MercoPress. South Atlantic News Agency
Argentine candidate anticipates ‘dollars in excess’ if he is elected president in October
An Argentine presidential hopeful Mauricio Macri has vowed to eliminate the restrictions on the purchase of foreign currency that the Cristina Fernandez has carried out since 2011, and anticipated there will be ‘dollars in excess’ if he gets elected president in October this year. Read full article
Comments
Disclaimer & comment rulesI hope he give Elisa the job of chasing down all our stolen funds that the K's have hidden.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 02:53 am - Link - Report abuse 0I certainly will not be getting my hands in any of them. I'll give credit to the NorthAmoans, they are surely pulling one over the entire world with this 'dollar surge'.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 03:26 am - Link - Report abuse 0The problem is that this time, unlike the other ones, there is “nothing” behind this dollar rally: no 20% interest rates like in the 1980s, no Bretton-Woods like in the early 70s, no post-war boom like the 1950s, no gold-standard like before the 1930s.
There is NOTHING but fiat paper money and 0% rates and no gold. The dollar is going simply because its going up (more that the other currencies are falling).
When the trick is up, people will be holding worthless Washingtons. It's gonna happen, and too bad for those chasing after it they'll learn their lesson the hard way.
Nurse!
Mar 18th, 2015 - 03:35 am - Link - Report abuse 0Quick!
He hasn't taken his meds!
3 ilsen
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:03 am - Link - Report abuse 0and he's wearing his Argentine hospital patient gowns!
you know, the ones that never seem to have to bottom string done up, and they amble blithely around with their bum showing...
Nurse is whom you will be calling when your assets dwindle to nothing:
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:19 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://www.forbes.com/sites/marcprosser/2012/11/21/peter-schiff-on-the-crash-still-to-come-foreign-bonds-and-how-to-fix-the-us-government/
“A crash in the value of the US Dollar, and US Government debt which leads to hyperinflation. In Peter’s view all of the problems that we had before the 2008 “tremor” including too much debt, institutions that are too big to fail, and too much government intervention in the markets are all even worse now. Eventually people are going to “wise up” and stop buying US government debt. When that happens interest rates will skyrocket and we will have to either default, or seriously devalue our currency in order to pay bondholders back.”
@5 Trolley-Dolly
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0I am not from the USA.
Next!
(oh, btw. why are you posting links to 'comment' not authourity from THREE years ago?, the world has moved on, unlike you)
Right, like you all have been predicting CFK's downfall since what, 2007?
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0And Yankeeboy predicting 14 to 1 peso for 2012!!!! Still waiting.
That's EIGHT years... and you still haven't moved on!!!
I haven't predicted anyone's downfall, Chopper, I just laugh at your own obvious dysfunction. One more time. Have you EVER managed to talk anyone of either sex out of a burning car?
Mar 18th, 2015 - 05:12 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://i1290.photobucket.com/albums/b521/imoyaro/chopperdilemma2_zpsd8c87421.jpg
Didn't think so. So much for the “NoEthic Vanguard.” ;)
http://i1290.photobucket.com/albums/b521/imoyaro/chopperdilemma2_zpsd8c87421.jpg
My latest moniker is clever, and I have never praised my monikers. But this one is the best.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 06:07 am - Link - Report abuse 0You, I think, are in need for a stroll with the Troll!
I've never predicted CFK's downfall. Indeed I wholly support her presidency. It has done the Falkland Islands a world of good. Not to mentioned increased Australia's exports into markets Argentina can no longer service.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 07:21 am - Link - Report abuse 0But you do have to feel sorry for Argentineans. After all they truly know the definition of holding a worthless currency. Hardly surprising they predict it elsewhere.
