MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Soy supply in 2013 expected to be highly dependent on South American supply

Argentina’s crop is estimated to increase 38% and reach 56 million tons

A leading international consultant on grains and oilseeds estimates that Argentina’s soy crop could increase 38% to 56 million tons in 2013, a year when world supply will become more dependent on South America because of smaller inventories in countries such at the US and China.

“The world market will become more and more dependent on South American supplies in March/September 2013 because of soybean inventories significantly lower in the US, China and other countries towards February 2013”, said analysts from Oil World.

At the beginning of next year South America will begin harvesting an enormous crop of soy with a strong export demand that will help alleviate the tight global supply, following the severe droughts suffered by the US, Brazil and Argentina this year.

In this scenario Oil World estimates Argentina’s soy crop to increase 38% to 56 million tons from the 40.5 million tons of 2012, while Brazil is expected to harvest 82 million tons compared to this year’s, 66.4 million tons.

The US and Brazil compete as the world’s leading exporter of soybeans, while Argentina has consolidated in third position.

Other South American countries soybean crops are also expected to be bountiful. Paraguay in 2013 should climb from 4.5 million tons in 2012 to 8.6 million tons next year and Uruguay should see production reach 3.1 million tons from 2.4 million. Bolivia’s increase is more modest from 2.37 million to 2.45 million tons, according to Oil World estimates.

But in spite of the encouraging prospects there are concerns because dry weather in parts of Brazil and Paraguay is delaying sowing the oil seed.