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Brazil's current account deficit climbs to 3.6% of GDP during March

Monday, April 28th 2014 - 08:42 UTC
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Central bank official Maciel confident FDI will help keep the index at 3.6%, because of a weaker Real  Central bank official Maciel confident FDI will help keep the index at 3.6%, because of a weaker Real

Brazil's current account deficit narrowed in March after an improvement in the trade balance, but it was still the second largest on record for that month, central bank data showed. The country posted a current account deficit of 6.248 billion last month, down from 7.445bn in February.

 Brazil's current account deficit has widened in recent years despite a depreciation of the local Real currency, which was expected to cut imports and fuel exports. But continued robust demand for imports and low levels of domestic savings have kept the external accounts under pressure, analysts say.

A trade surplus of 112 million dollars in March, coming after two straight months of deficits, eased some of the pressure on the country's current account. The trade surplus, however, was the smallest since 2001.

Brazil's trade balance has been hard hit by rising fuel imports and a drop in the price of iron ore and some other key exports. A sharp depreciation of Argentina's peso has also curbed Brazil's manufacturing exports to its neighbor.

The Brazilian current account deficit hit 6.838 billion in March 2013, a record for that month. In the last 12 months through March, it was equivalent to 3.64% of GDP compared to the 2.98% in the same month last year.

The deficit will remain stable at around 3.6% of GDP this year in part due to the weaker Real, Tulio Maciel, the central bank's chief of economic research, told reporters.

But loose monetary policy and price controls imposed by President Dilma Rousseff's populist government in the last two years have curbed the Real's impact on the balance of payments, analysts with Nomura said in a report published on Wednesday.

Brazilian officials say continued strong foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign capital inflows into domestic debt and equities will mostly cover the current account deficit this year. The central bank is forecasting FDI of 63 billion and a current account deficit of 80 billion in 2014.

A growing aversion among international investors to riskier assets, particularly in emerging markets, had raised concerns that Brazil might see a drop-off in foreign capital inflows. Markets expected Brazil's FDI would be 3.5 billion in March, but it hit 4.995 billion for the month.

“Strong levels of foreign direct investment shows that foreign investors remain confident about Brazil,” Maciel said.

Categories: Economy, Politics, Brazil.

Top Comments

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  • ChrisR

    “Strong levels of foreign direct investment shows that foreign investors remain confident about Brazil,” Maciel said.

    Yes, and they kept investing when The Liar Mantega stated (in 2012) that growth was going to be 4.7% in 2013. Those that invested had to cope with a depleted cash input of 50%, that’s FIFTY PERCENT of what you expected as a return when Mantega guess for that was what it was, turned out to be 50 odd percent wrong.

    I was just about to invest in Brazil until I worked that out. Damn lucky escape.

    But I just love this logic:
    “The deficit will remain stable at around 3.6% of GDP this year in part due to the weaker Real, Tulio Maciel, the central bank's chief of economic research, told reporters.”

    Let’s just look at the logic here: the real is weaker making imports dearer and the people like imported goods better than home produced ones so the import bill is going to “increase” in Real terms. With prats like this guy and The Liar Mantega, poor old Brazil are in for a difficult time for the next few years.

    It’s almost as if the Finance Ministry have been using TMBOA for advice!

    Apr 28th, 2014 - 02:10 pm 0
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