Not even Germany lasted so long outside of world financial markets, Argentina is going in 16 years (since it hasn't really borrowed officially in markets since 2000), which proves how truly self-sufficient we can be. If there was less corruption and there wasn't the entire weight of the EUians, NorthAmoans, Jappars, Ozzers, Brazzils, Brittos, and Sinochians trying to undermine our economy, we would have proven by now that the entire “countries must cooperate, and free trade, and have CRONY capitalism” to prosper is preposterous nonsense.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 07:31 am - Link - Report abuse 0Chopper, quit trying to sound erudite. You aren't. Stick to what you know. Like murdering innocents. Like that Qom child who was allowed to die of malnutrition and tuberculosis while Coqui put on 10 kilos while in office. That's what you represent here. The NoEthic Scool of 'thought.” ;)
Mar 18th, 2015 - 08:13 am - Link - Report abuse 0http://i1290.photobucket.com/albums/b521/imoyaro/chopperlaff_zpsrpl58kjd.gif
I also have never predicted the downfall of Christina, can anyone prove otherwise?
Mar 18th, 2015 - 08:38 am - Link - Report abuse 0I have always thought she is 'the best General the Falklands never had' (ref. Isolde, I think? ). Her ineptitude and balderdash only helps to show why the Falkland Islanders would, and should, remain British.
@9
You the first to praise your latest monicker, and are probably quite proud of even knowing the word 'monicker '.
Sadly, in truth, you just suffering from hubris. Even the Pope knows this.
@13
Mar 18th, 2015 - 08:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0True, I told Enrique I was looking forward to her reelection this year. For one thing, she'd have to abrogate the constitution, (a mere bagatelle,) and then, no matter what was said or in print, Argentina would continue to be unable to attack its neighbors. You can't beat that. ;)
http://i1290.photobucket.com/albums/b521/imoyaro/chopperlaff_zpsrpl58kjd.gif
Comon Macri just get rid of AA, FpT ..........and YPF.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 10:37 am - Link - Report abuse 0CD2 He is going to have to do that, just to pay the bills with in the gigantic hole the K's have left.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 10:56 am - Link - Report abuse 0Hmmm...I wonder if that could be possible.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 11:37 am - Link - Report abuse 0I´m more eager to think that no matter who wins, we will experience a devaluation rather than a peso appreciation. That because of the current state of our economy, USD appreciation, and Brazil´s Real downgrade.
The extent of the damage seems to be too deep.
17
Mar 18th, 2015 - 12:12 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Best guess is Mega-devaluation in early 2016, peso will start appreciating rapidly by the following year if the government does things more or less right.
The question is if the next government is going to axe right away public deficit, or its going to engage in a gradual reduction of spending.
Take into account that the politicians are not going to say the things people don’t want to listen too until past the elections. So you cant really tell.
@9. You'd do better with RehipTroll. Fortunately, we're immune.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 12:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@11. Take a look at the date stamp on your 'comment'. Otherwise known as spam. Tell us how you get to 16 years?
@17. You might want to consider taking a leaf out of the book used by Sweden. Start from 21 August 1810. Sweden actually selected a 'foreigner' to be its ruler. Charles XIV John of Sweden. A Frenchman. Count Bernadotte. What nationality would be best? How about a Falklander. Economically, more knowledgeable.
@ 18 Good point
Mar 18th, 2015 - 01:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ 19 That has being my point for years; since we Argentinians have proved to be incapable to provide ourselves with a proper administration, we should look for it abroad. Glad to see I am not alone.
Let's just hope that Argentine presidential hopeful Mauricio Macri does not commit sucide in the next few months...
Mar 18th, 2015 - 02:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@20
Mar 18th, 2015 - 03:22 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You are about as Argentine as Mad Cow Disease.
In other words, never set foot here.
@ 22
Mar 18th, 2015 - 03:30 pm - Link - Report abuse 0what ?
:/
@ 11 STroll with the_TroLL
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0And what do you think the Chinese money your government is spending at the moment is, if it is not a loan by another name, at 7% interest?
@22
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0And you are about as Argentine as head chopping. Or Ucumars. Or being shot for your shoes and having your severed feet end up in an Umbanda ritual. ;)
@Klingon, CD2, SebaSvtz
Trolling Chopper aside, I really hope your country can turn what is happening around. As you guys have always made clear, things will get worse before they can get better. The Kleptocrats have set up whoever wins the election to fail, no doubt with an eye to bringing back a Kirchner after the president is forced to resign.
@21 Yeah. :(
This is so hilarious!
Mar 18th, 2015 - 04:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Strolltroll is accusing Steba is not being Argentine enough, but the troll is nearly unable to communicate in Castellano without using Google Translate...
