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Argentina insists with 5.1% growth forecast for 2012 despite signs to the contrary

Friday, June 29th 2012 - 05:21 UTC
Full article 65 comments

Argentina's government is sticking to its 5.1% growth forecast for 2012 enshrined in the budget, Economy Minister Hernan Lorenzino said on Thursday, despite recent data that shows a sharp deceleration. Read full article

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  • Britworker

    Cooking the books and fooling only the Argentines.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 07:19 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • LEPRecon

    More lying and sticking their heads in the sand hoping the bad things go away.

    Of course by not telling the people the truth, when the sh!t hits the fan, it comes as a bigger shock.

    Remember in 1982, the military Junta kept telling the people that Argentina were winning and slaughtering thousands of British servicemen, right up to 14 June 1982.

    Then they surrendered, and the people where more shocked because until then they honestly thought that they were winning.

    Maybe the Argentine government should actually start telling the people the truth, and start implementing some sensible policies to help the economy recover, instead of constantly robbing Peter to pay Paul. It'll be a novel approach in Argentina, and perhaps the people will all pull together in the time of crises.

    But Argentina won't do that, after all, burying your head in the sand is so much easier than working at the problem.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 07:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Ahab

    @2 LEPRecon

    Better be careful about that. The population has probably got so used to being lied to, the shock of actually being told the truth might be too much for them.

    Better wean them off the lies with some half-truths or minor facts distortion. Don't want people going cold turkey (no CFK pun inteded).

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 08:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    http://tn.com.ar/politica/000100852/el-gobierno-le-transfirio-1000-millones-a-scioli

    Can't pay salaries and this money will not cover all liabilities. There are bonuses of staff which will not be paid due to this and, with the falling ecomonic activity, this will not be the last loan BA needs. Blackouts yesterday, can't pay salaries today and the government blames Scioli and demands more efficiency from the province and the protection of the current economic model...

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 08:55 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Idlehands

    To even call it an “economic model” is a bit of a joke.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 09:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    Well, the model has produced an insolvent Buenos Aires. I know it's not Argentinean but under English law, one of the limbs which needs to be satisfied for a court to rule on insolvency is the cash flow test:

    Is the entity currently, or will it in the future, be unable to pay its debts as and when they fall due for payment.

    BA can't pay the salaries of its employees; it can't meet its financial obligations as they fall due. Ergo, it is insolvent, bankrupt, broke, bust etc...The Ks will blame this on financial mismanagement of the province itself but this is due to the financial model in place at present. It is only a matter of time before other provinces start to ask for cash. And what if the government decides not to help BA next time round? Will they issue Patacones, or will they just not pay their staff?

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 09:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • PirateLove

    The Argentines deserve the government they have, according to daily trollers their queen is doing a sterling job on the throne, if i had blind following like that i would bleed them dry too.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 10:44 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Basing their budget on over inflated revenue numbers is not going to help them at the end of the year.
    The country is already bankrupt...they just to know it yet.
    It is like someone who has lost their job but as a a few months of savings and makes no changes to their monthly expenses hoping it will all work out before the money runs out,
    This is going to be worse than 2001 because NO ONE WILL BAIL THEM OUT THIS TIME.
    I'm pretty sure the USA wants to use Arg as an example of what happens when you don't follow the rules.
    Scary.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 11:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    “Will they issue Patacones”

    Nope Welsh this is what UK is doing since long time ago.

    Allow me to introduce to you Brixton Pound AKA Brit Patacones.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/8245276.stm

    Are you still being paying in Brixton pounds perhaps?

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 11:42 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Sir Rodderick Bodkin

    No such thing, this is a sinking ship.
    National companies are closing everyday. Today 3 national companies suspended their activities. There's an outrage in Chubut, infation is skyrocketing and there seems to be no end in sight.

