MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Uribe’s public opinion support falls below 70% for the first time in 7 years

The most popular Colombian president in decades, with support from Chavez and FARC

Colombian President Alvaro Uribe popularity rating is at it's lowest in his seven years in government, according to a recent public opinion poll. Uribe’s popularity rating fell from 70% to 63% in the last two months.

The drop is attributed primarily to economic concerns but several corruption scandals have also had an impact according to Jorge Londoño, manager of polling firm Encuestas Invamer Gallup. The latest results come ahead of a much expected announcement by President Uribe whether he will attempt a third consecutive mandate which demands reforming the constitution.

“The last two months have not been positive for the government since 46% feel that the situation in the country is worsening while 36% believe it’s improving mainly because of the president’s performance”, added Londoño. Nevertheless he admits that for a president at the end of his second mandate “the results are undoubtedly very high”.

The poll also showed that the number of Colombians willing to vote in a referendum opening the way for a third consecutive mandate for President Uribe has fallen from 58% to 52%. Among those who are willing to vote, 82% support the second re-election and 17% reject it. Two months ago the score was 86% in favour.

For left-wing opposition presidential hopeful Gustavo Petro the fall in support for Uribe can be attributed to the corruption scandals but also to the recent signing of a treaty by which US personnel will be allowed to operate from seven Colombian military bases.

“Both are serious events and are eroding presidential support. I think the number of Colombians who are disenchanted with Uribe, who was once considered by many like a Messiah, is rapidly dwindling as corruption scandals surface”, added Petro.

But for political scientist Fernando Cano from the University of Rosario, the fall in support for Uribe is “circumstantial” and not a long term tendency. “I don’t think Uribe’s support is falling. Colombians are punishing the corruption cases exposed, but public opinion is unpredictable and can begin climbing any moment”.

Another political scientist Fernando Giraldo said that Uribe’s popularity is still very high and it’s hard to see him loosing followers after so many years. On the contrary his support “depends on Venezuelan president Chavez and the FARC guerrilla movement. The more they attack him, the faster he again climbs in opinion polls”.

The opinion poll interviewed 1.000 people, over 18 during September and October in Colombia’s four main cities, Bogotá, Medellín, Cali and Barranquilla with a margin error of three points.

Conservative Uribe garnered overwhelming support among voters with his iron hand approach to the Marxist oriented cocaine funded guerrillas group FARC, and last August celebrated seven years in office with a sustained average public opinion support above 70%, the highest for any Latinamerican leader.

Currently the Constitutional Court is considering a controversial bill that could open the way for a referendum to decide whether president Uribe can run for a third consecutive four year period in 2010.

According to Londoño if Uribe finally steps down the two presidential hopefuls with better chances of running for president are former Medellin Mayor Sergio Fajardo and former Defence Minister Juan Manuel Santos.