LMAO
As Toby rightly pointed out I've been saying a crash is coming soon. It is so very hard to predict when something will happen but not IF.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 05:41 pm - Link - Report abuse 0There is a sh*tstorm ready to pour down on the Rgs. BCRA has just about used up their last credit car and payday loan. Its too bad that this mess will be left for the next Prez to clean up. I really hope you get someone sane but chances are that you won't.
Argentina will be poorer and dumber next year that's a given.
@20. Of course you're not alone. The garotte and guillotine are wonderful things. Execute Peronists. Execute trolls. Execute the stupid.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 05:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@23. Don't bother. You can execute it soon.
Cachanosky column today in LNOL
Mar 18th, 2015 - 07:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Let’s not fool ourselves into believing that a change of expectations because Kirchnerism is leaving is a good enough substitute of much needed reforms.”
A change of president will mean very little.
Mar 18th, 2015 - 08:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Argentina needs a change of values and norms. And that takes more than an election. It takes a generation.
I'm not sure the Argentinean people are up to it after more than 70 years of Peronism working its way into their education and minds.
The next president may stave off economic chaos for a while. Maybe even push it back a decade or more. But it will come. Without major changes, Argentina will continue to grow then crash then start again instead of continual incrementally and compounded growth with minor recessional setbacks.
@24
Mar 18th, 2015 - 11:45 pm - Link - Report abuse 0They are not spending that money on essentials. Just on the debt cycle. That is the difference, once Argentina truly gets rid of all the looser banks and this stupid crony capitalist system, we will never have to borrow money ever again.
@25
I've heard that before, about having my feet severed. Like some people have this fantasy of seeing very large feet detached from a person. However, very few people could have any use for the few shoes I do own, or sell them, so actually I'm probably rather safe from that since such idiots would want to make a quick profit and would try to steal normal sizes much smaller than mine.
@31
Mar 19th, 2015 - 12:30 am - Link - Report abuse 0As usual, you ignore the religious aspect. ;)
http://i1290.photobucket.com/albums/b521/imoyaro/chopperlaff_zpsamu9towd.gif
#28 Conqueror
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:05 am - Link - Report abuse 0“Execute Peronists...trolls...the stupid.”
Wow! I do not know how could we be so naive we could not find such a simple and easy solution to all of our problems. Only stay away when that happens. You could be at serious risk.
@32
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:39 am - Link - Report abuse 0And I thought that link would be some new gif showing my large severed feet. You are slipping.
No one mentioned “very large” feet or even “large” feet.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 07:51 am - Link - Report abuse 0Seems you wish this fact to be continually reinforced on here. Just means you have large shoes. Nothing more. Nothing less.
@30
Mar 19th, 2015 - 10:10 am - Link - Report abuse 0Leaving aside Argentine culture and lack of values, the point is with very few and simple policies, the economy can go a long way, and that is at least what I aspire the next gov't to do.
Yes a few simple ideals implemented into policies is the solution. Except you have to deal in the real world.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 12:37 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The unions and slum dwellers will never allow free market/Private property ideals to be implemented.
Never
Argentina will be poorer and dumber next year and so on and so on
Until and unless you get a strongman in place to eradicate the corruption and reeducated the Society the country is doomed to failure.
But this time it’s different. The next government is obliged to fight against those sectors you mention, not negotiate with them like in the 90s or bribe them like in the 2000s. There are no more resources left to negotiate or bribe them with.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If the next government doesn’t get bailed out by the IMF or WB then they will have to build up a capitalist productive system from scratch, not because of ideology, but out of necessity.
Urban middle class and agrarian and productive classes are sick and tired and have being waiting very patiently for over a decade being robbed blind. They will pass a bill on the peronists for 15 years wasted out of poisonous Kirchnerism.
Plus the most populist leftist venues of Anti K league are collapsing like a house of cards since the UCR convention as Sanz crushed them; Binner, Solanas, Cobos. The Ks and recycled Ks Massa, Scioli, and Randazzo are going down the drain.
Like it or not Macri-Sanz-Carrio will have their chance.
