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Argentine vote intention polls confirm challenger Massa chances for this month’s mid-term election

Tuesday, October 1st 2013 - 04:08 UTC
Full article 4 comments
Mayor Sergio Massa emerging as the new leader in Argentina Mayor Sergio Massa emerging as the new leader in Argentina

With less than a month for Argentina’s mid term elections the opposition to President Cristina Fernandez in the province of Buenos Aires, the largest and crucial electoral circuit clearly leads in public opinion polls and continues to advance over the primary results of August.

“It looks as the beginning of the end of a cycle” said Jorge Arias, and analyst from pollster Polilat. He added that the Argentine electorate seems to have deposited in Sergio Massa, head of the Renewal Movement and former cabinet chief “the trust to lead this growing public opinion”.

Massa the mayor of the city of Tigre (over a million inhabitants) in metropolitan Buenos Aires has thirteen points of advantage over Martin Insurralde the government candidate and strongly supported by President Cristina Fernandez

According to pollster Raul Aragon & Associates, released by Infobae, the Renewal Front has a vote intention of 44.9% ahead of 27 October, while Insaurralde stands with 31.8%. If these percentages are confirmed at the end of the month, Massa will have trebled the five-point difference of the 11 August primary, when the contender managed 35.05% of ballots and the Kirchnerite candidate 29.65%.

The challenger has climbed in public opinion support apparently because of the poor showing of another opposition candidate Francisco de Narváez, who opinion polls have him with 4% of vote intention while in August he managed 10.5%,

Behind Massa and Insaurralde figures Margarita Stolbizer from the Progressive Front with 13.8% of vote intention.

However it must be pointed out that the Victory Front of President Cristina Fernandez managed to catch 26.31% of the vote in the primaries, reaffirming its condition of the main political force, but quite distant from the overwhelming 54% in the presidential election of 2011, besides losing in the main provinces: Buenos Aires, Cordoba, Santa Fe and Buenos Aires City.

According to Polilat analyst Arias with the emergence of Massa and other opposition figures such as Governor Juan Manuel de la Sota in Cordoba or Socialist Hermes Binner in Santa Fe: “it looks as if the possibility of constructing a new strong leadership is emerging and with good chances for the presidential election in 2015”, when President Cristina Fernandez has to step down.

The government of President Cristina Fernandez following the August primary losses introduced new measures to combat crime and insecurity, cut fiscal pressure on the middle class but so far “they seem to be insufficient to change the tide”.

“The government has tried to synchronize public opinion demands and has tried to gain back public opinion, but the problem is that the measures even when celebrated are seen as implemented with an electoral objective”, said Virginia Garcia Bordeaux from the University of Belgrano.

One of the great changes of the government’s current campaign refers to Cristina Fernandez, the great protagonist of the primaries but now absent from posters with incumbent Insaurralde appearing on his own.

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  • CabezaDura

    I would not rule out the chances of Daniel Scioli and Macri quite yet… I think both of them have far more chances than Binner or De La Sota. If Massa decides to go for the formal endorsement of the peronist party in a internal primary, then he will have to compete against Governor Scioli (the eternal mystery of the absent presence) who has been waiting for over a decade for his moment to see gone the Kirchnerite presidential couple crushing his rise, and yet strangely, after all this humiliation he endured over time by Kirchner and his wife he retains a very high positive image and vote intention in the key Province of BA…

    Oct 01st, 2013 - 04:03 pm 0
  • ChrisR

    But he is still a Peronista and carries all the baggage that it entails.

    Even if he gets in nothing will change, it is impossible to change 15M hyena’s spots (Peronista’s do not rate qualifying as leopards being a bunch of cowards).

    Oct 01st, 2013 - 07:38 pm 0
  • CabezaDura

    @2 That is true… I don’t vote peronists nor I would vote for Massa if I lived in that district he is running for, but the fact that he is so quiet and avoids giving any real and clear opinion on any important issue and topic but rather focuses on selling out this image of “the young easy going mayor that knows how to administrate properly his district” sort of thing, means that he very probably is in for substantial change once he reaches power, but he just keeps quiet about it… Saying and talking about some stuff is not good for getting votes, often the electorate doesn’t like the truth very much

    Oct 01st, 2013 - 08:16 pm 0
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