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Morgan Stanley cuts Argentina’s growth estimates and forecasts 2013 devaluation

Monday, July 9th 2012 - 19:59 UTC
Full article 46 comments

Morgan Stanley has cut its 2012-13 growth forecasts for Argentina and forecasts a sharp devaluation of the Argentine peso next year as the economy starts to unravel amid high inflation and policy missteps. Read full article


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  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    “Argentina appears to be at the end of one of its longest periods of rapid economic growth in a century.”

    Which Morgan Stanley and all the others promptly and completely missed out on, since they have predicted gloom and doom since circa 2003 (remember how the recovery from 2001 was a dead cat bounce that would stall by the end of that year, according to these same people?)

    They have no credibility whatsoever.

    No, it does not count if they are right this time. Even broken clocks are right twice a day.

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 08:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • PirateLove

    @1 you really believe that?

    while Argentina continues to buries its head in the sand the great ship AA Argentina is at full steam heading for the rocks without a rudder, it will end in tears.

    and i cant wait! :)

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 09:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    “Even broken clocks are right twice a day.”

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 09:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    I will believe Mick Jagger averring that he has been monogamous more so than I believe a jot from UK or US financial institution. I guess you have been saxicolous the last 5 years if you have faith in those reprobates.

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 09:49 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    So the new La Campinsg theme is Morgan Stanley lies...along with Clarin and Lanacion blah blah blah.
    Gosh don't they ever get tired of the same old story?

    As I said yesterday 7/1 will be the gov't rate..if they're lucky and if the peso doesn't get away from them...once panic sets in who knows where it will fall out.
    So watch for hyperinflation to quickly follow...then the real devaluation will happen....anyone remember the Austral?

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 10:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    “The Peso has also firmed against the dollar as the central bank's gradual weakening of the currency hasn't come close to offsetting inflation.”

    As I have been saying here for month, and yankeeboy refuses to learn from the smarter man that I am, Argentina is not “devaluating” in the most known sense. It is de facto revaluating because of the high inflation rate.

    If yankeeboy came with his 10k a month salary in 2009, he would have gotten 38k pesos. I he comes today he would get 45-50k, but they buy MUCH less than the 38k once did. Which means he needs to bring 13-15K... which means that to him, Argentina is more expensive.

    That's not exactly a devaluation, and why Argentines now have more purchasing power to go overseas.

    Of course yankeeboy accused me of not knowing my economics, but here is his God Morgan Stanley saying just as much.

    I'm too smart for y'all.

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 10:36 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • briton

    you certainly are,

    whats 2 and 2,
    one anwser only.

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 11:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    In Argentina 4.

    In Britain, a swingers' night.

    Jul 09th, 2012 - 11:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • xbarilox

    Comment removed by the editor.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 01:24 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    Tell me barilox, do you still tend the bathrooms at Grisu? One of the best nightclubs on Earth, I admit, better than anything in Mendoza.

    We may have run into each other when I left you to clean my ordure as I went back to dance with beautiful chicks from all over South America.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 01:31 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Chicureo

    #6 TTT
    Your economic analysis is fascinating...
    Have you ever thought about getting a job with the North Korean news service?You'd fit it beautifully.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 02:04 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll


    You worked at Grisu too? Close enough to the Chilean border, and of course loads of Chilean girls go there to try to find something missing in their lives.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 02:15 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    I went to Grisu once..... Nice place....
    That was like 16 years ago.... Wonder what that entire city looks like nowadays....I ll have to admit that I didn't see any villas or sewer water running by the curve there like I saw in Buenos Aires ....
    My was in Buenos Aires last week and he told me that villas are growing by the airport now.... Wow he said villeros will welcome us to Argentina when we get there Monday morning!

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 03:08 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    What's with the obsession people here have for the villas in Buenos Aires? They are only 10% of the size of the villas in Sao Paulo, Rio, Mexico City, Caracas, Bogota, Lima, etc, etc, if that. Compared to the rest of Latin America the villas of BA are kiddy stuff.

