MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Opposition to Cristina Fernandez consolidates for mid-term election in two weeks

Despite a recovery of Cristina Fernandez image post-surgery, Massa continues to advance and has a 42% vote intention

Argentine President Cristina Fernandez candidate for the 27 October mid term election in the crucial Buenos Aires province is trailing by eight points his main rival, Sergio Massa who is leading with 41.2% of vote intention according to the latest public opinion poll released by Poliarquía, one of the country’s most respected pollsters.

Massa who basically represents the growing dissatisfaction with President Cristina Fernandez administration, if successful in his bid could also emerge as serious candidate to the leadership of the Peronist movement that dominates Argentine politics in an almost hegemonic way and thus a formidable contender for the presidential election in 2015, when the widow of Nestor Kirchner must step down.

Anyhow Martin Insaurralde her hand picked candidate is not doing that bad because with 33.2% he is three points up from the 29.6% he managed last August when primaries were held. At the time Massa received 34.9% which also means he has grown faster.

Nevertheless the gap has shortened because at the end of September before Cristina Fernandez underwent subdural surgery to remove a blood clot, the difference stood at eleven points, and this means that somehow there is a positive effect for Insaurralde from the president’s medical condition. 

“In effect there is a positive effect for the government in these weeks because of the president’s health condition. But it’s not substantial: the order of the candidates remains: who wins and who loses, just an adjustment of numbers”, said Fabian Perechodnik, head of Poliarquía.

“There was also a strong campaign effort for Insaurralde with the support from Buenos Aires province governor Daniel Sciloi, and the speech was more moderate”, added Perechodnik.

With Massa and Insaurralde holding almost 75% of vote intention in the province of Buenos Aires, the largest and most influential in Argentina (40% of the country’s vote), there’s not much room left for the remaining candidates. In effect both leading candidates are ‘sucking’ support from the minor hopefuls.

The opinion poll covered 2.200 phone interviews, for people in voting age, 18-plus and was done between October 14 and 17, with a plus/minus error of 2.1%.

Another opinion poll shows that the image of President Cristina Fernandez, (60), has increased considerably since she underwent surgery for the blood clot last 8 October.

According to Management & Fit, 43.9% now have a positive image of the president while the negative stands at 30.2%. This contrasts with a previous poll from 4 October, when the difference was negative in 7.8% compared to the 13.7% positive of the latest.

This latest positive image is the highest since May 2012 compared to the 34% at the beginning of October. The poll included 800 interviews between October 11 and 17.

“The health condition of the president triggered empathy and solidarity in public opinion, as could be expected and this is reflected in a better appraisal of her performance” said Mariel Fornoni, head of F&T Public Opinion.