    Not sure how long this will last.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 11:48 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • mickey5hins

    Power cuts temporarily complicate transport across Buenos Aires

    Several areas of the City and Greater Buenos Aires were temporarily left without electricity earlier today, which caused delays on public transport and traffic flow through the city.
    Power outages hit the neighbourhoods of Núñez, Belgrano, Recoleta, Palermo, Devoto, Agronomía, Saavedra, Munro, Vicente López and Olivos.
    A spokesperson for Edenor energy company stated that the service was “back to normal” but the causes of the outage “had yet to be determined.”
    Traffic lights were cut off along main roads in the city such as Las Heras Avenue as well as Libertador, causing temporary tailbacks.
    Furthermore, subways lines B and D and the Mitre train line were affected, in addition to Aeroparque Metropolitan airport.

    http://www.buenosairesherald.com/article/104783/power-cuts-temporarily-complicate-transport-across-buenos-aires

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 12:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    CFk only sent 1/3 of what BA province needs to pay its bills...so now what? There are terrible terrible problems in Santa Fe, Cordoba & Santa Cruz none of them can pay salaries.
    Anses and Banco Nacion had their hard currency reserves stolen a long time ago.
    BCRA reserves are quickly being depleted.
    Nat Gas bill this winter is estimated at U$ 14 billion.
    Factories are shutting down all over the country
    Medical supplies are running out or already gone
    Inflation is probably running 35% but tax revenue is only up 21% which means there is a LOT less activity... A LOT!!

    “How do destroy a country in a few short years”, an my personal story by CFK

    Brr

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 12:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • briton

    As long as you have indocronoughts that believe there empress’s holy words, then we are just wasting our time,

    If Argentina says there is nothing wrong, then so be it,
    If her indocronoughts think all is ok, and they are riding the crest of a wave, who is to argue with them,

    For you can only cry wolf once to often,
    And when that day finally comes and they are drowning rats in a sewer,
    Why should we care?
    After all,
    A country that’s doing brilliantly, does not need any help,
    Another wolf we suspect lol.

    .

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 12:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    9 DanyBerger (#)

    You obviously didn't read the article you linked, to obtain a Brixton £ you have to pay for it with a Sterling £. Therefore the B£ has the backing of the Sterling£.

    With our funny money, Patacones, etc. they had no finacial backing, only the Provincial promise to pay their face value in pesos, thus they were adding to the inflationary pressure on the peso.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 01:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    9 DanyBerger

    Ha ha, you really are an idiot aren't you. You don't even understand what a Brixton pound is. Firstly I live on the edge of brixton and have never seen a Brixton pound. Secondly, you can only get them by exchanging them for Pounds. They trade at face value and it is an optional thing you can decide to buy them if you want to, they are not issued by the a province to pay wages etc...Idiot. You're just making me laugh now at your general stupidity and lack of knowledge.

    Anyway, are you going to comment on what is happening in BA, sounds like great news! Or are you going to do your usual and try and change the subject. I've just heard news that three major factories have closed down in one day! Carnes Pampeanas, Nucete and Chascomús...do you wnat to comment on this?

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 01:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Idlehands

    I thought the “Brixton Pound” was a place to bang up rioters.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 01:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    15. His comments are very reminiscent of Ogara's ALL IS WELL, ALL IS WELL, Clarin and LaNacion Lie!
    Funny Ogara used to tell me the car mfg were great, getting better every day, huge amounts are being exported but this was in Jan based on last years numbers. I told him that was the past but the future is much different. I think every car mfg has laid off workers now, 1000s of them!!
    I wonder how you have 5.5% growth with higher unemployment, decreasing consumer purchases, decreasing exports, factories and stores shutting down...I wonder...many this new economic model is something to study? hahaha

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 01:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    17 yankeeboy (#)

    I've been keeping a running count on the Renault factory in Córdoba, so far they have laid off 3.600 workers.

    This just shows the success of the “model”, Kretina is making more impoverished people to sell their votes to her!!!

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 01:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    16 Idlehands

    It's where DunniBurger is going on holiday. Or we can easily arrange it for him and throw away the key.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    You have to feel sorry for Scioli. He is touted as being the hope for the economically literate in Argentina but now the Association of State Workers are saying that they will take action if they don't get their bonuses. He is being squeezed. He can't pay the wages of the workers because of government policies and he will be partly blamed by the workers. I can't remember the exact number of state employees but with these guys taking action and the Unions at the same time you've got a real problem...

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:19 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    BA has around 500,000 employees.

    Patacones are the only solution if CFK refuses to send Peso..