    I've never seen sewer water running in the streets, period. Except maybe during a massive storm 7 years ago, when all the lids on the sidewalks blew.

    Another one that worke at Grisu, who would have thougtht?

    Just another place where I conquered foreign soil. :)

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 03:50 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    I never worked for Grisu...I spend my teenage years in Argentina and my Senior Yr Trip was to Bariloche...a good place to tag someone according to my schoolmates.
    And regarding the villas:
    Caraza, Fiorito, Ing Bunge, Diamante, Retiro, La Cava, Camino Negro (oh my what a place to be)
    I lived in BA for a while, and even though it was not most of my life, I still remember the kids wearing Nike shoes pulling a “botellero” buggy
    The waters on the streets, main avenue in Great Buenos Aires' Lanus, water coming from the houses and being dumped into a large in the 40s around here....
    I remember taking Bus 20 and I dont remember why right this second but it took us somewhere you had to duck and avoid the arrows flying from the savages on both sides of the bus :)

    I cannot say what it is to live there now or before that because I was here until my teens and moved back here shortly after a couple of years of college down there (another big adventure) , but I remember my teenage years....
    so regardless of villas being less than in other places, you do not see that here and furthermore, if you go to Canada, their villas are middle class homes here in the US.... so to give you an idea...the projects here (low income housing) are luxurious compared to many neighborhoods in BA, our ghetto is a country club compared to BA s villas.
    No offense, but it is true....
    Good day

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 06:27 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Nightingale

    Grisu bad argentina haircuts and a throw back to the club scene of the 90's... please move on

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 07:13 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Welsh Wizard

    This is all lies, lies and more lies. What they are saying can’t be right because it doesn’t match government statistics. I can see what is going on here, it’s a right wing conspiracy to spread lies and destabilise the government. I have also heard rumours that the only reason why this has been released is that one of the people on the South America desk at Morgan Stanley is lobbying to stand against Cristina in 2015 and using this as a pre-emptive attack on the government.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 08:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    Isn't TiT wonderful? A true son (?) of argieland. Start with denial and then move on to ad hominem. Let's just wait and see, shall we. Argieland still has loads of debts to pay off. Isn't it around £225m to the UK alone? That's pounds sterling, TiT, not pesos. That would be 1,576,265,110 pesos. Shouldn't be a problem. Have a look in CFK's purse. Although you might find she only has dollars!

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 12:17 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger


    I guess you have to get out more often mate.

    Shantytowns Ontario

    Los Angeles California

    Sacramento california


    New jersey

    San Diego US streets full of formerly middle class

    Poverty in rural areas

    US Poverty documentary

    Pretty shocking isn't it?

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 12:44 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll


    I'll take care myself of those 225 million phounds. I get it, the UK is desperate to plug the holes on the ship, falling to such a level of self-denigration it is resorting to begging for this kind of scrap change on the world stage. How the mighty have fallen...


    Even 5 years ago the UK was producing (still) pretty good music. Today? Has anyone even heard a good song out of there? The only one that maybe has some spark left is Ella Gold. Otherwise, it is a sad wasteland of a former great country in music (no, Coldplay is washed up now).

    I guess you do have some great music: One Direction, LOL!


    And the London scene is the most overrated on EARTH. Everyone with brains goes to the Netherlands, and not to Amsterdam, for the only club life of worth in Europe.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 01:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Redrabs


    You obviously haven't heard of Muse, Mumford and Sons, Noah and the Whale, Bellowhead, Keane and lots of other UK uber groups.

    Finally Coldplay have one of the biggest selling albums this year and so are not exactly washed up.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 04:06 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll

    Muse? That's from when I was a kid!! Keane? Good piano touche, but again their best stuff was back in 05 or somewhereabouts.

    Coldplay, to us that know music, are washed up. By that I mean nothing innovative, they are good, but it's not like they are groundbreaking.

