MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
The US dollar stronger than the Euro in Argentina’s parallel market
For the second day running the Argentine Peso weakened against the US dollar climbing half a cent from Monday and closing at 4.43 and 4.48 on the local foreign exchange market. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesBA Real Estate and New Construction has collapsed! It is down 30%! Exports are down 14% yoy!
May 23rd, 2012 - 12:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Healthcare professionals are complaining they are out of gloves, syringes, inhalers (So CFK i literally killing asthmatics!), various medications are all unavailable!
All the misguided policies of the Ks last 8 years are coming home to roost.
When will the people rise up?
I think soon....
Well, if CFK was that clever, she would rush to join the EURO quickly before the doors close,
May 23rd, 2012 - 01:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0you don’t have to be in Europe to join, as long as you have the money, they will supply you with the membership .lol
6/1 was reached today in Palermo right before AFIP shut down the exchange house!
May 23rd, 2012 - 03:09 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I can't believe CFK is stupid enough to think they can control the exchange price with police/state action. It will never work and it will only make it worse.
This will create panic it just needs a spark to set if off...
(1) and (3) Mr. Fred Bates
May 23rd, 2012 - 03:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Calm down....., everything will be fine....., take a deep breath....., watch your blood pressure..........
3 - Are you saying that the exchange house was shut down as a result of the exchange rate hitting the 6 mark? If so, that is very punchy. If this is the case it will only push the rate up higher as more demand for US$ and increasing lack of US$ can only mean one thing...
May 23rd, 2012 - 03:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 05. I don' think it was an “official” exchange house but yes it was shut down for offering market rates.
May 23rd, 2012 - 03:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0(5) Welsh Wizard
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You say:
“If this is the case it will only push the rate up higher as more demand for US$ and increasing lack of US$ can only mean one thing...”
I say:
And that “thing” is ?........
Read the title of this article Mr. Welsh Wizard.....
“The US dollar stronger than the Euro in Argentina’s parallel market”
That means one thing allright......... Press induced hysteria.........
Stay put and let's see what the situation is, let's say, next Wednesday....
Shall we?
Neither Europe or USA are in any position to tell anyone how to run their economics, really. They have no clue as to how, trying to gain more and more and got bu*cked by the chinese :) We, Latin America, don't want to follow your path, thank you very much
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Last week I predicted 6/1 this week...do I get a prize?
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Guzz, The only thing countries are telling Argentina is to honor their debts and commitments. The economy crashing is all up to CFK and her idiotic minions.
8 Guzz (#)
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0May 23rd, 2012 - 04:07 pm
What do you mean? This post is non understandable!!!
7 Was just pointing that, if people need to fund in US$ (rather than pesos) and there are fewer places in which to get your US$ then by the concept of supply and demand the exchange rate is likely to go up. A general all round point really.
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0About the press hysteria, I take your point but how do you stop it and at what point can you call whether the tail is wagging the dog. Would you say that this is now happening or is the resultant high unofficial market rate for US$ a result of fewer people being able to get US$ via official channels?
P.S. This is an attack so don't take it as such, just interest in a measured reply.
Funny how the ardent CFK supporters always try to blame the media. Arn't they just pointing out the obvious?
May 23rd, 2012 - 04:40 pm - Link - Report abuse 010 Tankers of LNG are needed throughout the next 3 months...still not committed.
brr
(11) Welsh Wizard
May 23rd, 2012 - 05:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I have in my long and, at times, infructuous life, seen many dollar runs in Argentina……….
Some of them pretty dramatic.
This one, I would call a ”Mayfly”.
The parallel Dollar can go where it wants to go…… The economy is strong.
In the meantime, honest citizens can still exchange 25% of their TAXED income into Dollars at the official rate……
In the meantime, the Argentinean Central Bank is capitalizing itself buying ~150,000,000 U$ a day. Its reserves are up to ~49,000,000,000U$ as per today, not bad at all …..
In the meantime, our government can prepare an orderly devaluation of ~20% that, in my humble opinion, will soon be necessary to regain international competitivity and counter the recent Brazilian devaluations.
Hope my reply was “measured” enough………………
Respectfully
El Think
Chubut, Argentina
I love that the best you can come up with is I have seen worse....hahaha
May 23rd, 2012 - 05:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Since the parallel U$ exchange is already 30+% above the gov't exchange wouldn't the devaluation have to be more than that? Otherwise they will just have to do it again and again don't you THINK?
Also it is too bad most of the 49B in reserves are already spoken for by other entities ( Paris club, hold outs, ICSID judgements) effectively there are no reserves....ooops and the Provinces can't pay salaries....
@12 What's the lead time for an LNG tanker load to be delivered to SA's Atlantic coast? I believe it's four or five months (someone in the industry please correct me if I'm wrong). Did they order these ten tankers two or three months ago to arrive just in time for the likely shortages this winter? If they did, then that shows a superb level of planning and competence and they are to be heartily congratulated.
