MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Three pollsters have virtually confirmed the winners of next Sunday’s primary presidential elections

June’s “picture” show’s the most probable scenario for the presidential election is a run off in November.

Three pollsters have virtually confirmed the winners of next Sunday’s primary presidential elections in Uruguay. The ruling coalition’s presidential hopeful Jose Mujica and Pedro Bordaberry from the small Partido Colorado have ample margins over their runner ups and can be anticipated to win by a landslide.

However in the main opposition National party, although Luis Alberto Lacalle has several-points difference, and an ascending tendency, over his rival Jorge Larrañaga, some pollsters still consider it an “open race”.

Nevertheless all pollsters agree that the most probable candidates to face each other at the October presidential election are Mujica for the ruling coalition and Lacalle for the opposition.

Since voting in Uruguay is compulsory in national elections but not in political parties’ primaries like next Sunday, pollsters like to work with greater plus/minus margins.

However this last “picture” of vote intention before the 48 hours propaganda and information ban which begins this Friday shows Mujica leading two to one over Danilo Astori, and Bordaberry four to one over his closest runner up.

Nevertheless for runner ups Astori and Larrañaga all is not lost next Sunday. First of all they need to ensure party unity and according to the percentage of votes how much they can demand or bargain for from the winning candidate. Astori has already anticipated five conditions to join the ticket, plus most probably the economy and finance ministry for one of his closest collaborators.

According to Mori Consultants, Mujica has 56% of the vote, Astori 35% and a third and distant hopeful Marcos Carámbula, 8%. In the opposition National party, Lacalle leads with 57% and Larrañaga has 41%. Finally in the Colorado Party, Bordaberry virtually runs alone with over 65% of vote intention, even when error margins are larger in small parties.

Cifra pollster has Mujica with 59% vote intention against 31% for Astori and 10% for Carámbula. The Colorado Party has Bordaberry with two thirds of vote intention, with the two runner ups sharing the rest.

In the National party, Lacalle has 54% and Larrañaga 45%. Although a tight competition, there could be variations depending on the number of voters who turnout on Sunday, said Eduardo Gonzales, the main political scientist from Cifra.

Finally Radar pollster has Lacalle with 51%, Larrañaga 31% and 14% undecided. Mujica figures with 51% and Astori, 30% and Carámbula, 7% plus 12% undecided. Radar gives Bordaberry 70% vote intention.

Based on this data pollsters ventured a forecast for Uruguay’s October presidential election. According to Cifra, the opposition can muster 49% of vote intention, one more than the ruling coalition. For Mori Consultants the ruling coalition could reach 43% of the vote with the National party at 37%, the Colorado party, 9%; Independents, 1% and 7% undecided. For Radar the ruling coalition has 43.7%; National party 34.4%; Colorado party 9.7% and the rest Independent, annulled or undecided.

This in practical terms means that the ruling coalition based on June’s “picture” does not have the sufficient votes needed (50% plus one), and thus will be forced to a run off in November, when a united opposition could defeat them.

González from Cifra said that the ruling coalition (30% solid support) needs to attract votes from the 40% of the Uruguayan electorate that does not describe itself as “left leaning” and to achieve the 50% plus one needs to add votes from the “right”, “centre-right” and among those who are not comfortable with the expression “left-wing”.