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World Bank forecasts Latam growth of 3.5% to 4% this year and 4% in 2012

Thursday, October 27th 2011 - 05:58 UTC
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Pamela Cox says impact of the Euro crisis could be stronger than expected   Pamela Cox says impact of the Euro crisis could be stronger than expected

Latin America’s economy is forecasted to grow between 3.5% and 4% this year, which is less than previous estimates before the current global financial crisis, said World Bank representative for the region, Pamela Cox.

The World Bank previous estimate for 2011 was 4.5% and 5%, said Ms Cox adding that the 2012 forecast is even lower, 4%.

“We have lowered our estimates because of the global crisis. We’re expecting growth this year in Latin America to reach 3.5% to 4%”, said Cox during a press conference in Lima, Peru where she met with President Ollanta Humala.

Cox said Latin American economies which managed to avoid the 2008 world financial crisis better than other regions, could face the impact of the Euro debt crisis and the slowing down of the US economy, although it won’t be homogeneous, “some will suffer more, others, less”.

“We are seeing many differences among countries of the region: Argentina for example is growing rapidly. Other countries such as Mexico are not showing a vigorous expansion”, said Cox.

As to next year the World Bank estimates growth at 4% in the midst of spreading uncertainty regarding the health of the world economy, particularly in Europe.

“Given the prevailing uncertainty in global markets, particularly Europe it’s very hard to anticipate what could happen in the region”, said Cox who pointed out that the performance of the region “is indirectly linked to Europe and closely to China and its economy, which is the world’s main consumer of commodities, particularly from Latin America”.
 

Categories: Economy, Latin America.

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  • GeoffWard2

    It is totally unclear what calculatory mechanism the World Bank is adopting.

    If it simply adds together the individual % growths (+ & -) of each country and divided by the number of countries it could end up with a Growth figure.
    But what validity would it have?
    A few tiny countries with tiny economies growing from a depressed base could totally swamp a LATAM overall %, even though their total flows of trade might be miniscule compared to that of the more steadily-growing giant, Brasil.

    Oct 27th, 2011 - 01:14 pm 0
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