May 23rd, 2012 - 05:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Or no such plans have been made and this “energy policy” is a desperate load of populist Peronist drivel thrown together on the fly and held together with spit and tissue paper.
@4 Whew, thanks for that Think. I just emailed CFK and told her everything is going to be fine. She said to tell you gracias.
May 23rd, 2012 - 06:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 015. YPF ordered them months ago for delivery this winter but canceled them last week. So if the lead time is really 4-5months for transit ...brr
May 23rd, 2012 - 07:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Surely the crisis talk of Greece leaving/being booted out of the euro must have strengthened the dollar against it in all markets; whats that got to do with Cristina?
May 23rd, 2012 - 09:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Greatttttttttttttttt news!!! Everybody is so happy!!!!
May 23rd, 2012 - 10:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Why a stupid president can decide what people does with its money??? Why can she decide how much money people can waste, how much money people can “not waste”, and why has she the capability to decide how much money can people exchange to dollars if I want??Its not true you can buy easily dollars today at the official price.
And the devaluation is una metida en el bolsillo de la gente común, no de Maximito, Florencita, Alicita, Boudoucito, la esposa de Boudoucito, etc.
Que se dejen de joder. Si no es el corralito, es esta devaluación, el blue, el negro, el paralelo, siempre te afanan.
For those who voted her, enjoy the devaluation, eh the robbbing.
19 malen (#)
May 23rd, 2012 - 11:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0May 23rd, 2012 - 10:28 pm
A very good post, Malen.
For once the Argentine people really can say “We are victims, victims of this crazy woman and her troupe of fools.”
18 British_Kirchnerist
May 24th, 2012 - 08:27 am - Link - Report abuse 0You are right but it has not resulted in the US$ being a stronger currency than the Euro. The point is that the official exchange rate, mixed with the restrictions (and apparent unofficial restriction on taking out US$) have resulted in a situation where the US$ is higher than the Euro on the unofficial grey market. This is a direct result of government policy. The policy has resulted in an alternative exchange rate which is specific to Argentina.
13 Think
I take your point about being able to change up to 25% of your taxed income into US$ and I'm sure this has done (and will continue to do) a huge amount to stop money laundering. The trouble is that this doesn't seem to be implemented on the ground. A friend of mine is arriving from Argentina on 1 June and has been asking what he should do about currency. I said bring some US$ you can exchange over here and have some money in your bank account then see what the best rate is. He tried to exchange pesos to US$ yesterday and was told that there were no US$ to exchange, they just weren’t exchanging any and didn’t know when they would again. He then asked the bank about taking money out on his card in the UK. The recent restrictions mean that he needs to have a US$ account to be able to take money out abroad. He asked if he could open one and they said yes, but unfortunately he couldn't by an US$ to put into that account to take out abroad. He is basically now stuck as he can only buy US$ on the grey market at much higher levels and so is not going to have as much money to spend when over here. I will have to sub him (which I'm happy to do) but he is obviously embarrassed about his situation. He works for the provincial council, his tax papers are in order and he voted CFK last time (and would again). So, it seems that in principal you can exchange pesos to US$ at the official rate but in practice there are some issues.
@21 I don't know if this is possible as I have never tried it but could your friend Western Union money in Argentine Pesos to you in the UK? You would obviously collect in the local currency. I don't know if fees and exchange rates makes this a poor choice.
May 24th, 2012 - 09:51 am - Link - Report abuse 022. I believe Western Union has to abide by the same exchange rules as banks and exchange houses. So you won't have any luck there either.
May 24th, 2012 - 10:33 am - Link - Report abuse 021 -22
May 24th, 2012 - 11:16 am - Link - Report abuse 0Thanks for the advice. We've gone through every permutation of what we can actually do but I think that he will have to wait until a) he can get hold of US$ from an official exchange house or b) bite the bullet and buy on the gery market.
Having said that, we are heading off to Argentina in September so he could always just give us the money in pesos when we get there to pay us back...
Yeah, I just assumed you could send money in the local currency through Western Union. It was just a thought. : ) Embarrassing for your friend but it is not his fault.
May 24th, 2012 - 11:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0@24 Good idea. I think you can get 7 pesos to the pound now. I remember when it was closer to 5.
This situation is only going to get worse as CFK runs out of $. The Arg federal gov't is running a HUGE deficit, provinces are out of cash and the economy went into recession last NOV. She will be forced to print and print and print.
May 24th, 2012 - 11:33 am - Link - Report abuse 0A HUGE devaluation is right around the corner.