It will be interesting to watch. I would assume the next Prez must get an IMF bailout. Politically a hard choice but I don't see any other solution.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0By 2016 BCRA will be emptied, Chinese loans will be due, I imagine by that time all the bonds would be accelerated and due.
Argentina has never been in a mess like it is today.
Never
I doubt the USA will help, I can't see why they would bother.
WB fights poverty they don't bail out countries.
@38
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0That's right. Macri-Sanz will have a chance. However, there still is the “conurbano” factor. That is where the Peronist mafia reside. These crooks are the ones to watch out for. How do you get rid of the GBA Barons?
It will depend ultimately if he chooses to do swift surgical cuts and amputations that need to be done right away or he simply does a gradual reduction of the deficit like they tried in the PIGS, that ended swallowing the new administrations in Greece and Italy.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The first will be met with strong initial opposition but the political cost can be deposited on Kirchnerism.
On the other hand if he takes his time to consolidate power and cuts one thing at a time, my guess is that by the 4 months in office the population will start blaming the new government for the cuts and the economical woes.
@41
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I'd like that. An initial shock.
40
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:39 pm - Link - Report abuse 0The GBA barons as bad as they are need more of National funds than the next government would need of their votes. If the Peronist party remains in crisis and the Kirchnerist remain in court I dont see them much of a problem. That being said, they can still do significant damage.
41. I'd go for the swift action but even that doesn't fix the problem of having less than zero U$ and I am not sure the USA would grant an emergency loan from the IMF.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:43 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If Argentina is in civil unrest it doesn't have any effect in the USA or our allies so I think the USA might just let you sink.
Hard to say.
44.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 01:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I don’t see the money question really that important compared with getting the country to work and producing again. If the system works and is promising, the money will be there. A very bad administrator like Nestor Kirchner managed for many years just with what he had, I would say that Macri a former business man would be much better at it.
Nestor stole 10s of billions of U$ to keep afloat. I think it was around U$12B a year he rifled out of private companies (Anses for example).
Mar 19th, 2015 - 02:32 pm - Link - Report abuse 0You import 90% of your GDP for consumption and parts.
You need U$ for that
Plus BCRA owes around U$7-9B in currently due outstanding invoices
There's literally nothing left. The Soy from this year will go to clear some bills and bridge until the Ks are gone.
U$ is the key to a recovery and the only way I can see Arg getting any is through the IMF and I think in the short term it will be blocked.
@46
Mar 19th, 2015 - 03:03 pm - Link - Report abuse 0I agree with CabezaDura. If things were to become so bad, I wouldn't be getting job offers and I got 2 of them last week. Another one today. Two banks and one telco.
Same thing happened to some people I know. I bet they know something we don't. It almost looks like they are anticipating a victory for Macri.
Love is in the air ...
Unfortunately most people/companies never realize there's a crash coming until its already passed.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 03:31 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Good luck on the job!
@48
Mar 19th, 2015 - 04:00 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Thanks.
I haven't started yet. I still need to ponder if getting a job is better than being on my own.
Anyway, back to my point above, I'm not trying to prove that nothing will happen. Certainly, since 2012 there has been little demand for professional high skill jobs. Last February, job offers in this segment are on the climb. That means -specially coming from banks- that there are prospects of good business in certain sectors.
Of course, other kind of jobs are disappearing. Manufacturing will receive the most impact. Your previous posts on that subject were totally accurate.
* Unemployment will grow.
* Imported goods will be missing.
* Energy will be scarcer.
* People will become dumber.
But money will come back. You see, there is not lack of money. It is out there somewhere. You've done finance in this country. You should know what I'm talking about.
47.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 05:29 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Each businessman paid $50 K for a plate in the PRO dinner (240 tables in total, only two were vacant but were paid for anyway), that says more than any polls.
A year ago all fingers pointed to Massa.
49. Money will come back if it looks like the new Admin is not a typical Peronista.
Mar 19th, 2015 - 06:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0But there is a serious cash crunch hitting and that can't be easily fixed.
18 C. Dura
Mar 20th, 2015 - 06:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Take into account that the politicians are not going to say the things people don’t want to listen to until past the elections.”
These are the politicians we used to have before 2003--Carlos Menem being the best example.
