MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentine exports forecasted to drop 20%, but 2010 is a promising year

Central bank president anticipates a strong recovery of commodities’ prices

The global recession will have an impact on Argentine exports which are forecasted to fall an estimated 20% this year to 55 billion US dollars, compared to last year. However since imports have also plummeted the trade surplus in July grew 35% (1.3 billion) totalling 11.2 billion US dollars in the first seven months of the year.

The numbers were revealed Thursday during the celebration of Argentina’s Export Day with several conferences from experts, economists and business leaders linked to export industries.

“What is coming is a very favourable world for Argentina” anticipated economist Miguel Angel Broda, who recommends acquiring Argentine assets.

“Next year is full of hopes, the Argentine economy can manage to expand between 2% and 2.5% with export demand coming mainly from Asia and Brazil “, said Enrique Mantilla president of the Argentine Chamber of Exporters, CERA.

However in his opening speech, Mantilla complained that the Argentine government has been too slow in the reimbursement of VAT on export costs and in making effective the incentives.

Argentine Central Bank president Martin Redrado also anticipated a sustained international demand which could have a positive effect on commodities prices.

“There is sufficient information to indicate a sustained increase in commodities prices both from the supply and demand sides”, said Redrado who added that the new goals of bio-fuels production in the United States and Europe “together with the rebuilding of stocks taking advantage of lower prices and cheaper freight costs” are most encouraging for next year.

Production Minister Deborah Girogi also was upbeat about the near future saying that although Argentine exports “had dropped 21%” this is a lesser percentage than the world average.

“We are managing the world crisis impacts, we’re proud of it” underlined Giorgi.

Another organization linked to export industries Export Foundation was more optimistic than CERA saying that Argentina’s overseas sales could reach between 58.5 and 60 billion US dollars in 2009.

“If this is confirmed we would be exporting 20% more than the average of total exports from the last five years, in the range of 50 billion US dollars, only below last year which was influenced by the extraordinary high prices of commodities”, said Marcelo Elizondo, head of the Export Foundation.