#21 ”he voted CFK last time (and would again)”
May 24th, 2012 - 12:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Glad to hear it. But if things are as bad for him as you say, why? Or maybe he sees this, like I do, as a phase of struggle in which Cristina is on the right side against the forces of finance and austerity, or even just thinks there are more important things inlife than dollars
27 British_Kirchnerist – “Glad to hear it. But if things are as bad for him as you say, why?”
May 24th, 2012 - 01:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Well, this was the case the last time we spoke about politics properly. I told him a week ago that there may well be problems exchanging pesos for US$ but he said (and I paraphrase) “that it wasn't an issue and that it was just speculation and rumour stirred up against Cristina by the right wing press who will make up any lies to get at her... wouldn't understand because I don't live here. And anyway, Cristina had come out on TV saying that there wasn't a problem and that everything was business as usual and that there was no problem in people getting hold of US$”
When I spoke to him yesterday he was fuming and thought that the controls stopping him from taking out money were going to stop him from coming to visit (which he felt was an attack on his right to leave the country) were unwarranted and, to be frank couldn't understand the need for them if everything was as rosy as he keeps on being told. He really couldn't understand why the official exchange house just wouldn't give him any US$ or how they could just “not have any”.
It's ok as I'll sub him over here and, when I go over there in September, he'll give me what he spent here in pesos. I did joke with him that, for his sake, we might want to fix the exchange rate now in case he finds himself out of pocket come September! All in all I feel really sorry for him as he has been looking forward to this all year and now feels that he is imposing, it has also caused him a lot of stress.
28. I was just chatting with a friend in BA yesterday. He said it is getting really bad there but for the moment he is holding it together. He has been saving for 2 years to visit me in the USA but now he doesn't think it will be possible.
May 24th, 2012 - 01:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It is sad what bad gov't can do to the avg person.
Out of interest, does anyone know if the exchange rate is the same the other way (i.e. changing US$ into pesos). As, instead of taking out money in Argentina by card, you might as well buy US$ in england for 1.52 US to sterling, then take the US$ into Argentina and buy pesos on the grey market. The difference is considerable. Whereas £100 would give you, for example, 680 pesos. Changing your £100 to US$ at 1.52US$ per £ would give you 152US$, then take your US$ and exchange them in Argentina on the grey market at a rate of 6.15 and you come out with 934 pesos so a profit of 255 pesos...
May 24th, 2012 - 03:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0(30) Welsh Wizard
May 24th, 2012 - 05:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This is quite worrying...........
You are beginning to “Think” like a true Argentinean ;-(
Maybe now you understand why I wrote at (7)....:
“The US dollar stronger than the Euro in Argentina’s parallel market
That means one thing all-right......... Press induced hysteria.........”
Next.............. you will start speculating about reporting those smuggled laptops as stolen somewhere in Neuquen to avoid even the minimal risk of being caught in Ezeiza on your way out.....
And I will not even mention the prospect of cashing in on the insurance at home......
We are, after all, decent people............... aren’t we?
31 Think (#)
May 24th, 2012 - 05:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0May 24th, 2012 - 05:16 pm
I can't resist congratulating you on the short course on “viveza criolla”, genial.
(32) Simon68
May 24th, 2012 - 06:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Viveza criolla”???
I learned about insurance fraud from Europeans in Europe.........
And I cant resist asking you again.................:
Why don’t you read the history of your own Country instead of parroting the lies of its opponents?
Ever heard about Luciano Palacios the first Socialist politician elected in the whole of South America?............:
“El derecho de nuestra Argentina a la soberanía de las Malvinas es innegable. A pesar de ello, una de las naciones más poderosas del mundo, abusando de la fuerza, las mantiene en su poder. Es imperioso que el pueblo conozca su derecho. Los argentinos no hemos reverenciado nunca a la fuerza y a la riqueza, sino a la justicia. La justicia fue nuestra empresa. Nuestro país está destinado a iniciar una nueva orientación en la evolución social, que se fundamente en la colaboración y en la solidaridad para superar la competencia que muchas veces tiene carácter brutal; también en la exaltación de los valores humanos para lograr que se sobrepongan al poderío de las cosas. Se ha dicho que las naciones, como entes de razón, sólo se mueven a impulsos de intereses o de conveniencias nacionales: les falta el órgano del corazón y les sobra el instrumento del cálculo. Hay, sin embargo, una excepción en la historia. Es la Argentina.”
Alfredo Palacios, Las Islas Malvinas, Buenos Aires, Editorial Claridad, 1934.
http://www.elhistoriador.com.ar/frases/miscelaneas/alfredo_palacios_sobre_la_soberania_de_las_islas_malvinas.php
30. Just bring U$ 5, 10, 20s and use them to pay for everything (except taxis unless you want to end up somewhere you didn't expect) . You'll need to stay on top of the rate and negotiate because they will try and screw you. But if you don't mind haggling a bit you'll find RGs eyes get very wide and become accommodating when they see you are paying with U$.
May 24th, 2012 - 06:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0(32) Simon68
May 24th, 2012 - 06:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Or did you ever read what José Hernandez wrote about Malvinas in 1869?
You do know who Jose Hernandez was? Don't you?
http://www.elhistoriador.com.ar/articulos/dictadura/jose_hernandez_y_la_soberania_sobre_malvinas.php
And don't make me quote Don Jose.......................
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