Mauricio Macri, who until recently freely spewed his conservative, pro-corporation agenda, has recently changed tactics and began to praise government achievements such as the AUH.
The trick for most such opportunist politicians with unpopular corporate agendas is hide them and instead make people believe you are going to be there for them in order to get their votes.
Politicians like Nestor and CFK who actually stick to their word are rare, and that fact distinguishes them from most others.
If CFK stuck to her word then there'd be a hell of a lot of oil executives in jail for working with the Falkland Islands' government.
Mar 21st, 2015 - 02:47 am - Link - Report abuse 0More than 75% of CFK's achievements are smoke and mirrors.
SELECTIVE MEMORY.
Mar 21st, 2015 - 10:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0If even a conservative like macri says that he defends the concepts of juan peron, like social justice and equality, is because he knows perfectly that if he doesn't get votes from people who voted for kirchnerism, it will be too difficult for him to win the election. If he had to do it, in some way it shows that kirchnerism has won partially a cultural battle, that's why none of the precandidats dare to say that it's necesary to eliminate all the achievements that workers could get in all these years. I know that all those reactionaries who often invalid kircherism, instead of making serious critics to the falencies of c. f. k's government, will start saying that the achievements are mostly smoke and bla bla bla, perhaps they haven't seen yet that not even conservative politicians dare to defend the policies of the 90's.
On the other hand, he has a too selective memory, he tries to make people believe that he doens't agree on what peronism has made in the last 25 years, however he was a strong supporter of menem, like some integrants of fpv, even nestor and cristina were menemist in the past, however in their case, they had started making critics to convertivility since 1995, but there was not any critic or reflexion by all those conservatives who supported the neoliberal model.
On the other hand, he says that he doens't want to be a debtor, however debt in the city from buenos aires has increased a lot since 2007.
Finally, i want to say that i am disposed to discuss with many people, beyond wether they agree or not on my opinions, beside, i always read ALL the comments that many people make in reference to my lectures, however, if i dont' answer some of them, is because i'm not disposed to give entity to reactionaries who just insult me, in fact i have never liked such mediocre people.
“Finally, i want to say that i am disposed to discuss with many people, beyond wether they agree or not on my opinions, beside, i always read ALL the comments that many people make in reference to my lectures, however, if i dont' answer some of them, is because i'm not disposed to give entity to reactionaries who just insult me, in fact i have never liked such mediocre people.”
Mar 22nd, 2015 - 02:25 am - Link - Report abuse 0Learn how economics and business works, and then come back again if you want to debate... the same as for Enrique Massot. Im not interested in who said this, that or the other now nor in the 90s....
CABEZADURA2.
Mar 22nd, 2015 - 04:28 pm - Link - Report abuse 0This time i decided to answer you because unless you didn't insult me.
Respecting your suggerence,what makes you think that i don't read about economy?, the fact that i don't think like you, doens't mean that i know so little about it. I read so much about economy because i like it, beside, i want to try to understand such a difficult issue, anyway it's pretty obvious that we won't never agree on it, because we have too deep ideological differences, i respect your posture but i'm happy for being so different from you.
On the other hand, i think it's necesary to talk about the 90's, due to many of our problems are the legacy of that decade, beside, although most conservative politicians don't admit it publicly, you and i know perfecty that their ideas aren't much different from menem's, and i don't want to go back to those policies, i'm not interesting in having a low level of inflation, if there is a large number of unemployed people, it's well known that in social terms, there is nothing more dramatic than being unemployed.
Kirchnerism has committed many mistakes, and there are a lot of legitimate critics that anybody can make for them, however it's not honest to invalid the fact that unless many policies of the last 12 years helped a lot to improve the dramatic social situation of millions of compatriots.
Respecting macri's promess, it's too inocent to think that after he takes office, there will be a huge current of inverstments to the country, i think his words must be taken as what they really are, demagogical promesses of a campain.
Inflation exists because the government prints pesos. And inflation is negative on the long term as it destroys credit for investment and consumption. You will only have shit jobs at the supermarket or in the tourist sector on the Atlantic coast on a long weekend produced via inflation. On the long term it will fall like a house of cards like it will do at the end of this year.
