MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Opinion poll confirms a run-off in Uruguay’s October presidential election

Mujica and Astori lead but 50% of the vote still seems quite distant

The Uruguayan ruling coalition Broad Front seems to have recovered momentum and leads in public opinion polls with 44% vote intention, although the opposition is still ahead with 47%, according to the latest survey published Monday in one of Montevideo’s dailies.

Pollster Interconsult has the Broad Front regaining strength in August while the main opposition National Party dropped to 35%, and the Colorado Party complements with 12%.

Uruguayan presidential elections are scheduled for October 25th when the winning party must collect 50% of the vote plus one, if not there’s a run off thirty days later between the two most voted political forces.

The run off or “ballotage” is considered by a majority of pollsters as the most probable scenario for this coming election when the successor of Socialist president Tabaré Vazquez will be chosen.

The ruling coalition presidential ticket made up of former guerrilla leader Jose Pepe Mujica and economist Danilo Astori gained one point from the previous poll and now stands at 44% while the main opposition ticket with former president Luis Alberto Lacalle and Senator Jorge Larrañaga, lost one point and figures with 35%.

The Colorado party and a smaller fraction of Independents make up the 12% which added to 35% would, theoretically, impede the ruling coalition from repeating.

“A majority of the electorate which is registered to vote next October, 85%, has already made up their mind, while between 5 and 6% remain undecided and 9 to 10% are not convinced with none of the leading tickets.

The Interconsult poll also shows that the ruling coalition has a majority in Montevideo (where half the electorate lives) with just over 50% while the National Party leads in the rest of the country with over 40% of vote intention.

“Undoubtedly we are confronted with a most tight election and of difficult forecast, which means the run off is the most probable scenario”, said Juan Carlos Doyenart, head of Interconsult