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Markets estimate Brazil's recession will spill over to 2016, says Central bank

Tuesday, August 18th 2015 - 09:15 UTC
Full article 8 comments
The US dollar will continue to climb against the local currency: up from R$ 3.40 to R$ 3.48 in 2015 and from R$ 3.50 to R$ 3.60 in 2016. The US dollar will continue to climb against the local currency: up from R$ 3.40 to R$ 3.48 in 2015 and from R$ 3.50 to R$ 3.60 in 2016.
Popular anger over president Rousseff's performance and mismanagement of the economy prompted Brazilians to stage the country's third mass protest Popular anger over president Rousseff's performance and mismanagement of the economy prompted Brazilians to stage the country's third mass protest
According to the Central bank Focus survey the market forecasts a retraction of the Brazil's GDP of 0.15% in 2016. According to the Central bank Focus survey the market forecasts a retraction of the Brazil's GDP of 0.15% in 2016.

The Brazilian Central Bank weekly Focus Bulletin released on Monday indicates, for the first time, according to the prevailing opinion among financial institutions that the current recession of the country's economy will extend well into 2016. According to Focus the market forecasts a retraction of the Brazil's GDP of 0.15% in 2016.

 A week ago the survey anticipated 'stability' for next year, while the forecast for this year was of a 2.01% retraction, higher than the 1.97% of the previous estimate.

The bulletin also shows, for the first time in 17 weeks, that the inflation estimate remained stable at 9.32% for 2015. As for next year, last week's estimate was 5.43% and now stands at 5.44%. However the US dollar will continue to climb against the local currency: up from R$ 3.40 to R$ 3.48 in 2015 and from R$ 3.50 to R$ 3.60 in 2016.

The Real is now at a 13 year low following a 24% collapse against the US dollar this year.

These estimates are a complete reversal of the 1.8% growth forecast at the start of the year and underscores how Brazil's economy has deteriorated sharply in recent weeks amid the continued fall in commodity prices, growing public infighting, rising inflation and unemployment and ongoing corruption scandals.

Popular anger over Brazil's recession and president Dilma Rousseff's performance and mismanagement of the economy prompted Brazilians to stage the country's third mass protest this year over the weekend. The president's approval rating is down to 8%, the lowest ever for a Brazilian president and many of those protesting on Sunday were calling for her impeachment.

Categories: Economy, Politics, Brazil.

Top Comments

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  • ChrisR

    What is it with the Brazil Nuts, can they never face the truth?

    The truth is clear to see, early 2016 is a laughable date by which the corruption will have been investigated because there are more organizations to 'investigate'.

    Until the depth of the corruption is known don't expect international investors to put their money into what is seen as a country run by a bunch of crooks, which of course it is: they need to go as well.

    Aug 18th, 2015 - 10:59 am 0
  • Skip

    Wow that's quite a turn around... from 1.8% growth to negative!

    Aug 18th, 2015 - 11:07 am 0
  • yankeeboy

    This is just the beginning, they mostly export commodities and they're 30% lower than they were at the height with Soy becoming unprofitable this year, the U$ is also on a multi year upswing with most saying there's another 30% appreciation yet to come. All of those bonds in U$ that the companies and the country has just become a lot more expensive.
    They've got a long way to go.
    Watch PBR as PBR goes so does the country.

    Aug 18th, 2015 - 12:15 pm 0
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