MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Frei and Piñera expected to face-off in Chilean presidential run off

Eduardo Frei (R) and Sebastian Piñera (L), the former president and the billionaire

With only a month remaining before Chileans cast their votes Dec. 13 to elect their next president, one of the nation’s most important polls showed the race tightening, but with the two front-runners -rightist billionaire Sebastian Piñera and centrist Christian Democrat Eduardo Frei - holding on to their leads.

Support is growing for both independent candidate Marco Enriquez-Ominami (MEO) and far left Communist Party candidate Jorge Arrate, but election day may be too soon to allow them time enough to catch up.

Still, the Centre for Political Studies (CEP) poll published on Wednesday found that maverick candidate MEO would fare better against Piñera in a second round run-off vote most likely to occur in January. The poll also found Arrate’s dramatically up.

The much anticipated and highly respected CEP poll found that in the December election Piñera is likely to receive 36% of the votes (down from 37% in August), Frei 26% (down from 28% in August), MEO 19% (up from 17%) and Arrate 5% (up from 1%). But in the anticipated January run-off vote, the CEP Poll found that MEO fares better than Frei: Piñera (40%) v. MEO (37%), as compared to a Piñera (43%) v. Frei (37%) forecast.

MEO put a very positive spin to the CEP poll results. Speaking from Concepcion, the maverick candidate said “The poll confirms something no one can deny. I am the only candidate that can beat the ultraconservatives. I am the only one that can keep Chile on the track set out by President Bachelet.

The 36-year-old candidate also noted that his was the only candidacy that has continued to grow in the polls as the campaign advances.

Piñera on Wednesday also hailed the new CEP poll results, saying, “I think it is very clear that after 20 years (of rule by the centre-left Concertación coalition) Chileans want, merit and are going to have a change for the better.”

Although Frei was more diffident, insisting that his campaign isn’t moved by polling data, he did say he felt certain he would be in the January run-off vote. “I am more confident than ever,” said Frei.

Arrate, the Communist Party candidate completely discounted the CEP poll and said it was deliberately inflating MEO strength in an effort to get Arrate supporters to opt for MEO.

“Pollsters are not oracles,” said Arrate. “I don’t believe in any of them. This poll has never told it straight regarding the strength of the left vote in Chile. I don’t want to get four or five percentage points. I want a lot more than that. And the poll that I am taking in the streets of the cities in this country tells me that I am going to get a lot more votes than what this poll is saying because Chileans are going to vote without any fear, for what they believe in.”

A portrait of deposed Chilean president Salvador Allende -overthrown in a military coup led by Gen. Augusto Pinochet (and aided by US President Richard Nixon) on 9/11/73 – graces the background of most of Arrate’s campaign literature.

Respected political columnist Patricio Navia said Wednesday that the CEP poll results can be interpreted, cautiously, as favourable for Piñera.

“There will be a second round vote, but Piñera still remains 8 percentage points shy of the magic number he needs to become president,” wrote Navia. “Piñera will not win the final vote unless he is able to attract support from the candidates left out of the run-off vote.”

“This means his criticism of MEO should become more moderate. He needs the votes of those who favour MEO but are not supportive of the Concertación. But he cannot run the risk of being too kind to MEO. If the former Concertación deputy makes it into the run-off race, then Piñera will have a much tougher time on his hands. Piñera should hope that Frei and MEO go for each other’s throats in the first round vote and then take advantage of how difficult it will be for the two sides in the Concertación camp to mend fences. As a result of this poll, Piñera should be cautiously optimistic.”

“Support for Marco Enríquez-Ominami is growing,” continues Navia, “but it is growing too slow. At the current growth rate, he won’t overtake Frei. But he is more competitive in the run-off vote, which should help him construct a very potent message for the final weeks of the campaign. He will need all the votes he can get from the Concertación in the run-off vote, so it is only reasonable that he will begin to court the Concertación vote – with enthusiasm, humility, and respect. He will only get elected president if he becomes the candidate for the Concertación ‘with a plus’; the Concertación and much, much more. He can’t be just a maverick and get elected. He will have to get the Concertación behind him in a run-off vote.”

This latest CEP poll comes in the wake of Monday’s televised presidential debate, where the four presidential contenders did their best to distinguish themselves and appeal to undecided voters – estimated at 9%. The Channel 13 debate was perhaps the feistiest so far in the political season, but drew a mere 16% overall viewer-ship – less than a newly released Channel 7 soap opera about vampires.

The CEP poll also found record-high support – 78% – for President Michelle Bachelet, Chile’s first female president, who will leave office in March 2010.

By Steve Anderson - Santiago Times