    Let's see who blinks first.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    500,000 in the state sector in BA alone, in a population of 40,000,000. Isn't that a little....inflated ;-)

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    There is a custom in Arg that you can have a job but you don't have to show up until pay day. They're called gnocchis. So there are 500K on payroll who knows how many are actually working though.

    And they wonder why they're a mess.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    Yup, I heard the term used quite a lot recently. Scioli has just said thanks for the cash but we don't know where on earth we're going to get the other 2/3rds. Mass walk outs and protests in the street very soon. Anyone have any idea when they are due to be paid (i.e. when is D-Day).

    DanyBerger, I'd be interested to hear your take on the fact that the province that houses your capital city has just run out of cash...

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 03:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I think I read the salaries and bonuses were due next Tuesday.

    Has anyone heard if there are any other LNG shipments on the way?

    I see the BCRA reserves are decreasing U$50MM a DAY even with massive buying of U$.

    I wonder why if the economy is growing 5.5% a year. That's China growth rates!!

    I can't imagine anyone is dumb enough to believe CFK and her minions but everyday I am astounded by the posts here.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 04:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    I found this quote hilarious:

    ”We will keep helping you like we’ve done since 2003. But provincial government needs to learn how to administer and look after their resources with the same skills this President has,” Fernández de Kirchner said...

    Amazing. I wonder if this will ever come back to haunt her?

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 04:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    26 Welsh Wizard (#)

    I think that phrase should be framed and hung in the Casa Rosada alongside Kretina when she is hung for treason!!!

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 04:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #20 So you want Scioli to take over, a rigt wing Peronist to be another Menem? But I think he said he wouldn't stand if Cristina does; thats reason enough for her to run again in my view!

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 04:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    28 British_Kirchnerist (#)

    BK you are definetly dislexic, you're in a muddle over which is right and which is left.

    Kretina is a RIGHT wing pseudo-politician, Scioli is a LEFT wing politician, Moyano is a LEFT wing union leader, Boudou is a RIGHT wing politician, Bimmer is a LEFT wing politician, Macri is a CENTRE RIGHT politician.

    Try to keep that list in mind and perhaps you'll get an idea of what Argentine politics is all about.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 05:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #26 Good quote. Ti amo Cristina =)

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 05:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ElaineB

    @29 BK is a wind-up merchant.

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 07:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Self Determination

    5.1%growth, 9.9% inflation, 4.52 peso/dollar 'official' rate. Does anyone BELIEVE this government ? Fantasy
    Car industry lay offs, Cerra Dragon shut down, LNG imports up- costing $billions, no foreign investment in YPF, soya yields down , import balancing creating production shortages ,strikes. Reality
    Next the propaganda department will be saying that Cristina is a natural blonde, and Alicia Castro is a pilot !

    Jun 29th, 2012 - 09:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    32 Self Determination (#)

    Unfortunately some of the famous 54% still believe that Kretina is a natural blonde and that the trolley dolly is a pilot.

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 12:57 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Chicureo

    Hi Simon,
    Notice THINK seems to have disappeared? It has gotten so bad, that even the fanatics are finally realizing the end game is near. Let's reserve the first one-way overflight of the South Atlantic for dearest Cristina, Maxboy, Trolley-Dolly and Timmerman... On second thought, let them live and let the mobs rip their limbs off...

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 03:28 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #32 “Next the propaganda department will be saying that Cristina is a natural blonde”

    I probably prefer her brunette as she is =) But it would be interesting to see =)

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 06:45 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    BK
    No chance, I can clearly see her grey roots in the photograph.

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 06:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • St.John

    @ 3 Ahab
    “Better wean them off the lies with some half-truths or minor facts distortion.”

    I have many Argentine friends.

    All of them are well aware of the real economic situation and last I visited, they shook their heads and said e.g. 'loco!' when we talked about INDEC figures for inflation and government statements about Argentine national economy in general.

    They do all they can to protect what they may have left after paying the monthly bills. The more affluent buy real estate, cars, etc. and do their best to get foreign currency, while the less affluent buy furniture, washing machines, etc. and store long lived consumer goods like soap, sugar, toilet paper, ...