Mar 22nd, 2015 - 10:51 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Unless you are talking about public sector jobs...Which I assume you are, that is simply theft. Because on a recessionary cycle like is happening now, private sector cuts its jobs, as there is less jobs there is less workers paying taxes, there is less money to pay for public empoyees that produce nothing.
You absorb them via the state, you have even less private sector to pay for a growing public sector. That is when a you pass Laffers curve, the more tax preasure you place to the economy the less revenue you have.
The Ks have more public employees than the Federal government of the US. Its suicide.
It really is this simple, its not about you disagreeing with me or having your ideology. You know or you don’t, and with all due respect you don’t.
The last 5 times the argentine state could not service its deficit the country collapsed.
And I repeat, it really is that simple.
#57 C. Dura
Mar 23rd, 2015 - 05:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Here we are again, reading about how “public employees produce nothing.”
Much to the contrary, a strong--and why not, efficient--public sector is a guarantee of stability and country control over key sectors of the economy.
Many governments in the past have purposely starved and let rot public corporations because they had plans to “privatize” (give them for cheap to friends or allies as Menem did).
Fact is, public or private corporations can both be very well or badly managed. Another fact: until further notice, private corporations seek their own profit. Sometimes that may be in tune with their customers' interests, sometimes may not. Having a good mix of both allows a country to exercise some control on prices. For example, keeping one state company selling gas may keep the private corporations from bilking customers every every time oil prices change or during long weekends and holidays. Not that Esso or Shell would like that of course.
Blah bla bla
Mar 23rd, 2015 - 08:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Your vision of economics is archaic. And your understanding of Argentine economic history is null.
Private companies may be very well or badly managed, but they don’t cost the taxpayer a cent. If they go bust, they go bust. Unlike public held companies.
“For example, keeping one state company selling gas may keep the private corporations from bilking customers every every time oil prices change or during long weekends and holidays. Not that Esso or Shell would like that of course.”
What you are actually saying is that you will subsidize holiday makers on periods of high demand of a product. If there is sufficient investment and stocks there should be no need from hiking the prices.
I live in the interior, why should I pay for the exodo turistico in January of mostly BsAs higher middle class??
Why should a shopkeeper in Santiago del Estero pay taxes for Aerolineas Argentinas, a service that he will never use and by average only 1% of Argentines have ever used (which I’m included in) and serves them no real purpose?
Marxism is a failure. When is it going to sink in??
CABEZA DURA2.
Mar 24th, 2015 - 01:56 pm - Link - Report abuse 0Sorry cabeza, but the lecture that you make about inflation is too partial, all those econochantas that we see on tv say all the time that the reason of inflation is monetary emission, beside they never say a word about abuse of oligopolic sectors that we have in important sectors like food and metal mechanic, in such an unbalanced economy like our's.
However, when i see the numbers of monetary emission of the last 11 years, i see that it had periods of more expansion than others, however inflation has always remained hight, , in fact, there is a very interesting article written by alfredo zaiat, published in pagina 12 in june of 2013, called, emisión de dinero, where he refutes with hard numbers the theory of all those econochantas. Anyway, i know that you are going to invalid his explanations because he works in a pro kirchnerist newspaper.
On the other hand, it's also too partial to say that most jobs created in the last 12 years are statal, beside, even if it was true, i don't care wether jobs are mostly statal or private, what i really care is that they aren't precarious (informales). Beside, the policies of these years provoked the creation of many small enterprices.
Respecting aerolineas, there you go again with you partial view, while it's true that all of us keep a. a with our taxes, it's also true that it's the only one airline which travels to the whole country, even it goes to those places where private airlines don't go, because they aren't profitable, then although we all pay it, it benefits all the provinces, and their regional economies.
Finally, i don't ignore that we have deficit, but you can't ignore the actual international context, which is too bad since 2008, and it prejudices our trade, then i think that in a context like this one, it's necesary to be counterciclic (contracíclico), if the deficit keeps the local demand, then i'm not against it.
