MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentine analysts fear diplomatic fallout following CFK China visit cancellation

“There will be political repercussions”, says analyst Jorge Castro

Argentine president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, CFK, last minute decision to cancel next week’s ten day official visit to China alleging she did not trust Vice-president Julio Cobos in her post, has sent shockwaves across Buenos Aires foreign policy circles that fear the political consequences of such an action.

China is a leading economic and political power, possibly the most influential behind the US, has strong trade links with Latinamerica and Argentina, has invested heavily in securing minerals and food for its booming economy globally and Argentina so far had not benefited to that extent from Beijing’s long term plans.

Buenos Aires daily La Nacion, usually with good diplomatic sources, runs a short piece on the issue with quotes from some leading Argentine analysts.

“It’s an offence for China that will not be forgotten easily by its authorities, and therefore will have political repercussions”, said Jorge Castro head of Argentina’s Strategic Planning Institute.

“What is most fearsome is a diplomatic freeze”, added Castro in direct reference to trade relations, which “might not prosper” as the same rate than with other countries of the region.

“The worst thing that could happen is that Argentina no longer figures in the list of China’s priorities” when they are one of the main buyers of Argentine food commodities explains Castro.

In similar thinking analyst Sergio Berenzstein from Poliarquia said that Argentina by cancelling the presidential trip to China “is giving up and excellent opportunity”.

“We have a long list of misunderstandings with China which are not new. Since the time of former president Nestor Kirchner, there is a political utilization of the bilateral relations”, said the head of Poliarquia who recalled that back in 2004, Kirchner announced Chinese investments in Argentina to the tune of 20 billion US dollars, which still have to be seen.

“If we look how Chinese investments have soared in emerging markets, in Latinamerica or in Africa we realize that their investments in Argentina have been insignificant”, added Berenzstein.

“For China it would have been important to talk with the President about barriers to bilateral trade. They like to address these issues at the highest level”, said Jorge Malena coordinator of the Chinese Studies Department at the El Salvador University.

“Since they are very formal regarding protocol, a last minute change of plans must have generated surprise and concern”, he added.

Nevertheless Malena said that the cancelling is more relevant in the political field than in trade or economic terms, since “Argentina is considered a strategic partner for Beijing”.

Finally all analysts coincide in pointing out the current Argentine government attitude of under rating foreign policy and conditioning it to domestic political affairs.

“The foreign policy decisions of this government are subject to the needs of domestic policy”, said Castro, which is alarming and deepens international isolation.

“It’s a blend of lack of interest and isolation and this decision, leaving aside motives, simply confirms the concept” said Berenzstein plus the fact that “they are privileging short term goals and putting at risk crucial relations such as those with China”.

“Argentina is an unreliable country in world affairs and this latest decision simply confirms it”, he emphasized.