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 06:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • reality check

    @34Chicureo
    Saludos hombre de edad? como estado guardando, weel espero.
    How are things? missed your entertaining posts. Did you know that KFC is looking for policy makers. Given your highly enlightening ideas on Sino Latin realtions and your exceptional foresight on the use of Tupelov aircraft as a replacement for suitable aircraft used in the air link to the Flaklands Islands, I took the liberty of suggesting you could be just the chap she needs. I am sure if you sent her your CV she would look upon it favourable. I am sorry though my friend, I can not garauntee which currency you areto be paid in, if infact you are paid at all.
    Regrads.

    Jun 30th, 2012 - 07:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • axel arg

    It's really amazing how many of the forists who are from the u. k, and u. s. a, criticise all the time the economic policies of the argentine government, like if their countries were living in a constant prosperity.
    After reading the comments of planty of you, i confirm what i have always thought, i mean the fact that sometimes hate is so strong, which blinds people's minds, thats' why many of you finish making the ignorant comments that you often do, using too partial information.
    The hate that you feel for us, and for c. f. k, doens't let you make an ample and fair analysis of the situation.
    It was already known the fact that we were going to be prejudiced by the world crisis, and we already knew too that our economic activity was going to be lower, in fact that's what's going on right now. Our economy is growing much less than what it grew one year ago, that's why it will necesary to do what we did in 2009, therefore the government started to apply the policies that it applied threee years ago.
    I understand that a future economic crisis in argentina woud be the best news for many of you, but unfortunatelly for you, i must tell you that our economy tolerated different intents of financial coup d' etats, made by the most powerfull corporations, and it's still very solid. So, the best that you can do, is to avoid confusing your own wishes with the reality, because you seem too pathetic, and it's sad because i'm sure that planty of you must be smart people. Our country, and all the rest of latin america will continue growing and tolerating this final economic crisis, which started in the hegemonic nations, and i really hope that your countries improve their situations too, your people deserves it.

    Jul 01st, 2012 - 10:52 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    39 axel arg (#)

    Axel, you are living in a dream world.

    Our “economy” is on its last legs, if the soy crop is as bad as they say, we are totally f**ked.

    Kretina can't go on giving subsidies to the unemployable, a strata of society that Fester and she invented, there is no more money!!!

    The only way to make our economy work is by providing jobs to the unemployed, not unproductive jobs in government agencies, but jobs producing goods that can be sold for cash.

    Clientelism is killing the South American left-wing economies because these countries are producing less and less goods, and will end up flogging their natural recources to China for next to nothing.

    The furture for South America is to follow the examples of Chile, Peru, Colombia, Mexico, the Falklands, countries that are forging ahead while we go backwards into hyperinflation and chaos!!!

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 12:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Simon68

    Ah! Really all your posts make me laugh, mate.

    I’m just waiting for you recommendations to buy shares of Lehman brothers, Icesave Bank and Bankia SA.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 06:58 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    @Simon68

    I have to agree with Idiot @41, I think are completely wrong on this one and am suprised by your total lack on knowledge of the subject. Argentina is not producing less and less goods, this is a nonsense and you know it. They are producing fewer and fewer goods.

    Apart from that, A+

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 09:23 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    “They are producing fewer and fewer goods”

    Argentina industrial sector has reached since last year close to 90/95% of its capacity.
    As industrials have still in memory how they got caught in the ’90 (Menen era) when they made huge investments updating factories, etc. And then got 2001 they are very cautious to get caught again.

    As you probably know a factory has to reach a point of equilibrium to be profitable if you have capacity to meet a demand of 100 (full capacity) and the potential demand at the moment is 120 you have few incentives to invest in a new plant or machinery.

    So till you are not sure that demand will increase to let’s say 150 (point of equilibrium to don’t rise your cost) is better to produce 100.

    So what can you do meantime?

    Simple, someone rise price and other supplies internal demand importing (may be from another plant in Brazil, etc.) the last approach was what some were doing (specially multinationals).

    This has reduced the gap in trade surplus that the govt. wanted to have so new import’s restrictions comes into place.

    Now what would happen?

    The established industrial sector will have to take a decision on what to do in the near future about new investment. Because if they continue to rise price and demand grows they are lowering barrier entry to their business and new competition will rise to dispute their share in the market.

    And trust me a lot of competition is not good for business otherwise is good for consumers.

    So what do you thing is gonna happen?

