MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Argentine presidential primaries a test for the real competition next October 23

Cristina Fernandez must break the 40% vote milestone on Sunday

Argentina will go to the polls Sunday for simultaneous direct primaries which are also a test to indicate if any of the presidential hopefuls has a real chance of challenging Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner re-election bid next October 23.

Current public opinion polls indicate Cristina Fernandez leads with quite a margin over other candidates, but Sunday could show vulnerabilities, if any, of the incumbent candidate following a round of provincial elections where the opposition had a good showing.

These first-ever mandatory simultaneous primaries for parties to nominate their presidential candidates, even when the different groupings have already nominated them, could offer a more precise picture ahead of October besides the fact any hopeful must muster at least 1.5% of ballots to keep running.

Therefore since all hopefuls are participating, Sunday’s primary is a preview of October’s presidential election, and a quite an accurate public opinion poll of the current vote mood in Argentina.

“This is like a presidential pre-election” said political analyst Graciela Romer. She added that at the moment “we can’t visualize any alternative force that could put Cristina Fernandez re-election bid at risk”.

Mrs. Kirchner target for Sunday is at least 40% of ballots in primaries where almost 29 million people are registered to vote.

The 40% is a crucial percentage since this would avoid a run-off if Cristina Fernandez also manages a ten-point difference over her runner up. With 45% of the vote she would automatically win in the first round with no need of a run-off.

Candidates from the fragmented opposition will try on Sunday to reach the second best, with a clear margin, so that next October he can unify the anti-Cristina Fernandez vote.

These include Social-democrat Deputy Ricardo Alfonsin, former caretaker president Eduardo Duhalde and Santa Fe Socialist governor Hermes Binner.

Mrs Kirchner has benefited from a growing economy, booming consumption, public sympathy for the fact she lost her husband, former president Nestor Kirchner last October and a profoundly divided opposition. Even when there are dissidents inside the hegemonic Peronist Party, the so called ‘traditional’ Peronists, her grouping under the name of Victory Front is clearly dominant.

Followers of Mrs Kirchner state that the president will show on Sunday she is “unbeatable” in the first round, in spite of the fact that some of her sponsored candidates in the provinces of Santa Fe and Buenos Aires City were more than defeated, they were humiliated.

One of the latest public opinion polls (Management & Fit) released before the 48 hours ban leading to Sunday, showed Mrs Kirchner has a 38% vote intention and her runner up Alfonsín, 15%.

Nevertheless political analyst Enrique Zuleta Puceiro points out that the followers of the Argentine president have less incentive to vote on Sunday’s primaries than those from the opposition who want to consolidate as a political alternative.

“The most going to vote Sunday will be from the opposition, they have an incentive. There is a clear competition among opposition candidates to see who the leader is, but there are not that many incentives for those supporting government”, said Zuleta Puceiro.

Therefore there’s a certain degree of expectation that Cristina might not reach the 40%.

“There are expectations that Sunday primaries could open a window of hope if Mrs Kirchner does not reach the 40% milestone. Our polls show she would reach that percentage next October, but August is not October”, concluded Zuleta Puceiro.