MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency

Advice for Mujica: “professional, not presidential diplomacy” to deal with Cristina Fernandez

Fraga is one of the most respected political analysts in Argentina.

Uruguayan president Jose Mujica is fed up with problems with Argentina but must abandon the 'presidential diplomacy' and turn to 'professional diplomacy' because President Cristina Fernandez will not modify her conduct, warned one of Argentina's most respected political analysts, Rosendo Fraga.

"Cristina will be back in full during November, which does not mean her health will not continue to be a problem, but true to her style will double the bet and we'll see her advance fully convinced of her ideas and her lines of action", said Fraga during a conference organized by KPMG which to a great extent frustrated the expectations of many who believed that things in Argentina could change following the recent midterm elections and her medical condition.

"You can also bet that the controversial Domestic Trade minister Guillermo Moreno will continue in his job and following instructions", added Fraga.

The Argentine political analyst forecasted that the relation between Uruguay and Argentina "will most probably become more complicated than less complicated" because the foreign policy of Cristina is "very confrontational" and has led her to problems with other neighbors such as Brazil and Chile. "It's not a particular specific attitude towards Uruguay".

Fraga warned that 'presidential diplomacy' makes things worse. "There's an excess of presidential diplomacy over professional diplomacy. Presidential diplomacy sometimes helps but sometimes can further complicate things. With a character such as that of Cristina Fernandez, things become more complicated".

Understandably President Mujica is 'fed up', but those are the problems of presidential diplomacy, in which the characters and the state of mind of leaders play a too important role". Thus Uruguay should "rebuild its arguments" and try to recover but joining Brazil in trying to achieve a trade and cooperation agreement with the European Union.

Towards 2015 it's possible that Uruguay can channel back relations with Argentina unless Cristina Fernandez candidate, the current governor of Entre Ríos, Sergio Urribarri wins the presidential elections, who undoubtedly will be "the only bad president for Uruguay" because of his strong rejection to the Botnia/UPM pulp mill.

Urribarri's Entre Rios province stands across from Uruguay's Fray Bentos where the pulp mill is located and has led the fight to try and close and remove the pulp mill on Uruguayan territory alleging environmental reasons.

Fraga also anticipated that most probably the non-Peronist forces of the Argentine political arch will not be able to work out a competitive alternative since 'it is too heterogeneous'.

"Peronism is a political force that has become the access ramp to power in Argentina, it always has something to offer to demand, and besides it covers the whole of the ideological arch".

But, pointed out Fraga "the problem is that Peronism does not have clear succession rules. Whoever is in power tries to remain the most: you can win an election without Peronism but you can't rule without Peronims. This, Sergio Massa (the big winner of October's mi-term elections) knows very well. If elections were held today I's dare say we would have three Peronist candidates".

Regarding the economic scenario, "Cristina is well aware that Argentina needs adjustments but will try and leave them for her successor because they could lead to social chaos". And regarding the dwindling international reserves of the Central bank "it's not a priority for Cristina Fernandez: she wants to deliver them at the same level she received them".