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 11:20 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    “And trust me a lot of competition is not good for business otherwise is good for consumers”

    It depends what you mean by this, if you mean that some businesses close down as they are not viable because they aren’t good enough to succeed then I suppose you’re right. But if you go down this path, you’re effectively saying that you want an economy filled with also-rans who want to plod along and not evolve.

    Competition will mean you have a thrusting economy with evolving companies pushing the boundaries. Look at Apple, without Bill Gates forcing Apple’s hand and competing against them, Apple would never have evolved into what it is today. This has seen a massive boom in a “new” technology which has fostered even more competition from other tech companies trying break into the market therefore ensuring that everyone is pushing the boundaries and innovating. But, if you prefer status quo, lack of innovation and a production economy which may end up being obsolete in the future then go for lack of competition.

    As for trade, it’s very simple. If I buy soy from Argentina, I will want to enter into a agreement where Argentina buys something from me, thus allowing us to enter into a mutually beneficial relationship and also a relationship which will grow based on trust. If Argentina decides it is going to tax my imports therefore making then uncompetitive then I’ll just go elsewhere to buy my soy, your exports will suffer and the import restrictions will have the effect of increasing the trade deficit. It is very simple.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 12:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    44 Welsh Wizard

    But not simple enough for DunniBurger to grasp.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 12:38 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    As always you make a big salad. Where did I say that I prefer the status quo?

    I just say that from the point of view of a business and profit the monopoly or oligopoly is the perfect equation, that is the reason why companies try to absorb other to keep their market share.

    If the entry barrier in your business is low everyone is tempted to get into and profit gets eroded.

    Microsoft is a good example of what I mean they make huge profit because they have kept the monopoly on PC OS, office applications for business, Photoshop, corporate OS servers, etc.

    When they cannot compete with someone like was the case with NetScape (far better product than Explorer and the base of Mozilla) they (MS) gave the product for free. That crashed NetScape browser business and Mozilla sells bags and T-shirts to rise money. So to make browsers now you have to give them for free where is the profit there?

    “I’ll just go elsewhere to buy my soy, your exports will suffer and the import restrictions will have the effect of increasing the trade deficit. It is very simple.”

    Yeah, Yeah and where are you going to buy your soy for example in France?

    You seem to be like Rajoy that he thought that he could go shopping everywhere for biofuel.

    I understand now why UK is broken.

    Now are you going to by cooper in Belgium and oil in Switzerland perhaps?

    “I will want to enter into a agreement where Argentina buys something from me”
    Btw about what products from UK are you talking about SIVs or sub-primes?

    Tell me please what do you have to sell? Ha ha

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 01:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    That is the point, I've used specifics here but you have to apply them across the entire economy. If you bring in trade restriction such as these then you will find that, overall, your ecomony will suffer (as is happening now). Obviously if you are to ONLY place in the world that produces something then you have a total monopoly, if not then it is likely that your buyer will go elsewhere for its product.

    As an example of what you could buy from the UK:

    nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances (including parts thereof) mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation,bituminous substances and mineral waxes. Cars, rolling stock, medical supplies, Pharmaceutical and Bio-techs, aviation, Food and Drink, communications.

    We don't rely on a couple of massive exports so the industry is quite diversified. As for your question about trade and competition. We are never going to agree so I suggest that we look at Argentina and the UK over the next 5 years and use that as an experiment as to which model works the best.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 01:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • axel arg

    SIMON68.
    You are the best example of what i said in my comment 39.
    The hate that you feel for c. f. k. doesn't let you make an ample analysis of the situation, thats' why you say all the crap that you said in your last comment.
    Firstly, if your argument is kretina, that shows the low level of debate that you have, as the journalist that i want to be some day, i have always needed to debate also with people who doesn't think like me, but when i see that people like you answers me comments, i start to wonder if i should continue spending my time answering the comments of people like you.
    On the other hand, you can insult as much as you like c. f. k's policies, that won't impide that the country continues growing, in fact, i just read a report from the ministry of industry, where it rejected the lies that were published in press, respecting the growth of the economy, and it said that the economy grew 5,1% between janory and march, but the level of inverstments is lower than one year ago. Like i said before, it was already known the fact that we were going to be prejudiced by this crisis, thats' why this year the economic expantion is going to be much lower.
    Beside, when you say that argentina should follow the example of chile, mexico, colombia and perú, you omit that all those countries are much more unequal than argentina, anyway i dont deny that maybe they improved their social situation, but the social unequality in those countries is much worse than here.
    On the other hand, if you think that argentina should create jobs, you have to know that the procrear programme, which aims to build new houses, will create 200000 jobs.
    Finally, when you say that clientelismo is killing southamerican leftist economies, i know what you mean. The problem of ignorant like you, is that you dont take into account that solving the problem of poverty will take many years, meantime, the state must help the poorest sectors too, because they join the country too, like it or not.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 03:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    Axel,

