MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Brazilian public opinion split on Lula da Silva’s re-re-election

The Brazilian ruling coalition is becoming restless about the future without Lula da Silva.

Brazilian public opinion is split almost equally on the re-election of President Lula da Silva for a second period, according to the latest poll published in Sao Paulo. Lula da Silva one of Brazil’s most popular leaders in decades has a support of 69% but a constitutional reform is needed if he is to run again in 2010.

The poll based on interviews done during May, not only shows a solid support for the president but also growing confidence in the package of measures implemented by his administration to combat the global economic slowdown and re-launch the domestic economy, Latinamerica’s largest.

The Datafolha polls shows that 47% of interviews favour a third running four years for Lula da Silva while 49% are against the initiative. The poll has a plus/minus margin of 2 percentage points. In November 2007 a similar hypothesis only had 34% approval while an overwhelming majority, 67%, rejected the initiative, points out Datafolha.

In a hypothetical 2010 scenario between leader of the opposition and Sao Paulo governor, Jose Serra, President Lula da Silva would be re-re-elected with 47% support of vote intention in the first round with no need for a run-off. However without Lula da Silva, including his hand picked successor Dilma Rousseff, Serra is the clear winner.

“Numbers clearly indicate the popularity of President Lula da Silva” said Mauro Palino, head of Datafolha.

Palino also pointed out that among the 69% who support and approve his performance, 37% are against him running for another consecutive period. “This means there’s resistance even among Lula da Silva’s voters and this is an indication of possible erosion…”

Last week a draft proposal for a possible third consecutive period for president, governors and mayors was presented before the Brazilian congress and had the necessary support for its presentation. However last Friday the Constitutional Amendment Proposal could not collect the necessary signatures for its discussion in the Lower House.

Consequently the proposal was back on the desk of its promoter Deputy Jackson Barreto, from the Movimento Democracia Brasileña, PMDB President Lula da Silva’s main ally in Congress.

President Lula da Silva has repeatedly rejected the possibility of running for a third period in 2010, but since his chosen heir Ms Rousseff is suffering from lymphatic cancer the Workers Party is becoming increasingly anxious about the future.

Under the current Brazilian constitution presidents can only be consecutively re-elected once. Nothing impedes President Lula da Silva running again but in 2014, if he so is willing and has the necessary support.