HOW INFLATION WORKS (for Alfredo Zaiat & axel arg)
Mar 24th, 2015 - 02:48 pm - Link - Report abuse 0It’s very simple let’s suppose 4 cases, for simplification purpose let’s say a small scale economy
CASE 1
An X economy has the size 10.000 money units. $2000 that stay at home (savings) the rest $8000 is used for transactions. A supply of goods 800 units. Price per unit $10 [ resulted of dividing 8000/800]
CASE 2 [increased money supply]
We increase the money supply and the economy increases to 11000 money units. So people save $2000 and spend $9000 in transactions ($1000) more.
If the supply of goods remains constant 800 the price will then increase to $11,25 [$9000 money spent in transactions /800 units of goods. The inflation will be 11, 25%
CASE 3 [Less money used for savings and more for consumption as inflation forces the economy to let go of the money that losses value]
Money in circulation $11.000 (the same as before), but savings are reduced to $1000 and use $10000 for transactions. Supply is constant so $10000/800 units. Final price per unit $12,5. Inflation 12,5%
CASE 4 [decreased supply and recessionary scenario]
Money supply $11.000. Savings $1000, Money for transactions $1000. Units of goods reduced to 700.
Units of good final price $14,3. 43% accumulated inflation from case 1 with just 10 % emission.
All those cases have occurred since 2006 in the ARG economy to the present. Imagine how much with far more emission than 10%.
PS:
What Zaiat is actually doing is simply mention the history of debt emission via Lebacs & Nobacs to reduce the money supply that is circulating, its a tacit recognition that un backed money emission is the problem in fancy wording. Brazil Colombia Chile have accumulated U$S in the central banks since 2007. Argentina &VZLA lost them. The guy doesn’t know what he is talking about.
#59 C. Dura
Mar 24th, 2015 - 05:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0“Your vision of economics is archaic.”
Well, cabeza, your good free-market theories are just that. Theories. In reality, free-enterprise dogma works by privatizing the earnings while socializing the losses.
I could tell you about all the governments Argentina had since the Revolucion Fusiladora of 1955 threw out a constitutionally elected president.
We had it all in the three decades that followed. Short-lived elected governments and a lot of military or civico-military dictatorships. Each tried different models, every time with worse results for the population.
To top it all, the dictatorship that entered the scene exactly 39 years ago today had unlimited power to do as they pleased with the economy--and they did it, with their tristemente célebre economy minister Alfredo Martinez de Hoz.
What did they do? Dismantle, dismantle, dismantle. Import, import, import. On top of it, before exiting in 1983 they nationalized the foreign debt of private companies ($45 billion) planting the seeds for the default of 2001.
So much for your argument about private companies not costing the taxpayers.
@Enrique, I repeat your vision and understanding of economics is archaic and null. What you say is just crap that none take seriously.
Mar 24th, 2015 - 07:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0@ axel
As you can see I invalided Zaiat, not because he works and writes in Pagina 12 and Vision 7, I completely invalidated him from a basic, common sense and factual mathematical analysis.
“...beside they never say a word about abuse of oligopolic sectors that we have in important sectors like food and metal mechanic, in such an unbalanced economy like our's.”
There is no such thing as inflation created by monopolies. The reason again is simple. Suppose Im the owner of Baggio and I buy all the other juice and beverages industries of the country; Ades, Villa del Sur, Eco de los Andes even Pepsico Argentina and Coca-Cola Argentina. And I set the prices at whatever rate I please, people will simply stop buying juice and will consume other stuff that have nothing to do like Ice cream, alcoholic drinks, bicycles, shoes, petrol or whatever. The concept of monopoly is overrated in a free market. Because anybody would rather buy 30 units of Ice cream than one liter of fruit juice or 10 liters of fuel than 1 liter of juice or you name it.
A perfect monopoly would be the FIC in the Malvinas islands, the Dutch East India company or whatever, but those don’t exist any longer
Aerolineas helps no regional economies. it only helps Recalde Jr fatten his massive fortunes. If Private companies don’t go to certain areas, it means to say that they are not profitable. If they are not profitable as you well said by air lanes, let the few passengers that live there use cars, busses or trains.
Why are you subsidizing a few rich porteños that travel on empty planes all the way to Bariloche at a loss??
The same goes for international flights that fly at a loss. There is no use for them and a shopkeeper in Misiones is paying tax for tourist to go to MIA from Ezeiza and back again.
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