    I stand by my previous comments.

    As to the fight against poverty in Argentina, we were doing pretty well until 2010 where we were down to 13.9% of the population below the poverty line, but in 2011, in ONE YEAR we shot back to 30%. Now that frightens me because although our economy is in a bad way, it is still not THAT bad, so this could be the start of a trend and if it is it could mean that in 3 years we are back to the 51% of 2003.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 05:14 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Self Determination

    Whilst the USA ,EEC and UK have huge problems caused by the banking crisis and toxic debt,the major problem facing Argentina is INFLATION.
    Inflation disproportionately affects the poor, as the basics - food ,rent,
    heating ,clothes,transport are all rising.
    Does anyone in Argentina believe that inflation is 9.9% ?
    The vicious circle of higher prices leads to higher wages and makes manufacturing and exports uncompetitive ,creating unemployment.
    @Simon 68 -I find your comments are measured ,when certain people disagree with you ,they launch personal attacks - eg “ hate filled and ignorant ” which mean they have lost the debate.

    Jul 02nd, 2012 - 10:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    Lets see the hypocrisy here right?

    Who are imposing quotes on Agri-Business? EU, USA, JAPAN, etc.
    These are not trade restrictions? and the USD policy?

    Now lets see you example about “ecomony will suffer” this is true for an western European economy because EU needs to import a lot especially food, oil and row materials.

    But for countries like Argentina or Brazil is not the case if they get rid of the dollar monopoly.

    Now lets see your list:

    Nuclear reactors: Argentina made them and won over UK, Canada, Germany and USA the bid for the Australian reactor. http://www.treehugger.com/corporate-responsibility/argentina-exports-reactor-to-australia-and-ratifies-its-nuclear-plan.html

    Boilers: what brand do you like to buy from Argentina?
    Machinery: what is not produced in Argentina is bought from Germany, US or Japan.
    Mineral fuels: Do you mean coal? Argentina extracts and produces it in Rio Turbio YCF a fuel that is in decline here.

    Mineral oils and products of their distillation: Really? And what do you think oil distilleries and petrochemicals do in Argentina? Bread?

    Bituminous substances: Do you mean that substance better known as asphalt used in roofing membranes for example? How much would you like to buy?

    Cars: This is really good ha ha with your wheel steer in the right? Anyway why to buy from UK if you can buy excellent cars from Germany?

    Well I will not extend more because 2k character are not enough all what you cite in your list are thinks that Argentina can export to you.

    “rolling stock, medical supplies, Pharmaceutical and Bio-techs, aviation, Food and Drink, communications.” Really?

    You only forgot to say wine, meat and soy to be exported from UK.

    You see here a practical example of what I was talking about before. Industrialised goods face too much competition due to wrong policies like the subsidies to the farming sector in US, EU and Japan forcing big commodities exporters to become industrialised.

    But UK can buy sats from Ar

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 01:41 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    Go back to my post @44 and, where I say “If I buy soy from Argentina” and substitue “I” everyother counrty in the world. In the end, market forces will always move against those who are putting in place protectionist measures where others aren't unless they have a total monopoly.
    As for a US$ monopoly, yes, this hurts your export business but until you sort your currency out (and you won't do that with your current policies) then you are stuck with the Greenback I'm afraid.

    “rolling stock, medical supplies, Pharmaceutical and Bio-techs, aviation, Food and Drink, communications.” Really?

    Yes, just go look it up.

    You obviusly like your system. That's fine and you're welcome to it. What do your think about the government having the bail out 3 major energy providers with loans of 100,000,000 pesos?

