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Brazil's recession expected to continue next year according to top bank

Thursday, July 23rd 2015 - 08:52 UTC
Full article 34 comments

Brazil's recession will extend into next year, hurting President Dilma Rousseff's efforts to shore up public finances and arrest a sharp increase in unemployment, Itau Unibanco's chief economist said in a report on Wednesday. Ilan Goldfajn forecasts a drop of 2.2% in 2015 and 0.2% in 2016, down from previous estimates for a decline of 1.7% in 2015 and an increase of 0.3% in 2016. Read full article

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  • ilsen

    Vote Dilma! Vote PT!

    Ummm. .. no. That is not working out so well anymore.
    :-(

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 11:20 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Cue junk bond status.

    I said many years ago all the reforms that were made in the 90s would be lost by Lula/Dilma shortly.

    another one bites the dust

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 11:29 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Conqueror

    So it's a recession! How much of the money stolen through Petrobras and construction companies might be recovered? Election campaigns are expensive though, aren't they? Especially if you have to fly all over a country the size of Brazil.
    “busying himself with expanding the Workers' Party organizations around the country”
    Did he fly first-class everywhere he went or did he just buy an aircraft? Plenty of union funds to dip into.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 02:59 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    We'll come back to the sixteenth century. But to only you Western. The Brazil will lose investment grade status from West. This is a very good news! It means that our companies should go to the east to do business. It means that speculation will lose space. It means that or we survived on their own or we succumb to the yoke of foreign interests.

    Western capitalists have created so many rules to benefit themselves that when the world turns gives them a knot in themselves.

    Little will be left for the West.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OuiRZpFiiDM

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 03:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    4. U$800MM left China so far this year. They're selling assets to support the yuan as they drain their reserves.
    You can look to the East all you want but they're in as bad of shape as Brazil.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 03:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Tik Tok

    Oi Brasshole - where were you educated? The east will also be hesitant on touching Brazil for investment opportunities! Brazil needs money to develop and build something good for the people, presently they are big time in the red!

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 03:57 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    We BRICS are creating a new world. For the North-Americans only left the old Western Europe enslaved.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 04:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Skip

    And what does the BRICS new world order look like?

    B is for Brazil
    Suffering its worst corruption scandal and is in recession.
    R is for Russia
    Which invades neighbouring countries and is also in recession
    I is for India
    Where nearly 500 million people have no access to toilets & crap in the open
    C is for China
    When the stockmarket goes wrong, it just bans selling. It also lies about growth
    S is for South Africa
    Which has 26% unemployment

    Between invasions, recessions, corruption, unemployment and tanking stockmarkets the BRICS new world order look likes mayhem.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 04:18 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    BRICS has 60% of the money in the world. The reserves of the BRICS represent 400% of your debt!

    Do you want more?

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 04:23 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    I know you are stupid but none of the China is the USA and EU largest trading partner. They don't give a crap about Brazil and never will.

    India speaks English (badly) they are VERY closely aligned with the USA UK. They don't even know where Brazil is. They will eventually end up in a war with China.

    Russia and South Africa are non entities, failed states with starving people.
    Nobody give a crap about either.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 04:55 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • cornelius

    Brasileño attended habana university he was first in the class for you people who do no understand Cuba is at the forefront of economics achievement the model was copy by Brazil Argentina Ecuador Venezuela and Bolivia and if you look at the economics growth of those countries you will see how smart the leaders of those countries are if you put them together in one room their brains could not match the IQ of an ameba!

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:01 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    China already makes 50% of its trade in yuan. Yankeeboy, do not be silly.

    China wants to replace the United States. And China will do everything to isolate them. With the support of BRICS and the soft power of Brazil I have no doubt. China is the Rome of the time!

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:11 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    12. Show me the link to the China Yuan being 50% of its trade volume.

    http://indianexpress.com/article/explained/why-brics-trade-in-local-currency-doesnt-work-for-india-2/

    They may want to replace the USA but we do most of the trade in the world. So I don't see how that could ever be possible.

    China is failing it will never be rich or powerful.
    You need to get caught up on your news.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    Search trade between China and Russia this year. Search trade between Mercosur and China this year. Between Mercosur and Russia, Thailand, Indonesia, Angola, Africa.

    Look for news where the dollar was rejected for payment. Browse news!

    Do not expect me to give the fish. hahaha

    “Sua língua não é única!”

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:35 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    You are a retard. I knew you were lying so I asked you to prove it.
    You can't
    The U$ is used for the vast majority of trade.
    Next is Euro
    After that its statistically insignificant.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:46 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • cornelius

    @ brasileiro: You are true believer I admire your single mind it takes me when I was 5 years old the world was not complicated my question is: How do you remain that young I want your secret so I can make millions!

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:50 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    Every Englishman is a pig and all Western is a racist ass.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F19PnbWigSA&list=FLmXPTu1f8AdGlizWNiASx2A&index=42

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 05:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • cornelius

    That is why we run the world brasileiro if we have to count on you we will fail

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 06:04 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Brasileiro

    You should not count on us. China is closer to us, does more trade with us, and brings with it the citizenship of our people.

    China is really different. For the best!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8PReAbJKtg&list=FLmXPTu1f8AdGlizWNiASx2A&index=3

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 06:25 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • ChrisR

    @ 11 cornelius
    “ how smart the leaders of those countries are if you put them together in one room their brains could not match the IQ of an amoeba!”

    That's very insulting to my pet amoeba I'll have you know! :o)

    I never in my wildest nightmares thought there was anyone as stupid as Brasso and could still draw breath.

