ dramatically regarding the overall vote: ruling coalition versus the opposition.

According to the Interconsult poll published Monday in one of Montevideo’s dailies, the ruling coalition hopefuls, Jose Mujica, Danilo Astori and Marcos Carambula muster vote intention of 50%, 37% and 11%.

In the main opposition organization, National party, hopefuls Luis Alberto Lacalle and Jorge Larrañaga figure with a vote intention, for those planning to participate in next June’s primary of 49% and 47%.

In the junior opposition party, -Colorado-, hopeful Pedro Bordaberry figures comfortably ahead with 60% of vote intention.

A second opinion poll from Radar, released in an internet portal Montevideo.com, closely identified with the ruling coalition, hopefuls Mujica, Astori and Carambula figure with 50%, 26% and 8%.

Similarly in the main opposition party, Lacalle has 44% and Larrañaga 39%, and Mr. Bordaberry from the Colorado party, 58%.

So far, hopefuls’ vote tendencies are quite similar and even percentages, but overall party preferences differ significantly when considered overall.

In effect, according to the early March Interconsult poll, the ruling coalition, Broad Front figures with a vote intention of 42%, followed by the National party with 37% and the junior Colorados, 8%.

However the Radar poll, apparently with interviews taken early March, shows the ruling coalition with a vote intention of 45.5%, followed by the Partido Nacional with 31.4% and Colorado party, 7.7%.

The difference is important because according to Uruguay’s electoral rules, if no party manages 50% plus one vote in the first round, a run off must take place a month later between the two most voted candidates.

According to Interconsult, and confirming what has been a sustained tendency for the last nine months, the ruling coalition’s absolute majority is second to the sum of the opposition. In other words the two opposition parties add up to 45% (37% plus 8%) against the 42% of the ruling coalition.

But if Radar is correct, the ruling coalition has regained the absolute majority since 45.5% is higher than the opposition’s 39.1% (31.4% of the National party plus 7.7% of the Colorados), which also means an inflection point from the previous slow erosion support for the Broad Front.

In October 2004, the Uruguayan ruling coalition, a catch-all grouping from former guerrillas to Christina democrats, plus Socialists and Communists managed victory in the first round with 50.9% of votes polled.