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 08:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    “where I say “If I buy soy from Argentina” and substitue “I” everyother counrty in the world”

    I understood very well what you try to say what you don’t understand is that soy like cooper, oil and other commodities, row materials, etc. are just few countries who produce them.

    So if you want soy or cooper you have to dance like it or not with those countries.
    Don’t convinced yet?

    See US and Venezuela despite what US says they keep buying Venezuela Oil and I guess that they are more oil producer countries than soy producer countries.

    The 3 biggest producer are US, Brazil and Argentina if some of these pull out of the market the price rise to the clouds.

    Est-ce que vous me comprenez?

    “What do your think about the government having the bail out 3 major energy providers with loans of 100,000,000 pesos?”

    Just 20M dollars to keep energy cheap for factories and consumers.

    Well that is much better than to bailout bankesters with billions of dollars and send your economy into depression like UK had done.

    What do you thing?

    Italy had built the entire clothing business by subsidising the fabric used in factories.

    France has become an important food player thanks to the EU Agri-subsidies.

    Seems that works and after all UK has created the financial sector by giving preferential tax regime to them.

    So you have choices and your country choose to become a big bank now you will have to live with that.

    Don’t blame others for you own bad decisions.

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 09:36 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    I'm not blaming anyone. In fact, I'm not changing the conversation away from the issues with my own country all the tinme. As I said, lets wait 5 years and see who is doing better.

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 10:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    Well seems you do.
    Have not been told in your economy lessons that Britain was the nation with more protectionist policy and that jeopardised the commerce world-wide with her Import substitution policy in 1930?

    UK have built the Empire like this, do you know how started the use of “made in xx country”?

    When German Steel archived high quality and other goods produced by Germans start to compete with Britain who at the time exercised the virtual monopoly of the commerce, Britain passed the “Merchandise Marks Act” in 1887.

    That imposed to German products to be labelled and market with the legend “Made in Germany” that way they thought that they can keep out of competence German products by marketing British unmarked as superior quality and the others (market) poor low quality ones.

    As the German products ended up to be far better quality the “Made in” turns into a distinctive of excellent quality. So in the end Britain had to adopt the “made in” stuff, but I guess that was when already was ruined. Ha ha

    And The Navigation Laws?
    “After the restoration of Charles II, Parliament continued this policy of protecting English trade. In new legislation passed in 1660, 1662 and 1663 trade between England and her colonies was effectively limited to English (or colonial) shipping.”

    “Under 18th century legislation, certain colonial exports, such as sugar, rice and tobacco, had to be shipped first to England before they could be re-exported to European ports. Duties were usually payable when the goods were landed in England”

    Now that you are in the mess want to sell free trade to others?

    Come on do you think that the world is so stupid?

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 10:57 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    “lets wait 5 years and see who is doing better”

    If Cristina is able to defeat the sabotage of the right wing sectors, and if Cameron is able to keep up austerity, then undoubtedly Argentina will be doing better. Hopefully Cristina will and Cameron won't, but even then I doubt we'll get as good a government as hers in the near future so they'll still probably be doing better

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 11:09 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    @55 and it didn't work so I'm telling you from a position of authority and knowledge that it won't work. Thanks for backing up my point.

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 11:43 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • axel arg

    SIMON68.
    What kind of indexes do you read?. I dont deny that i have doubts about the numbers that are published by the indec, but i take into account the indexes of seven provinces which are independent from the indec, and they say that the level of poverty is 17%, i dont know where you got that 30%. On the other hand, i would like you to tell me, what country is going well right now?, we can't be so inocent and not to believe that all the countries will be prejudiced by the crisis, but it will depend on the decisions that each government takes, in order to mitigate the impact of the crisis in the economies of their countries, we could tolerate succesfully the impact in 2009, and i'm sure that we'll do it again.

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 02:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Simon68

    58 axel arg (#)

    I sincerely hope that you are right about mitigating the impact of the economic crisis, but I'm afraid the government's policies are not going to do the trick.
    We are effectively out of money! The next best thing to bankrupt. And the government still insists on subsidizing huge sectors of the unproductive population. This is not going to mitigate the crisis, with inflation at 30%+ it is going to add fuel to the fire!!!!