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 06:26 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Tik Tok

    #20 ChrisR - You have me splitting my sides chuckling re your comment on the Brasshole. Nice one

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 10:13 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    Every pen has a pig and all Western is has nice ass

    not very gentlemanly, was it.

    it should have said,
    Every Englishman is my idol,
    and the western world is great,

    that's more informative, don't you think...

    Jul 23rd, 2015 - 11:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Tik Tok

    Briton you can hardly call the things that the Brasshole says are intelligent!!! Regardless of where you come from on earth!

    Jul 24th, 2015 - 12:54 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    http://qz.com/456025/zombies-and-cannibals-the-horrors-of-chinas-financial-system-charted/

    China is on the brink of a huge disaster.

    I told ya...

    Jul 24th, 2015 - 11:27 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Briton

    23,
    True, but we can only try...

    Jul 24th, 2015 - 01:21 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    “Brazil's recession will extend into next year, hurting President Dilma Rousseff's efforts to shore up public finances and arrest a sharp increase in unemployment, Itau Unibanco's chief economist said in a report on Wednesday.”

    If I were Itau's chief economist, I'd be careful what I predicted for 2016...JUST JOKING....as unfortunately he has hit the nail on the head.

    How many of you remember that one year ago today, on 25th July 2014, a Santander executive sent out a report to the Bank's main clients, telling them that if Dilma won the elections, inflation would rise, the Real would lose value against the US$, and the stock market index would drop ?
    Dilma was offended and the government strongarmed Santander into firing the executive.....Lula got up on his dirty perch and shouted to the four winds, for all to hear , “that executive knows nothing of Brazil” !!!
    Well, well, well, whaddayu know ?? Inflation is already out of control, the US$ has hit its highest value against the Real since the end of 2002 when Lula won his first term, and the stock market is dropping.....
    So, the Santander executive was 100% right , while asshole Lulla was 100% wrong. No real surprise there.

    Just a very short note to the brASSHOLE , since his posts are too f*cking stupid to take seriously, “pare de cagar pela boca” !!

    @6 Tik Tok
    the brASSHOLE does not have an education ; even if he did, as Cornelius suggests @ 11, it was a complete and utter failure. It beats me how someone can be such an ignoraNus and a liar.

    Jul 25th, 2015 - 08:54 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • yankeeboy

    Brazil/Argentina/Venezuela is going to find out that they tied their economy to an anchor.
    China
    glug glug glug

    Jul 27th, 2015 - 05:16 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    The tendency that lead Brazil to ignore its better trading partners - USA and Europe - started with Lula 10 years ago. He never felt comfortable dealing with people with a far-higher intellect than his own , so he concentrated on countries whose rulers were cheap dictators. Brazil is now paying a heavy price, thanks to the 9-fingered asshole.

    Jul 27th, 2015 - 06:58 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    Why recession is not a big deal?It is necessary to be realistic. Actually, Brazil's economy was not too good in the past and is not too bad now. The current economic problems have a solution, but hard measures during 2015 are necessary to fix the recent mistakes. This is the best way to find a healthy growing path in the next years.
    http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2015/01/13/brazil-may-be-in-recession-in-2015-why-this-is-not.aspx
    “The textbook response would be to “see through”—ie, ignore—this inflation”
    http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2015/01/13/brazil-may-be-in-recession-in-2015-why-this-is-not.aspx

    Jul 31st, 2015 - 01:07 am - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @29
    “Actually, Brazil's economy was not too good in the past and is not too bad now. ”

    Really ? more like was “improving in the past”, and is “not too good now”...

    Jul 31st, 2015 - 08:07 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    30 Jack Bauer
    Thats because of a total reliance on China buying Brazilian commodities. Once China's economy faltered, then the ripple effect was inevitable.

    Jul 31st, 2015 - 09:24 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @31 Terence
    I'm not disagreeing with you....just saying that the current situation is the result of loads of wrong decisions over the past 10 years....the reason why Lula's first two years - completing the PT's 12 years - were successful, is simply because Lula did not really expect to win, and when he did, he had absolutely no notion of what he had to do...so, thankfully , he decided to allow FHC's policies to carry on without any significant changes, not to mention that the world boom in 2004 and 2005 , literally 'dragged' Brazil into a very comfortable position (USD reserves) ....Brazil could have achieved so much more if the PT government hadn't allowed trade with the USA and Europe slip through their fingers and then put all their eggs in one basket ...China.
    Shortsightedness, and incompetence, at its best.

    Aug 01st, 2015 - 04:05 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Terence Hill

    32 Jack Bauer
    Well I agree with you on that, as the principal of diversification is usually considered the safest option. The government will of course wear it as they well they should. But as we both know all leaders are not experts on all facets of governorship. So the question is who was dispensing the financial advice that was being relied on by the government of the day.

    Aug 01st, 2015 - 07:02 pm - Link - Report abuse 0
  • Jack Bauer

    @33 Terence
    “So the question is who was dispensing the financial advice that was being relied on by the government of the day.”

    Afraid I cannot remember who Lula and Co. had advising them in Lula's second term - when the rot set in - but one thing for sure : whoever it was, had to be politically aligned with the Party.....the problem started there, instead of getting the best man for the job, i.e., prioritizing professionalism , the PT has always favoured the political decision. So, which ministers today - aligned with the PT - are skilled, and proven professionals in their respective fields of activity ?? None come to mind.

    Aug 01st, 2015 - 09:47 pm - Link - Report abuse 0

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