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Embraer's 20-year market outlook: 6,250 new jets in 70 to 130-seat segment

Saturday, July 19th 2014 - 07:11 UTC
Full article 6 comments
The C-190, one of Embraer's most successful 70 to 130-seat jet aircraft The C-190, one of Embraer's most successful 70 to 130-seat jet aircraft
Embraer' complex is located in Sao Paulo and is among the world's leading manufacturers Embraer' complex is located in Sao Paulo and is among the world's leading manufacturers

Brazil leading aircraft manufacturer and space research company, Embraer has released its Market Outlook 2014-2033 which details the company's forecast for deliveries of new 70 to 130-seat jet aircraft over the next twenty years. The report examines the main drivers contributing to air transport growth and reviews projected deliveries by world region.

 The Market Outlook identifies a need for 6,250 jet aircraft in the 70 to 130-seat capacity category (2,300 units in the 70 to 90-seat segment and 3,950 units in the 90 to 130-seat segment). Replacement of ageing aircraft will represent 56% of new deliveries and 44% will support market growth. The world fleet-in-service of jets with up to 130 seats will increase from 3,850 aircraft in 2013 to 6,580 by 2033. The value of all deliveries is approximately 300 billion dollars (list price).

70 to 130-Seat Jet Deliveries - Forecast by Region: North America, 2,010 (32%); Europe, 1,140 (18%); China, 1,020 (17%); Latin America, 700 (11%); Asia Pacific, 420 (8%); CIS, 380 (6%); Middle East, 250 (4%); Africa, 230 (4%), Total world, 6,250 from 2014 to 2033.

Embraer expects jets in the 70 to 130-seat category to sustain hub-and-spoke efficiency, to complement narrow-body operations, to provide an optimal balance of frequency and seats, and to encourage new market development with lower-risk, incremental capacity. Those roles will generate significant demand for new aircraft in the segment.

Embraer foresees worldwide demand for air transport, measured by revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), increasing an average of 4.8% annually through 2033. By then, demand will reach 13.6 trillion RPKs for all commercial aviation segments.

By region, the Middle East and China will lead with annual RPK growth of 7.1% and 6.8% respectively, followed by Latin America at 6.0%. Asia Pacific, the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) and Africa will each have growth rates of around 5%. Because they are more mature markets, Europe (3.9%) and North America (2.7%) will grow more slowly. By 2033, Asia Pacific and China will be the largest air travel markets in the world, accounting for a combined 40% of total global RPKs. Comparatively, Europe and North America will generate 36% of world demand.

Top Comments

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  • ChrisR

    20 years eh?

    At least those making these ambitious predictions will probably have moved on by then so won't be around to be sacked.

    No mention of the Chinese plane industry: oh, of course, they cannot get one jet engine of theirs to run after 10 years of 'development' (aka copying) and have to beg the Russians for ALL the engines they can sell them.

    The Ruskies though are getting pissed off with the Chin copying everything military that they sell to them and are considering shutting the door to new planes completely.

    Jul 19th, 2014 - 08:04 pm 0
  • ilsen

    I heard the Chinese will be buying quite a few from Brazil.

    But I expect once they have figured out how to copy them, trade will stall. However, considering what ChrisR says, Brazil may get a few years of business first...

    Jul 19th, 2014 - 11:13 pm 0
  • ChrisR

    @2 ilsen

    They can copy the airframe and reverse engineer the electronics but their lack of metallurgical skills led them to close down the engine factory.

    Japan won't sell them the metals they need for the engine core either so they are dead in the water with the engine project.

    Jul 20th, 2014 - 11:57 am 0
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