    Jul 03rd, 2012 - 03:20 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @Welsh Wizard

    You seem a body builder that after being taking steroid for 20 years and become bigger like an elephant now preach to other competitors that the way to go is natural. Ha ha

    “Cambridge University Professor Ha-Joon Chang argues that virtually all developed countries today successfully promoted their national industries through protectionism”

    “Protectionism it is a very common clever device that when anyone has attained the summit of greatness, he/she kicks away the ladder by which he has climbed up, in order to deprive others of the means of climbing up after him/her. In this remains the secret of the cosmopolitical doctrine of Adam Smith, and of the cosmopolitical tendencies of his great contemporary William Pitt, and of all his successors in the British Government administrations. Any nation which by means of protective duties and restrictions on navigation has raised her manufacturing power and her navigation to such a degree of development that no other nation can sustain free competition with her, can do nothing wiser than to throw away these ladders of her greatness, to preach to other nations the benefits of free trade, and to declare in penitent tones that she has hitherto wandered in the paths of error, and has now for the first time succeeded in discovering the truth “

    Friedrich List German Economist developer of “The National System of Innovation” and also father of the German historical school of economics and his ideas was the base of the EU.


    So here my conclusion is if free trade is so good for you what is the problem then?

    I will not persuade you that is bad on the contrary keep your free trade and open your borders even more so you will have more benefits and commencing with projectionist as you say will not harm you because free borders is good.

    May be in 10 years when protect-steroids starts to grow big muscles like an elephant ARG, Brazil and others will tell you how good is free trade. Who knows?

    @Simon68
    You wrong again!

    Jul 04th, 2012 - 06:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    Simon68

    Hi Simon.

    Good news! DunniBurger says 'You are wrong again!

    SO YOU MUST BE CORRECT. :o)

    Jul 04th, 2012 - 11:21 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • axel arg

    SIMON68.
    Your comment is more an idiological posture, than a concern about the crisis. What you dont want to realise, is that what you propose would get worse the situation, if you eliminate the subsides to the poor people, that would restrain the craving of goods, which would prejudice planty of people. That's exactly what many european countries are doing, can't you see what's going on in spain, italy, greece, ireland, the u. k, portugal etc etc?. Actually you dont care about mitigating the impact of the crisis, you are just using that argument, in order to express and propose that the state shoudn't continue helping the poorest sectors of the society, but there is something that you will have to understand once and for all. Like it or not, those people join the country too, i know that the best way of reducing the poverty is creating jobs for those people too, however thats' something that will take many years, because none government will finish in 10 years, with the a structural poverty which takes more than 30 years in the country, meantime, it's absolutly necesary that the state helps those people, giving them subsides, so they can eat and take their children to school, beside, i read that many of them of the people who used to charged the a. u. h could find a job, and dont receive the subside anymore, on the other hand, the subside was eliminated for a few people because they didn't comply with the conditions of it. Respecting the impact of the crisis, i already told you in another comment that our economy tolerated different intents of financial coup d' etats, and i'm sure it will continue doing it.

    Jul 04th, 2012 - 02:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    #62 Brilliantly said

    Jul 04th, 2012 - 03:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    @ChrisRambo,

    1-The guy that keeps telling that he is an engineer and has not clue about what blob tech is.
    2-The same guy that claim to be an arm expert but he could not distinguish between a pistol and revolver.
    3-The guy that preaches day an night about how great is Britain but he moved to Uruguay.

    What about to say something coherent jut for once?

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 12:17 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    DunniBurger

    Those on here who actually read my posts know this is nothing but the reverse (you are, as usual, telling lies).

    I have on at least three occasions proved it is you who do not understand blob technology. When you stopped posting for a while I thought, to my amazement, you had actually got the job you claimed to have in this field. But no, I was correct, you do not have the intelligence, training and most certainly do not have the ability to hold down a job designing blob technology based products. All you have managed to do so far is to provide a link to work done by others in disco applications. That's an edifying application! What about the real life applications that have been proposed? No, they are way beyond your abilities.

    You are in the same class as 'I don't Think': inveterate liars.

    So, you are back here again, working for Le Camping-it-up homo boys. How much do they pay you to write this rubbish? An Argie pesos per comment would be overpaying you.

    Jul 05th, 2012 - 01:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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