    The other stuff sounds indie, and indie is allright, but there is great indie in most countries, because of the nature of the genre. Nothing unique to the UK, per say.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 04:10 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    I quite agree.
    Last year I decided to update my music collection for the first time in way too long. I read around music magazines and looked to see what had been winning acclaim, then downloaded accordingly. I was sadly disappointed with the results. Most was rubbish.

    Cold Play = commercialised Radio Head.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 06:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    Well of course, because Argentina had world known music as well....pimpinela...horacio guarani.. some cumbia......I remember when they were at the madison square garden....or it was just a dream?

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 08:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Tabare cardozo is music. Still, lets be fair to the old UK, they still produce good music. I like Amy MacDonald for some reason...

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 09:15 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • British_Kirchnerist

    “Argentina appears to be at the end of one of its longest periods of rapid economic growth in a century”

    Even if thats true its far from a disaster that the K model has led to such unprecedented success in the first place. Missed out on by the financiers as pointed out by TTT. So why actually should we trust them now?

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 10:27 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll


    God bless your unilluminated soul.

    Some Piazzolla


    and... 60s + 90s

    Please stick to American music dear, don't venture to what you clue don't have.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 10:53 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    God bless Cerati.

    Jul 10th, 2012 - 11:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    American music is listened to all over the world... :)

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 12:21 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    You have great musicians, but you have better commercialised music than you have good music. This doesn't take any credits from the many great musicians your country holds, I only wish we could hear more of them and less of Lady Gaga and Rihanna...

    Enjoy :)

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 12:40 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Truth_Telling_Troll


    Not of late. Which US rock bands are really renowned right now? None. What about Jazz? Most good jazz is coming from places other than the USA. Rap is America's Cumbia Villera. Nothing else really registers from the USA outside those three. Most electronica is European, country music is not popular outside the country.

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 01:13 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    In the name of American unity, a Chilean classic:

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 01:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    In the name of everybody who works behind the scenes

    Sent from my iPhone

    Check out this video on YouTube:

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 03:32 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Keep it coming!
    Good music has no borders :)

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 09:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight
    some styx

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 12:33 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Even though I'm atheist, great vibes on that tune

    Try this one (hope you understand spanish, my songs are all about lyrics)

    By the way, TTT, that Cerati piece is an amazing work of art...

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 05:08 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • AmericanLight

    It s song about hopes and dreams... Very nice

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 06:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    @36 / 37
    A little negative I would say. Life gives infinitely more than dreams.

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 06:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    I admit to the nostalgy, but the text says “your dreams will give you what life doesn't”, not that life will bring you nothing but dreams...

    How about this one Condorito,

    I liked your song by the way. Thanks for sharing

    Jul 11th, 2012 - 08:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    I didn’t mean “life will bring you nothing but dreams”, I meant, life can give you so much more than dreams.

    Benedetti y Viglietti: very poetic and moving, I liked it. I hadn’t heard it before, thanks.

    But, less nostalgia, dwelling and, love and regret not:

    They copied the music and they copied the song, but I still love it.

    Jul 12th, 2012 - 02:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Guzz

    Epic :)

    Jul 12th, 2012 - 03:02 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger

    Well if we are going back to ARG bands from the ’80 here my contribution. Ha ha

    ZAS (Miguel Mateos)



    Abuelos de la nada

    Rata Blanca

    Jul 12th, 2012 - 06:59 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    You forgot the Enanitos Verdes.

    Jul 12th, 2012 - 03:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • DanyBerger


    Just for you... and with lyrics ha ha

    Jul 13th, 2012 - 08:06 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Condorito

    Thanks. I have the CD from back in the days when people used to buy music ;)

    Jul 13th, 2012 - 02:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • MarkWhelan

    Condorito are you reallythat old?

    When people used to buy music.
    Was that individually or one would buy so the others could copy it?
    What a quaint and novel system. The recording companies must have loved those times.

    Jul 14th, 2012 - 03:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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